By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
Threats presented by China, Russia, Iran and various non-state terrorist groups now present the Pentagon with a potentially unprecedented mixture and scale of potential challenges, several of which could collide with or intersect with one another at any given point in time.
Could the US and its allies counter terrorism in the Middle East, contain China and defend Taiwan in the Pacific all while maintaining a strong Ukraine-supporting NATO deterrence posture against Russia? One thing is clear, and that is that the Pentagon does not want to find out. The global security community could well be balancing precariously upon a fragile inflection point, resulting in a simultaneous eruption of violence in the Pacific, Middle East and Eastern Europe.
The pressing and somewhat self-evident question here is quite simply .. can the Pentagon handle this? How are they handling this? Is it possible to maintain sufficient readiness across what might be described as “three” war fronts? There has been much speculation and analysis regarding the Pentagon’s ability to manage a two-front, multi-theater conflict …. But what about a three-pronged conflict?
This possibility likely received more attention following the Pentagon’s announcement Nov 21 that a US military AC-130J Ghostrider attacked an Iran-backed militant group after the group used a ballistic missile to attack U.S. and coalition forces on Al-Asad Airbase, Iraq.
Could the US defend Taiwan from a surprise Chinese amphibious attack, intervene in Eastern Europe to counter a Russian move into NATO areas and stop an Iranian attack on Israel or intensified terrorist actions in the Middle East? The Pentagon does appear to be taking steps to make sure it does not have to find out, as senior DoD leaders say the responsive force-positioning deterrence posture in the Middle East has proven effective. Dual carriers have been in the Mediterranean, destroyers have been intercepting Houthi-missiles in the Red Sea, US force presence has been massively increased throughout the Middle East and the Pentagon has not hesitated to take measured, precision counter strike actions against Iran-backed proxy terrorist groups in Syria and Iraq.
Dr. Mara Karlin, currently performing duties as the Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, told reporters the US response in the Middle East does appear to be having the desired effect …. That is preventing massive escalation of the Israel-Hamas war.
“Right now, it is very clear I think that the surge of assets, putting troops on prepared to deploy order status, for example, all of that has been important for one of our key priorities, which is to contain this conflict and to signal that anyone who thinks it would be a good idea to escalate should realize that’s actually a quite terrible idea,” Karlin told reporters at the Pentagon, according to a DoD transcript.
Karlin extended this thinking even further and suggested that, if necessary, the Pentagon is prepared to fight terrorism while maintaining its current deterrence efforts in both Europe and the Pacific.
“Even as we focus on the pacing challenge presented by the PRC and manage the acute threat posed by Russia, we must remain vigilant in the face of persistent threats, including those posed by terrorist organizations. At the same time, we maintain the ability to respond to contingencies without major impacts to the European or Indo-Pacific theaters,” Karlin said.
Kris Osborn is the Military Affairs Editor of 19 FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
