By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The People’s Liberation Army is working intensely to improve precision targeting and guidance for its “Over-the-Horizon” Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles, developments which potentially introduce significant implications regarding its highly-touted DF-26 “carrier-killer” missile capable of traveling 2000 miles to a target off shore.
China’s highly-touted DF-21D and DF-26 “carrier killer” anti-ship missiles have for quite some time been a focus of discussion among Pentagon weapons developers as they are central to the PLA’s anti-access/area-denial strategy. The concept is simple, as the missiles would be used to prevent US Navy warships and carriers from seeking to attack or project power within a few-thousand miles of the Chinese coast.
Chinese government-backed newspapers have routinely discussed successful “carrier-killer” missile tests and suggested these weapons would quickly destroy US Navy carriers, yet the actual series of variables related to a question of this kind seem far more nuanced and complex. Of course there is the question of the increasingly sophisticated and layered US Navy ship defenses, yet there have also been questions as to the accuracy of the DF-26. How precise is the weapon? Can it track and hit moving targets and maintain its accuracy at those ranges? Many have raised questions about the ultimate extent of the threat, and the Pentagon’s 2023 China report points to current Chinese areas of technological emphasis which might suggest that indeed it has needed to improve the guidance of its “carrier-killer” missiles.
The Pentagon research on China’s military, an annual text prepared for Congress, explains that Chinese military modernization efforts are sharply focused on improving targeting for its anti-ship-guided missiles, a clear indication that indeed its highly touted “carrier-killer” missile may need substantial targeting and guidance improvements. While many have taken note of the range of the DF-26 and the Pentagon seems to take the threat seriously, the findings explained in the Pentagon’s China report suggest that the “carrier killer” missiles may be challenged to achieve advanced levels of accuracy and guidance.
“The PLAN recognizes that long-range ASCMs require a robust, over-the-horizon (OTH) targeting capability to realize their full potential. To fill this capability gap, the PLA is investing in joint reconnaissance, surveillance, command, control, and communications systems at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels to provide high-fidelity targeting information to surface and subsurface launch platforms,” the Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China states.
Command and Control and reconnaissance could prove critical to Chinese efforts to improve the accuracy of its anti-ship missiles, as weapons with two-way “datalinks” and advanced seeker technology are able to adjust in flight to changing target information. This could prove critical to China’s effort to refine the guidance systems for its DF-26 to improve its ability to track and destroy moving targets or maintain a “target track” from beyond the standard field of regard or line-of-sight horizon.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
