by Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The US Navy’s Flagship, powerhouse USS Ford “supercarrier” is now within actual striking distance of the Odessa, Ukraine, the Black Sea and Ukraine’s entire Southern coastline.
On deployment in the 6th-Fleet theater, which includes the Mediterranean Sea, the Navy’s Ford has recently transited critical waters near the Greek Islands on deterrence missions with the Hellenic (Greek) Navy and is now visitlng Antalya, Turkey, a key port within short, reachable distance of the Black Sea. Antalya is on the coast of Southern Turkey bordering the Mediterranean, and the US Navy has published photos of the Ford at port there for a collaborative and strategic visit with a key NATO ally.
Of great significance, a look on the map shows Antalya is only 1,060 kilometers from Odessa Ukraine and merely a few hundred miles from the Black Sea coastal areas. Perhaps even more compelling, Istanbul is only 370 miles from Odessa Ukraine, meaning Carrier Flight Wing operations could launch jets able to land and refuel in Istanbul and quickly be within striking range of Odessa and the Black Sea. Therefore, USS Ford-launched F-35Cs, F/A-18s and other air assets are in position to protect Ukraine’s coastline.
F-35C Within Range of Ukraine from Ocean
Certainly US and allied 5th-generation aircraft are within range of striking Russia from multiple locations throughout Eastern Europe and it is no surprise that more F-35s have been moved to Poland in response to the Ukraine war to send a message of deterrence. However, now .. the US Navy’s F-35C can hold Russia at risk from the Black Sea in a clear, decisive and uprecedented manner. The US Navy’s F-35C is listed multiple places as having an operational range of greater than 1,200 nautical miles, when fully loaded with fuel. This not only increases dwell time for target adjustments over hostile area but simply extends reach; the F-35C could reach Odessa and the Southern Ukrainian Coastline from Antalaya … where the Ford has been.
Message to Russian Counteroffensive
Obviously the US Navy has no intention of attacking Russian forces with any kind of air attack campaign or Black Sea combat operation, yet operating the Ford in this kind of close proximity to the Black Sea and Ukraine sends an unmistakeable deterrence message to Russia. It is likely not coincidence that the US Navy is within clear operational range of Russian forces along the Ukraine coastline or Russian Naval assets in the Black Sea, just as Ukraine’s counteroffensive begins to surge forward with more momentum and progress.
Perhaps moving US Naval airpower within striking range of Ukraine is intended to send a strong message of strategic deterrence to Russia in support of the ongoing counteroffensive.
Simply put, the presence of massive amounts of US Naval airpower is likely designed to remind Russia of their vulnerability to US attack should they launch nuclear weapons. Russian threats to use advanced tactical nuclear weapons systems are taken quite seriously by Ukraine, NATO and the West. While many observers do not think Putin would put his own survival, or the survival of his regime, at risk of complete destruction by a Western nuclear counterattack. At the same time, it is both realisitic and conceivable that Putin and the Russian regime might somehow calculate that a limited, or tactical nuclear attack might be winnable. This would be a strategic gamble based upon the assumption that the US and its Western allies would not launch a massive, catastrophic nuclear strike in response.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
