By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
Ukraine’s intense and ambitious counteroffensive can likely have some success penetrating the perimeter or outer boundary of mechanized forces through a combination of armored attack, rockets, artillery and drone operations …. Yet the ability to actually take and “hold” territory previously held by Russian forces will likely require a much larger, yet dispersed and networked mechanized force.
The Pentagon is massively revving up delivery of heavy armor to Ukraine in a large-scale, multi-billion dollar support package including Tanks, Bradleys, Strykers and Armored Personnel Carriers in what could prove to be a substantial boost to the ongoing counteroffensive.
Ukrainian forces and their NATO and Pentagon allies are likely quite aware of this, which is part of why DoD has set up specific weapons contracting and manufacturing vehicles to help fast-track needed weapons to Ukraine.
While Ukraine’s counter offensives are likely being met with success in many instance, the ability to truly push back and “remove” occcupying Russian forces will likely need much more heavy armor than its current force of existing and rapidly arriving Abrams, Leopard, Challenger II and T-72 tanks and Bradleys.
Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder declined to offer a specific delivery timeline but did say Abrams would arrive by the end of the year, according to a Pentagon transcript.
These factors are likely a large reason why the just announced massive security package assistance to Ukraine contains hundreds of armored vehicles. Overall, the Pentagon has provided $43.7 billion.
Heavy Armor to “Hold” Territory
The latest drawdown is, as expected, very heavy on air defenses, artillery and drones … yet the most significant and impactful dimension to this new support will likely be the new commitments of heavy armor. Air defenses, drones and artillery are of course desperately needed by Ukrainian forces, and much of this is included in the Pentagon’s package, yet the new support effort is also very heavy on “heavy armor.” It includes more than 70 Abrams and T-72 tanks along with as many as 186 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles and 189 Strykers. The support effort also more than doubles the amount of Strykers in Ukraine from 90 up to nearly 300. This is quite significant because, as wheeled vehicles, Strykers can move infantry forward much faster than tracked vehicles and reinforce advancing infantry. Strykers can travel as fast as 60mph and carry infantry in large numbers to support advancing Ukrainian fighters.
Once a forward formation is breached by approaching Ukrainian forces, Stryker and Bradley vehicles can transport armed infantry under armor for more dismounted, dispersed kinds of anti-armor attacks such as those which have proven effective for months during the war.
This armored line up more than doubles the roughly 100 Bradleys now on the ground in Ukraine and adds a significant force of heavy Abrams and T-72 tanks to support Leopards, British Challenger II and T-72s already on the ground. This most recent support package of course includes anti-armor weapons which have been so effective in destroying Russian tanks, such as the Javelin. Multiple open-source publications, and the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, have catalogued thousands of destroyed Russian tanks. publication called Oryx, for instance, tracks Russian vehicle losses very closely with documentation and publishes hundreds of pictures of confirmed destruction of Russian tanks.
While these kinds of anti-armor weapons have generated worldwide focus for their ability to target and destroy tanks, they are primarily effective as dismounted, decentralized kinds of hit-and-run defensive ambushes and do not necessarily enable an ability to take and “hold” new territory. Even if drones and artillery exact a toll upon occupied Russian forces, there will still likely be a need to “hold” the recaptured land with armored vehicles, forward bases and supply lines. Without enough heavy armor, however, these efforts are likely to yield few lasting results.
This is why is it not at all surprising to notice that recent support packages to Ukraine have included logistics support such as tactical trucks, supplies, ammunition and other items critical to seizing and occupying territory. Forward bases need to be set up and a secure logistics and supply trail need to be established to ensure forward operating forces have sufficient food, fuel, ammunition, weapons and medical supplies. Recent support packages have therefore not surprisingly included large troop transport trucks and tactical wheeled vehicles, platforms which are critical to logistics support and sustained forward presence. This most recent support effort includes as many as 2,000 Humvees and 500 secure MRAPs for troop transport, efforts likely to prove vital to any continued Ukrainian advances.
There are several additional critical components to this, such as the continued effort to supply Ukraine with drones, ISR, artillery and massive amounts of ammunition. Without an ability to “see,” “detect,” and “target” Russian forces, additional armor is unlikely to have as much of an effect. The critical question, however, is simply a matter of time. How long will it take for extra heavy armor to arrive, as the counteroffensive is going on now. Should the majority of this new heavy armor arrive months from now, Ukraine may no longer be a position to maximize their impact build upon progress with the counteroffensive.
Senior Pentagon officials explain that exact delivery timelines will not be available for security reasons but that tanks will arrive by the end of the year.
“From an operational security standpoint, I don’t want to get into specific timelines, other than we’re — we’re confident that we can provide those tanks when we said we would, which would be before the end of this year. And by all accounts, the training has gone well for those tank crews, but certainly at the appropriate time, we’ll — we’ll provide updates, in terms of delivery,” Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters Aug 14, according to a Pentagon transcript.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
