By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The Chinese and Russian Navies have launched massive, joint “four-day” Naval warfare preparation exercises in the Sea of Japan in a transparent effort to demonstrate power, intimidate Japan and Taiwan and send a message of Russian-Chinese cooperation regarding security in the Pacific.
The now-underway exercise, called Northern/Interaction 2023 includes Russian and Chinese warships conducting a range of maritime combat operations to include anti-submarine missions, sea-and-air escort of ships, naval combat and securing communications in the Sea of Japan, according to reports published in the Chinese government-backed Global Times newspaper.
The paper says the exercises include Chinese Frigates and Type 052D destroyers along with as many as 30-aircraft such as the J-16 fighter jet, Y-20 cargo-transport plane, KJ-500 early warning surveillance aircraft and the Z-20 helicopter.
The Chinese and Russians have been conducting joint training exercises over the course of many years, yet this current demonstration does seem to represent an escalation to an extent, given that it is aimed at the Sea of Japan. The Global Times specifically cites comments from Japanese leaders explaining that a “Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency.” Citing this comment, the PRC-backed Global Times indicates that the Russian-Chinese naval war drills are aimed at intimidating Japan and sending a message of resolve regarding the unification of Taiwan.
The exercise raises key questions when it comes to the current global warfare environment. It is not clear if China is providing any substantial or material support to Russia’s efforts in Ukraine, yet the concern is without question on the Pentagon’s radar. The exercises to indicate a Russian interest in projecting an image of continued power amid its devastating, visible and widely known losses in Ukraine. However Russian naval power has for many years been far less “daunting” than its large ground force, missile arsenal and high-performance fighter jets.
The Chinese Navy would indeed seem to pose a serious threat to Japan and Taiwan, yet it is not clear if Russian Naval assets would do much to impact the threat or capability equation. This is particularly true because Russia’s lone aircraft carrier is still inoperable and dry docked for repairs. However, Russia’s large and technologically advanced fleet of submarines would clearly present a threat to Japan, Taiwan and the US in the Pacific, should they be employed in any military effort.
These factors are likely why the US and Japan continue to prioritize forward presence and security in the Pacific and also ensure 5th-generation air superiority. The Japanese have recently placed a massive, multi-billion F-35 buy and the US Navy emphasizes readiness and forward presence regarding strategic waterways in the Pacific.
Given that China’s J-20 is land launched and the PLA Navy’s carrier-launched J-31 5th-gen aircraft does not seem to exist in impactful numbers, the US and allied advantage in the Pacific clearly seems to come from the air. Not only does the US maintain a steady presence in the Pacific, but its America-class amphibs, for example, can travel with as many as 13 F-35Bs. US Pacific Command has also conducted dual-carrier war preparations in the Pacific to “scale” power projection capability. A combination of carrier-launched F-35Cs and amphib-launched F-35Bs, not to mention a fast-growing Japanese F-35 fleet within range could potentially exact a decisive advantage. Maritime power in the Pacific or Sea of Japan will have only a marginal impact without any kind of air superiority, something which the US seems favored to establish. South Korea is also an F-35 nation, as are Singapore and Australia, so there are indications that decisive 5th-generation air power could be brought to bear upon any Chinese-Russian Naval attack in the Pacific.
Kris Osborn is the Military Affairs Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Master’s Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
