By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
(Washington DC)
Many recall the Russian 2014 annexation of Crimea in which Putin’s forces invaded and took-back the Crimean Peninsula. The US and NATO watched closely nearly 10 years ago and former Commanding General of Army Futures Command Gen. John Murray called Russia’s military performance in Crimea a “wake-up” call for the US military.
Observers credited the Russian military for effectively employing cutting edge EW warfare tactics, ISR, drone attacks and manned-unmanned teaming.
Russia’s military performance caused concern at the Pentagon all those years ago, yet Ukraine’s military seems to have re-written the script and changed the West’s assessment of the Russian military. While the Pentagon is by no means dismissing the Russian military as a threat, its performance throughout this past year has raised many questions.
In fact, Russia’s inept combat performance is leading Ukraine to want to “reverse” the loss of Crimea from 2014 and “take back” the territory from Russia. The possibility is looking increasingly realistic.
If Ukraine decides to attack Crimea and make an ambitious move to reclaim its territory lost in 2014, would that immediately start a conflict between Russia and NATO? Given that Ukraine is already launching a counteroffensive into key Russian held areas, it would not seem likely that such a move would or should instantly spark a confrontation between Russia and NATO.
Putin, however, sees this differently and has reportedly indicated that a Russian attack on Ukraine would constitute a violation of a “red-line” kind of limitation, and therefore provoke a Russian war with NATO.
The question is far from being resolved, as Ukraine’s ambition to retake and reclaim Crimea is quite clear and well established. Ukrainian President Zelensky was recently quoted in Newsweek saying “by returning Crimea, we will restore peace….. This is our land, Our people. Our history. We will return the Ukrainian flag to every corner of Ukraine.”
Recapture Crimea?
While multiple press reports say Russia is moving heavy reinforcements in the vicinity to defend Crimea, the prospect of a Ukrainian attack on Crimea seems entirely realistic. The progressive arrival of armored vehicles such as Bradleys and Abrams tanks, for instance, will increasingly give Ukraine added ability to launch and sustain significant mechanized, armored offensives into Crimea. Should Ukraine have the weapons and resolve to “penetrate” Russian defenses in Crimea, the existence of sufficient amounts of heavy armor such as infantry carriers and tanks could potentially enable Ukraine to take and “hold” Crimea. The ability to maintain any kind of occupation of Crimea would also require an established and well fortified supply and logistics train. Fortunately for Ukraine, Pentagon shipments to Ukraine in recent months have increasingly included tactical trucks for troop and supply transport, tactical vehicles for mobility as well as other critical logistical items. Bradleys in particular could help advance Ukrainian infantry into positions to break through Russian defenses and occupy territory.
Yet another reality with Crimea is simply that Russia’s tank and armored vehicle inventory has been decimated by Ukrainian attacks, and while Russia does still likely maintain a sizeable numbers advantage over Ukraine when it comes to ground forces and equipment, it simply may not be sufficient to repel Ukrainian advances. As for Ukraine, however, it seems they will likely need to “mass” forces in impactful numbers to succeed in re-taking Crimea. This might prove difficult for Ukraine, as thousands of their forces are already deeply immersed in holding positions and launching counter offensives throughout the warzone.
On the surface, it does not seem as though an attack on Crimea would necessarily be much different than any attack on parts of Russia or even Russian-held parts of Ukraine. Therefore, while this could be a “red line” for Putin, it seems more likely that such rhetoric from the Kremlin is more likely aligned with the kinds of threats and intimidation tactics Putin has engaged in for quite some time.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
