By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
“To be, or … not to be .. that is the question.” While Hamlet may have lingered in a melancholy stasis, paralyzed by indecision and grief, the Pentagon may be “coming off the fence” regarding its 6th-generation Next Generation Air Dominance stealth fighter. However, there is little confirmed information and many questions still hang in the balance. There are many who make a credible argument about cost concerns, yet the merits of a manned fighter and the threat equation are also likely driving the deliberations.
A manned, stealthy AI-enabled high-speed 6th-gen stealth fighter may blast through a haze of ambiguity and fly into the future as a paradigm-changing attack platform.
Therefore, despite former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall’s decision to “pause” and re-evaluate the potential existence of NGAD, there are now increasing signs the project may resurrect itself from the ashes of termination – like the mythological Greek Phoenix reborn from the ashes of its own destruction…and once again take to the sky with boundless power and promise.
However, there are still many unknowns and, given the modernization potential for the F-35, there may be a strong argument for prioritizing unmanned systems and there is certainly a reality that making an adjustment to NGAD may save money.
The ambiguity was quite significant for months, given the apparent contradiction or juxtaposition between two seemingly opposite trajectories; the Biden Administration’s 2025 budget request of $2.75 billion for NGAD was “torched,” “discarded” or simply cast-off into a haze of uncertainty in the Summer of 2024 when Kendall “paused” the program due to cost concerns.
An interesting Congressional Research Service analysis in January 2025 cited “budget” concerns as the primary reason for Kendall’s pause, as the service was unclear if it could afford a full B-21 program and Sentinel ICBM replacement program. The thinking was that perhaps lower-cost unmanned systems might prove effective meeting the operational requirement.
Skepticism must have quietly reverberated off of the walls in the Pentagon, because many questioned the wisdom of this decision given the fast-growing threat environment. There are now signs that advocates for a fully-supported, fully-funded 6th-generation air attack platform may be exploding through previous hesitations, as the NGAD’s engine program could be surging forward at full pace.
On January 27, the Pentagon awarded two $3.5 billion NGAD engine development deals to General Electric and Pratt & Whitney; prototype engines are slated to emerge by 2032, and the large contract is certainly a clear, decisive step toward fully developing the NGAD in a manner that had previously been anticipated.
Two Chinese 6th-Gen Fighters
There are certainly many variables likely informing this equation, as many weapons developers and decision makers are of the view that the US simply “must” fully develop the NGAD program. The first and perhaps most obvious reason appears to be driven by the current threat environment, as both Russia and China are fast-tracking 6th-generation stealth fighter programs.
In early 2025, images of two Chinese 6th-generation fighters blasted out on social media, generating worldwide analysis and speculation regarding the potential sophistication of the new, never-before-seen aircraft. Could the sudden arrival of these images have pushed Pentagon decision-makers beyond any uncertainty toward a path of clear, accelerated NGAD development? This certainly could make sense as a factor.
However, for quite some time many expert weapons developers have strongly encouraged Pentagon decision-makers to sustain and even accelerate NGAD long before any new Chinese prototypes appeared on social media. The reasons are clear, as there are signs of an entirely new sphere of promising technologies breaking through into the realm of operational possibility, such as AI-enabled sensing, targeting and navigation, new sensing technologies and paradigm-changing stealth configurations. Therefore, it would make little sense or arguably even be dangerous not to fast-track these 6th-gen capabilities in light of modern threats.
Also, while the processing, analytical and problem solving speed of AI continues to both accelerate and massively increase in scope, there is still a strong argument for ensuring a 6th-gen fighter has the capacity to be “manned.” Clearly unmanned systems can leverage new generations of autonomy, AI-enabled navigation, networking and sensing, yet there are still many attributes unique to human consciousness which algorithms are unlikely to replicate. There is still an indispensable need for human decision making to operate in tandem with high-speed, AI-enabled computing.
Computers Can’t Feel Joy
As promising and as seemingly limitless as AI might appear to be, mathematically generated algorithms can’t replicate the more subjective nuances fundamental to human cognition. Human decision making remains critical to air war success, as it must leverage its unique properties while fortified by massive, high-speed, AI-generated analysis. What happens if an AI-enabled sensing system encounters something that is not part of its database? What about human ethics, emotions, intuition and cognition? Can AI accurately approximate these distinctly human phenomena?
F-35 Future
Questions relevant to the F-35 greatly inform this equation as well, in large measure because the Pentagon plans to continuously upgrade the F-35 such that it remains relevant and cutting edge into the 2070s and beyond. This seems to be a worthwhile ambition, given the massive extent to which software, computing and sensing upgrades can be integrated into the existing airframe design. In recent years, incremental software drops have enabled the F-35 to become an almost entirely different aircraft by upgrading computing, expanding the weapons envelope and further integrating AI. For these reasons and others, it seems quite possible that that F-35 can remain relevant and modernized for decades into the future to keep pace with the evolving threat. Specifically, modernized F-35s will be able to drop the high-tech Stormbreaker bomb able to track moving targets out to 40 nautical miles, collaborative bomb dropping with programs like Golden Horde will enable weapons to autonomously share data and adjust in flight, and upgrades to air-to-air weapons such as an “off-boresight” targeting capability built into the AIM-9X are all examples of how the F-35 is evolving to a changing threat environment
New Stealth Breakthrough
However, software, computing, weapons integration and mission systems upgrades won’t change the external configuration of the F-35. Certainly the F-35 is quite stealthy and proven effective against 4th-generation fighters and advanced air defenses in wargames such as the Air Force’s Red Flag, yet available renderings of 6th-generation aircraft suggest an even “stealthier” high-speed fighter can be built. Is it possible to engineer an entirely flat, smooth, flying-wing type fighter jet without tails, fins or protruding structures? Could a horizontal aircraft such as this optimize stealth yet remain maneuverable and able to vector like a fighter jet? If available renderings of 6th-generation aircraft are any guide, the answer may be yes.
Horizontal Stealth Fighter?
Clearly the absence of protruding, angled, vertical structures, from a pure aerodynamic perspective, offers less contours off of which electromagnetic radar “pings” can bounce off to generate a return rendering. Much like a fully horizontal, smooth high altitude B-2, early models of 6th-gen aircraft suggest that NGAD could somehow achieve the seemingly impossible task of simultaneously achieving both optimal stealth and optimal speed and air maneuverability. This would offer strong evidence to suggest that the Pentagon must build NGAD to ensure new generations of air attack capability are brought into the force. Historically, one is inclined to believe that a fighter jet can only vector or maneuver by adjusting air flow with wings, tails and vertical structures. However, are there new breakthrough technologies enabling a fully-horizontal stealth fighter jet to maneuver, vector and dogfight better than an F-22? It would seem possible, should available 6th-gen imagery provide an indication.
Not Enough F-22s?
The Congressional report also cited some of the factors limiting the potential impact of US F-22s in a Pacific engagement with China. As a land-launched aircraft existing in small numbers, the F-22 could be challenged to leverage its air-dominance in a major confrontation with China.
“In a fight against China, where islands off its coast are separated by hundreds of miles, the F-22 may be constrained by its 460-nautical mile range and 2,000-pound payload capacity. For greater range, the F-22 relies on U.S. aerial refueling tankers such as the KC-46 and KC-135, which may be vulnerable to attack. For at least a decade, the Air Force has studied F-22 replacements that could confront such a threat,” the CRS report states.
Hamlet Makes Decision
What all of this suggests is that the Pentagon’s apparent decision to surge ahead with the most technologically advanced 6th-generation possible appears to be gaining traction and taking shape. This is the correct decision.
Just as Shakespeare’s Hamlet eventually broke through paralyzing grief and indecision to honor his father’s memory and avenge his death… the Air Force appears to be moving beyond its continued wavering and taking decisive, necessary action to protect US Air supremacy and build NGAD.
This effort to significantly strengthen the US military through weapons modernization, innovation, sheer size, and equipment expansion is not incompatible with current DOGE efforts to significantly streamline Pentagon spending for increased efficiency. For decades, US political and military leaders have operated within a clear consensus that waste and unnecessary expenditures need to be removed from the DoD budget; there are likely many ways to adjust spending to increase efficiency and eliminate spending that is not required, all while simultaneously building up and significantly strengthening US military lethality, technological sophistication, size and power.
Kris Osborn is the Military Technology Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
