By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The Pentagon is moving 5th-generation stealth airpower Eastward in what appears to be an effort to send a “deterrence” message to Russia regarding the Baltics and Eastern Europe increasingly believed to be at risk of Russian attack. Four US F-35s have replaced existing 4th-generation aircraft and ushered in a new phase of 5th-generation stealth deterrence along the Eastern European border with Russia. The arriving F-35 Lightning IIs have begun operations at Lask Air Base, Poland, a service statement explained.
“The aircraft replaced four F-16 Fighting Falcons from the 52nd Fighter Wing, based at Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, to continue integration with NATO Allies,” a statement from US Air Forces in Europe said. “This capability is critical for a timely and coordinated response, if and when called upon.” Operating from forward locations allows U.S. Air Force Airmen to live, train, and operate alongside European counterparts while enabling NATO’s collective defense capabilities.”
Looking at NATO’s defensive posture, and the growing multinational force of F-35s, the arrival of additional F-35s seems to make strategic sense, particularly in light of increasing Russian threats related to its Ukraine campaign, nuclear threats and inflammatory anti-NATO rhetoric.
The number of countries now acquiring, developing and deploying F-35s has doubled in recent years, and NATO’s ability to field a collective, networked, multinational force of 5th-generation aircraft cannot be underestimated. The reason for this seems as clear as it is self-evident, because NATO air supremacy does appear to be a distinct and recognizable NATO advantage in the event of a conflict with Russia. Certainly Russia is known for a large armored ground force, as GlobalFirepower.com lists the Russian military as operating 14, 777 tanks. However, placing the question of air supremacy aside, Russia’s ground force would not seem to be well positioned for any ground attack on a NATO country. Russia’s tanks have been decimated by Ukrainian defenders and many of its vehicles have likely not been modernized.
However, apart from of any land comparison, it does appear NATO and the West operate with a large and decisive air power advantage. Aside from capability, the US and Europe would appear to have a massive 5th-generation numbers advantage. Russia’s Ministry of Defense currently lists that its military operates 22 Su-57s with at least 76 more on order, according to an interesting essay from Bulgarianmilitary.com. Looking at simple math, NATO operates close to six-times the number of 5th-generation aircraft.
“Today, there are approximately 120 F-35s in Europe across six countries. By the 2030, we expect more than 500 F-35s will integrate from more than 10 European countries, including two full U.S. F-35 squadrons at RAF Lakenheath in the UK,” a Lockheed Martin essay on the F-35 states.
While military superiority is increasingly calculated, determined and understood in terms of computing, information exchange, weapons range and sensing, “mass still matters,” to reference the famous Sun Tzu. This is particularly true in light of the other key variables such as sensing, data exchange and targeting.
In any conflict scenario, a Russian ground incursion Westward would have little to no hope of success without air superiority or at least an ability to challenge NATO in the air. NATO, Europe and the US could in effect deploy an extended “envelope” of F-35s across its Eastern European border, essentially placing an air-attack force well within position to completely destroy any Russian ground attack from the air. Russian air defenses could be targeted by drones, stealth bombers and long-range air and ground fires. F-35s themselves have an operational ability to operate against air defenses, and Russian S-400s and S-500s may not reach into Eastern European areas they may wish to attack. In effect, Russia’s small number of Su-57s would be quite challenged to form any kind of a threat to NATO F-35s. Assuming the Su-57 is capable of rivaling Western F-35s, a possibility which seems entirely unverified, there are simply not enough of them to challenge large formation of F-35s defending Europe,
There are other critical variables of relevance to this referring to the networking, computing and targeting technologies of the F-35. Not only does Russia appear to lack any allies capable of adding 5th-generation air power to its attack force, but NATO and European F-35s operate with what might be an unprecedented networking advantage. All F-35s, from every member-nation, are engineered with a common Multi-Function Advanced Data Link (MADL), a technology which connects all F-35s with a secure, high-speed datalink. This means F-35s from all member-nations could form a 5th-generation “wall” along an Eastern European front and be positioned to quickly exchange targeting, surveillance and attack information to other F-35 “air nodes” in position to attack.
Mission Data Files
The F-35 is famous for its often-discussed Mission Data Files, an advanced computer threat library which bounces new incoming sensor data off of an extensive, specific threat-data base. Should a sensor encounter a Chinese J-20 for example, or a Russian Su-57, the aircraft’s onboard computer will instantly be able to identify and “verify” the target for pilots in need of launching a rapid attack. The US Air Force consistently updates and upgrades the threat library, much of which is specific to geographical threat areas around different theaters of operation.
Kris Osborn is President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
