By Kris Osborn, Warrior
(Washington DC) “Increased rates of” B-21 production, were words used by Gen. Cotton, Commander of US Strategic Command when discussing the anticipated future of the emerging B-21 fleet.
Cotton’s comments, made at McAleese and Associates annual Defense Programs Conference, were part of his broader position that the US Air Force would be best served by acquiring 145 B-21 bombers, a number considerably higher than the current plan to acquire 100 of the aircraft.
“I, as a customer, want to see increased rates” of B-21 production, Cotton said as quoted in Air and Space Magazine, noting that the program’s low production rate was set “when the geopolitical environment was a little bit different than what we face today.”
In recent years, the expected fleet size for the B-21 has been capped at 100, yet many senior military leaders have been clear for years that the US potentially needs as many 200 B-21 bombers to meet the evolving threat circumstances.
US Air Force Bomber-Vector
There are many variables impacting this equation, some of which can be traced back to a published US Air Force bomber-vector years ago which explained how the service has been suffering with a longstanding bomber-deficit across the fleet. The B-2 fleet was cut at 20 airplanes years ago, a decision many Pentagon leaders came to later regret, and both the B-1b and B-52 bombers have been nearing obsolescence for many years now. The overall concept, as articulated by the Air Force, is that the services’ bomber-fleet configuration has for years been insufficient to meet combatant commander requests.
For quite some time, the Air Force has been concerned about its bomber fleet and sought to achieve a new balance through upgrades and successful modernization. The B-21 has been a key part of this equation for quite some time, because the production pace, timing and ultimate arrival of B-21s is being balanced against the extended service life of legacy bombers. This is likely why Gen. Cotton referenced “production” rates as a faster arrival of B-21s could certainly address or help close the service’s bomber deficit.
Specifically, the Air Force has expended significant effort and budget resources upgrading the B-1B bomber and B-52 for as long as possible until necessary numbers of the B-21 arrive. This is part of a broad effort to mitigate the service’s bomber deficit. While both the B-1b and B-52 have received major successful upgrades which have extended their combat relevance, the aircraft are decades old and approaching obsolescence. However, retirement of the B-52 and B-1b have been delayed significantly, in part to address this concern. The B-1b has not only received a new bomb rack unit but also had its internal weapons bay configured to carry hypersonics. The B-52J of course includes a new engine and a wide-ranging host of technological upgrades such as a new communications system, internal weapons bay modification and vastly expanded arsenal.
Yet another likely reason why Cotton and other Air Force and Pentagon leaders see a need for more B-21s likely pertains to the concepts of operation associated with the bomber. The B-21 will of course not only hold adversaries at risk of air attack but also function as a sensor, networking hub and command and control node in the sky controlling unmanned systems. This will enable the aircraft to function with an ISR component transmitting intelligence and time-sensitive target information across domains in a combat theater.
Nuclear Triad
The other key variable likely being considered by Cotton relates to the nuclear triad, as the Pentagon will need sufficient numbers of modern, nuclear-capable aircraft to sustain the air-leg portion of the nuclear triad. An expanded force of nuclear-armed B-21s could hold an adversary at risk across a wider operational envelope and sustain a forward air dimension to the Pentagon’s strategic deterrence posture. For example, the B-21 will, among other things, carry the emerging Long Range StandOff weapon, a nuclear-capable, air-launched cruise missile intended to replace the existing ALCM (Air Launched Cruise Missile). Not surprisingly, Cotton is also requesting a large increase in the amount of LRSOs that are brought into the force.
It makes strategic sense that the Air Force would again be contemplating a massive increase in its planned fleet of B-21 stealth bombers, given the overall state of its bomber force and the need to deploy a large-enough fleet to counter a great-power adversary in a large-scale confrontation.
100-to-250 B-21s
The current Air Force plan has been to build 100 B-21s, yet there is now discussion of potentially more than doubling the fleet size to 250 or more. The reasons for this are multi-faceted as they pertain to the diminishing size and condition of the Air Force bomber fleet and the seriousness of fast evolving threats. China is fast-tracking its H-20 B-21 look alike and Russia is developing its PAK 50 stealth bomber; the H-20 is reportedly capable of flying extremely long-range missions, according to multiple published Pentagon reports.
The operational scope of B-21s appears quite significant in light of changing threats, as it will bring an entirely new sphere of technological attack capacity. For instance, B-21s will operate with an ability to control drones, sense threat areas, process sensor data from otherwise disparate pools or sources of information and transmit as needed across a multi-domain force. The B-21 will also be capable of flying unmanned missions and operating as a stealth “attack’ platform as well as a multi-mode sensor “node” or aerial communication hub across a joint, multi-domain force.
B-21 as “Sensor”
In December of 2023, when the B-21 was formally unveiled, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff cited the vastly increased mission capabilities the B-21 will bring, as it not only introduces a new generation of stealth technology but also operate as a flying “sensor” or “command and control” node across a multi-domain combat theater.
The arrival of B-21s is considered both critical and very necessary in light of well-documented improvements within enemy air defense systems. Russia’s TASS news agency, for example, has claimed that improvements to its S-400 and S-500 surface-to-air-missiles are capable of detecting and destroying “stealth” aircraft. While this has not been verified, and establishing a radar “lock” or target track on a stealth aircraft is extremely difficult to do, the Pentagon and Air Force weapons developers are acutely aware that the threat circumstances are changing.
Years ago, a senior US Air Force official told Warrior that stealth was merely “one arrow in the quiver” when it comes to leveraging critical technologies for bombers and fighters in a modern threat environment.
B-2 upgrades
Although the service’s B-2 has been successfully upgraded with somewhat unanticipated levels of success, and the B-52 is essentially an entirely new aircraft compared to its inception decades ago, there is a widespread realization that the Air Force is in need of new stealth, sensing and high-altitude bombing technologies.
B-2s, for instance, are now equipped with a new sensor called the Defensive Management System, an advanced technology designed to identify enemy air defenses to enable the aircraft to elude them. The B-2 Spirit has also received a 1,000-fold faster computer processor and additional weapons, computing and fire-control upgrades.
Bomber deficit
However, despite these B-2 enhancements, there is likely still a concerning threat equation and, of even greater significance, there is only a fleet of 20 B-2s. B-2s and B1-B Lancers have been upgraded for long-term sustainment, yet they will start retiring. The service has for years been struggling to address the size, composition and readiness challenges it has been confronted with in recent decades. Existing bombers are not only approaching obsolescence but may need to retire as impactful numbers of B-21s arrive.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
