Chinese Carrier Shandong & Warship Strike Group Sail Through Taiwan Strait

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

As the Ukrainian counteroffensive and Israeli war against Hamas capture global attention, does the People’s Republic of China potentially see an opportunity to launch a rapid, sudden surprise attack on Taiwan? A distracted global community with US carriers in the Mediterranean and US Navy warships shooting down Houthi missile in the Red Sea might lead the PRC to calculate that it now has an optimal window in which to attempt a “fait accompli,” a concern regularly articulated in Pentagon reports that China may seek to quickly overwhelm and annex Taiwan faster than any defensive force can respond.

Concerns of this kind are likely to heighten quickly when PLA Navy amphibious attack war drills and aircraft carriers happen in the Taiwan strait. Now, China is once again sailing an aircraft carrier through the Taiwan strait, according to Taiwan’s Central News Agency. (CNA). The Taiwanese CNA essay says China’s second aircraft carrier called the Shandong once again transited through the Strait of Taiwan in the last few days, a development which could be characterized as both “not unusual” and simultaneously “highly threatening” given the current global environment.

The idea with a “fait accompli” would be to simply occupy Taiwan so quickly that any counterattack option would confront the reality of having to “extract” an occupying Chinese force from the island. The PRC may calculate that such an effort would simply present too high a price in casualties for the US and its allies to attempt, leaving Taiwan and its allies to simply “accept” a Chinese annexation of Taiwan.

Avoiding this kind of scenario is a key reason why the US Navy is so focused on “forward presence” in the Pacific, as an ability to respond immediately with sea-launched 5th-generation airpower, submarines, armed warships and even amphibious forces could, quite simply put, save the future of Taiwan.

The People’s Liberation Army – Navy has previously sailed carriers through the Taiwan strait, yet the CNA essay cites the Taiwanese military as saying this most recent pass was the first in more than a month.

“The People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Shandong Carrier Strike Group conducted the southbound transit through the Taiwan Strait on the west side, or the Chinese side, of the median line, on Monday afternoon, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) said in a statement,” the CNA essay states.