By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
As the Ukrainian counteroffensive and Israeli war against Hamas capture global attention, does the People’s Republic of China potentially see an opportunity to launch a rapid, sudden surprise attack on Taiwan? A distracted global community with US carriers in the Mediterranean and US Navy warships shooting down Houthi missile in the Red Sea might lead the PRC to calculate that it now has an optimal window in which to attempt a “fait accompli,” a concern regularly articulated in Pentagon reports that China may seek to quickly overwhelm and annex Taiwan faster than any defensive force can respond.
Concerns of this kind are likely to heighten quickly when PLA Navy amphibious attack war drills and aircraft carriers happen in the Taiwan strait. Now, China is once again sailing an aircraft carrier through the Taiwan strait, according to Taiwan’s Central News Agency. (CNA). The Taiwanese CNA essay says China’s second aircraft carrier called the Shandong once again transited through the Strait of Taiwan in the last few days, a development which could be characterized as both “not unusual” and simultaneously “highly threatening” given the current global environment.
The idea with a “fait accompli” would be to simply occupy Taiwan so quickly that any counterattack option would confront the reality of having to “extract” an occupying Chinese force from the island. The PRC may calculate that such an effort would simply present too high a price in casualties for the US and its allies to attempt, leaving Taiwan and its allies to simply “accept” a Chinese annexation of Taiwan.
Avoiding this kind of scenario is a key reason why the US Navy is so focused on “forward presence” in the Pacific, as an ability to respond immediately with sea-launched 5th-generation airpower, submarines, armed warships and even amphibious forces could, quite simply put, save the future of Taiwan.
The People’s Liberation Army – Navy has previously sailed carriers through the Taiwan strait, yet the CNA essay cites the Taiwanese military as saying this most recent pass was the first in more than a month.
“The People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Shandong Carrier Strike Group conducted the southbound transit through the Taiwan Strait on the west side, or the Chinese side, of the median line, on Monday afternoon, the Ministry of National Defense (MND) said in a statement,” the CNA essay states.
Warrior Video Appearance .. Could the US Navy Stop China From Invading Taiwan?
What are the implications of the PLA’s sending a carrier through the Taiwan strait? There are many, certainly the clearest and most self-evident of which is a simple effort to intimidate Taiwan or send a “power” message of some kind. Perhaps the Shandong is transiting the strait to “remind” Taiwan of the PLA-Navy’s military ability to annex the island. However, while destroyers and cruisers in a Carrier Strike Group do present cruise missile threats to Taiwan, a carrier without 5th-generation air attack capability is less daunting than the prospect of an amphibious attack. The PLA -Navy has a few prototypes of an emerging J-31 carrier-launched stealth fighter but does not as of yet have an operational ability to project 5th-generation air power from the sea. While J-16s and other PLA 4th-gen aircraft are still a concern, they pose a different threat which is arguably much more vulnerable to Taiwan’s established air defenses. Therefore, without an ability to come ashore with armored vehicles and helicopters, and without 5th-generation air power, a PLA Navy carrier is actually less threatening to Taiwan than a group of Type-075 amphibious assault ships operating with an ability to land-on and attack the island. This is likely why the PLA routinely conducts amphibious warfare training and readiness drills in and near the Taiwan strait as well. Any PLA attack or amphibious assault is likely to be quite challenged without any ability to fight for or establish air superiority, and the presence of a carrier might not change the equation regarding 5th-generation air attack anyway because Taiwan is only 100 miles from mainland China and well within reach of the PLA Air Force’s land-launched J-20
Surprise Chinese attack
There is a common and very significant concern associated with both carrier transits and amphibious warfare drills in the Taiwan strait, and that is the possibility of a surprise attack. Should carrier transits, fighter jet flights near Taiwan and amphibious warfare preparation drills in the Taiwan strait become somewhat “routinely” seen and regarded as training and demonstrations .. it puts the PLA in close proximity to launch an unexpected surprise attack emerging from beneath the guise of mere training exercises. Would Taiwan and its allies be prepared and forward positioned to respond in this kind of contingency? These variables are likely why the US Navy has such a consistent and regular presence in the Pacific near Taiwan and the South China Sea, as an ability to save Taiwan would likely depend upon speed of response and geographical proximity. Therefore, it would be sound strategic thinking should the US, Taiwan and their Pacific allies recognize the importance of being “in position” to respond when these kinds of carrier transits and amphibious war preparation demonstrations take place within the Taiwan Strait.
Kris Osborn is President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
