By Kris Osborn, President, Warrior
(Washington DC) China’s famous Chengdu J-20 “Mighty Dragon” stealth fighter is often written about by Chinese government-backed newspapers as a paradigm-changing, stealthy 5th-generation platform with a new domestically-built WS-15 engine and ability to rival or outperform US 5th-generation aircraft.
Yet despite much public writing about its apparent attributes, the J-20 remains largely mysterious and has been curiously absent from public view to a certain extent. However, despite being absent from many detected patrols or circumstances where it could be observed by Western satellites and drones, the J-20 is being mass produced at a very fast pace, something which changes the fleet size, structure and composition of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force. This also impacts the threat equation, given that many public news reports estimate that China now operates roughly 200 J-20s and is surging forward at a fast pace to build more. In May 2024, the PLA Air Force was reported as being equipped with 12 air brigades.
J-20 Mass Attack
China’s production capacity is certainly well known and a source of consistent concern at the Pentagon. Although the J-20 is land-launched and not capable of operating at sea, Taiwan is only 100 miles from the Chinese coastline, so the PLA AF could easily mount a land-launched 5th-generation J-20 mass attack on Taiwan and easily operate within its required combat radius. An inability to operate at sea, however, will greatly limit the PLA AFs ability to achieve air superiority across wider areas of the Pacific, one possible reason why the PLA seems to be heavily emphasizing development of China’s J-35 carrier-launched 5th-gen strike fighter.
It is possible that the PLA simply wants to limit the West’s ability to “see” the J-20 and gather information, because although Chinese violations of Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone tripled between 2021 and 2023, the J-20 was rarely seen and largely absent from these flight patrols. Interesting research published in the Journal of Strategic Studies in June 2023 cites research detailing the uptick in ADIZ violations jumped from 971 in 2021 to 3,119 in 2022. (published by the Routledge Taylor and Francis Group in the Journal of Strategic Studies in June 2023.) The research details the number of PLA AF aircraft involved in the violations and specifies which PLA AF aircraft were used. There is little or no account of the J-20 participating in these Chinese ADIZ violation flights, the research found.
US Air Force Gen Comments on J-20
There are publicly available specs and many news articles about the J-20, yet there has been notably little discussion of its maneuverability and flight characteristics having actually been observed.
At one point in 2022, the well-known Chinese government-backed Global Times newspaper described an incident wherein the J-20 and F-35 flew in close proximity to one another as part of routine People’s Liberation Army exercises in the region.
The Chinese-government-backed paper article in 2022 quotes comments from Air Force Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, former Commander of US Pacific Air Forces, saying the US pilots were “impressed” with the J-20. The US general’s quote reportedly came from an online event broadcast on youtube, the paper says.
“We got relatively close to the J-20s along with our F-35s in the East China Sea, and we’re relatively impressed with the command and control that was associated with the J-20,” Wilsbach reportedly said, according to the Chinese paper.
J-20 as Bomb Truck
Wilsbach also reportedly said the Chinese pilots were “flying the J-20s pretty well,” according to the paper. It’s not clear what Wilsbach intended here, yet he was likely closely following the growing number of PLA J-20s and the reported minimal extent to which they had been observed. His comments indicate that indeed the Pentagon has been taking the Chinese J-20 seriously.
The J-20 is known as a dual-wing, stealthy 5th-generation fighter aircraft capable of hitting speeds of Mach 2.0, a speed faster than the Mach 1.6 F-35 but not as fast as the Mach 2.25 F-22. Although said to be a 5th-gen stealth fighter capable of matching or challenging the F-35 and F-22. The J-20 does have a less stealthy heavily armed “bomb truck” mode as well, given that it can take off with 27,988 pounds of internal and external ordnance. This is much larger than a fully loaded F-35 which can carry 18,000 pounds of weapons, so it appears the PLA may be willing to compromise a measure of stealth in favor of larger weapons payloads.
Apart from these considerations, the question of whether a J-20 can rival an F-35 or F-22 likely pertains to attributes less visible to the eye such as sensing, computing and targeting technologies. For instance, if a Chinese J-20 does not have targeting sensors or computing that was in any way comparable to the F-35, other attributes would not even matter much. In short, whichever aircraft is best able to complete the OODA Loop (Observation, Orientation, Decision, Action) and operate within or ahead of an enemy’s decision cycle is likely to prevail by destroying the enemy faster than it can itself be hit. Completing this process requires expedited sensing, computer processing, data analysis and integration, all F-35 attributes which may or may not be rivaled by a Chinese J-20.
J-20 vs F-22
With less speed than an air-dominance F-22 and a weaker thrust-to-weight ratio, the larger and arguably less stealthy J-20 is not likely to truly rival an F-22, according to many top observers. In an essay several years ago, Justin Bronk with the London-based Royal United Service Institute, makes the point that J-20s would be outmatched in the air by U.S. F-22s deployed to challenge them.
Bronk writes that the J-20 “is a heavier, less agile aircraft that will be more expensive to build and operate. It also cannot compete with the extreme performance or agility of the F-22.”
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
