China, Russia & Iran: Does Pentagon Face “Three-Front-War” Threat?
Threats presented by China, Russia, Iran and various non-state terrorist groups now present the Pentagon with a Three-Pronged Threat
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By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
Threats presented by China, Russia, Iran and various non-state terrorist groups now present the Pentagon with a potentially unprecedented mixture and scale of potential challenges, several of which could collide with or intersect with one another at any given point in time.
Could the US and its allies counter terrorism in the Middle East, contain China and defend Taiwan in the Pacific all while maintaining a strong Ukraine-supporting NATO deterrence posture against Russia? One thing is clear, and that is that the Pentagon does not want to find out. The global security community could well be balancing precariously upon a fragile inflection point, resulting in a simultaneous eruption of violence in the Pacific, Middle East and Eastern Europe.
The pressing and somewhat self-evident question here is quite simply .. can the Pentagon handle this? How are they handling this? Is it possible to maintain sufficient readiness across what might be described as “three” war fronts? There has been much speculation and analysis regarding the Pentagon’s ability to manage a two-front, multi-theater conflict …. But what about a three-pronged conflict?
This possibility likely received more attention following the Pentagon’s announcement Nov 21 that a US military AC-130J Ghostrider attacked an Iran-backed militant group after the group used a ballistic missile to attack U.S. and coalition forces on Al-Asad Airbase, Iraq.
Could the US defend Taiwan from a surprise Chinese amphibious attack, intervene in Eastern Europe to counter a Russian move into NATO areas and stop an Iranian attack on Israel or intensified terrorist actions in the Middle East? The Pentagon does appear to be taking steps to make sure it does not have to find out, as senior DoD leaders say the responsive force-positioning deterrence posture in the Middle East has proven effective. Dual carriers have been in the Mediterranean, destroyers have been intercepting Houthi-missiles in the Red Sea, US force presence has been massively increased throughout the Middle East and the Pentagon has not hesitated to take measured, precision counter strike actions against Iran-backed proxy terrorist groups in Syria and Iraq.
Dr. Mara Karlin, currently performing duties as the Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, told reporters the US response in the Middle East does appear to be having the desired effect …. That is preventing massive escalation of the Israel-Hamas war.
“Right now, it is very clear I think that the surge of assets, putting troops on prepared to deploy order status, for example, all of that has been important for one of our key priorities, which is to contain this conflict and to signal that anyone who thinks it would be a good idea to escalate should realize that’s actually a quite terrible idea,” Karlin told reporters at the Pentagon, according to a DoD transcript.