Iran vs. Israel: Who Wins an all Out War?

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

Iran’s call for the destruction of Israel is an extremely public and well known reality, a loudly professed position which raises a number of questions regarding Iranian and Israeli military capabilities, their respective weapons arsenals and level of tactical proficiency. Just what might happen in a war between Israel and Iran? There are always so many unknowns in war, and assessments and wargames may often miss the mark regarding the tactical combat circumstances which ultimately transpire …. Yet there is much relevant detail related to these questions which can be learned or at least evaluated.

Many public Iranian documents, philosophies and remarks from senior civilian and military leaders incite the possibility of violence as a means to achieve this stated goal of Israel’s demise. As far back as several years ago, the leader of the Iranian Republican Guard Corps, Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami, claimed “Israel could be blown up in a single operation.”

What might sound like reasonably typical inflammatory anti-Israel rhetoric coming from Iran, could actually reflect Iran’s interpretation of how an Israel-Iran conflict might unfold. Assuming Gen. Salami’s comments were not related to the use of nuclear power or related to Iran actually possessing a nuclear weapon, they raise the question of force size, tactical proficiency and weaponry related to a potential Iran vs. Israel conflict.

Israel vs. Iran in the air

An initial question is simply one of geography, meaning the prospect of each country having success attacking the other. While Iran is known to fly some older fast and highly capable F-14 Tomcats, it is not clear how well maintained they are and Iran is quite likely extremely vulnerable to Israeli fighter jets in the air. Tomcats are fast, but likely to lose quickly in any air confrontation with 5th-generation aircraft simply due to sensor and weapons ranges. Israel, for instance, operates a fleet of 5th-generation stealth aircraft to include its F-35i Adir variant, likely capable of achieving air superiority and eluding Iranian air defenses. Iran is known to operate some Russian-built air defenses, yet it is by no means clear they would be able to detect and destroy Israeli F-35is.

In terms of sheer numbers of fighter jets, Israel has a relevant advantage of more than 50 aircraft, as Globalfirepower.com 2023 rankings reports that Iran operates 160 aircraft compared with Israel’s 241. However, the critical question here likely pertains to an issue of technological superiority, given that a single 5th-generation F-35 has shown in multiple wargames that it is capable of using long-range, high-fidelity targeting sensors and advanced weapons to destroy a much larger number of 4th-generation aircraft. Any quick analysis of available assets and technologies would suggest that Israel is likely to operate with a distinct advantage over Iran in the air, something which would make it very difficult for Iran to make any lasting progress with a ground invasion.

The question of Israeli air superiority also weighs heavily upon the feasibility of Iran being capable of launching any kind of ground invasion into Israel. In order to access Israel, Iranian ground forces would need to travel through Turkey or Iraq or somehow transit the Persian Gulf, all scenarios wherein approaching Iranian forces would easily be seen and be vulnerable to Israeli air attack. Therefore, apart from the concerning prospect of Iran at some point having nuclear weapons, there do not appear to be a wide sphere of ways Iran might actually be able to attack Israel with any measure of success.