By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The realities of war have for generations contradicted or even fully overturned predictions, yet early assessments of force structure, strategy and weaponry can yield tremendous insights prior to the escalation of a larger-scale conflict.
This question pertains completely and totally to what many expect to be an upcoming Israeli response to the recent large-scale Iranian attack. Will it be a massive air attack campaign? Would such a series of attacks function as a precursor to a large-scale ground incursion? That seems unlikely, yet one might expect that all options are on the table. Moving a large land force to stage and prepare to invade Iran would involve a complex and potentially sensitive task of moving forces through some combination of Jordan, Syria, Turkey and Iraq … something likely to be quite difficult to negotiate in the current geopolitical environment.
Long range precision air-and ground strikes and 5th-generation stealth air attack are most likely to be an initial IDF attack action. The IDF is undoubtedly armed with precision-guided land-fired ballistic missiles likely to penetrate or overwhelm Iranian defenses. The Iranian military is unlikely to have an ability to stop or intercept incoming missiles in any way similar to how that was accomplished by the IDF. Jerusalem to Tehran is 1,845 Km a range reachable by some ballistic missiles and land-launched fighter jets with aerial refueling. However the range of an F-35A, according to specs, is stated to be 1,379 miles, placing the aircraft within range of hitting Iran from Israel. However, some regional refueling will likely be necessary for dwell time and return flight given the distance between Israel and Iran.
Navy a factor?
Neither Iran or Israel have much of a Naval presence, and Israel does not have an aircraft carrier. However, the IDF does operate warships and submarines capable of attacking from the Persian Gulf. Iran is also known for its ability to launch small boat attacks and is reported by GlobalFirepower to operate as many as 19 submarines, compared with Israel’s 5. Therefore, depending upon what kinds of cruise missiles or land attack weapons Iranian submarines are capable of firing, it is conceivable that Iran could hold critical parts of Israel at risk from waters in the Eastern Mediterranean.
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The IDF does have a numerical advantage in the air, as GlobalFirepower.com reports that the IDF operates 241 fighter aircraft compared to Iran’s 186. While this is a numerical difference, the largest disparity between the two countries in the air is likely the existence of 5th-generation aircraft. Iran does not appear to operate a 5th-generation aircraft, a circumstance which places the Iranian Air Forces as a substantial deficit. Air Supremacy is almost certain to be quickly established by Israel, should its F-35i Adir be able to operate above Iran.
Attacking Iran with the F-35
Finding areas to launch 5th-generation aircraft against Iran in a sustained and impactful fashion could be difficult for the IDF, depending upon the willingness of countries in the region to allow Israeli fighters to land for re-arming and refueling. There do seem to be a few possibilities, however, along the area of the Persian Gulf. While the US is unlikely to use aircraft carriers from the Persian Gulf and actually support an IDF attack, the IDF does operate at least 15 warships and some submarines, platforms likely capable of launching cruise missile attacks against Iran from the Persian Gulf. In addition, its seems within the realm of the possible that the IDF could be permitted to operate fighter jets and its F-35I Adir from Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates or even Doha could be possible given the US relationship with these areas. Regardless, staging or operating any kind of IDF force from Muslim territories is likely to be extremely sensitive for obvious reasons. For this reason, it seems Israel might be well served to launch some attacks from the Persian Gulf and somehow seek to find an area from which to launch, operate and refuel its fighter jets.
Securing operating space for IDF fighter jets would seem critical to any Israeli air attack upon Iran, as an ability to do so would likely give Israel an opportunity to quickly establish air superiority over Iranian skies.
IDF Air Superiority
An initial question is simply one of geography, meaning the prospect of each country having success attacking the other. While Iran is known to fly some older fast and highly capable F-14 Tomcats, it is not clear how well maintained they are and Iran is quite likely extremely vulnerable to Israeli fighter jets in the air. Tomcats are fast, but likely to lose quickly in any air confrontation with 5th-generation aircraft simply due to sensor and weapons ranges. Israel, for instance, operates a fleet of at least 35 5th-generation stealth aircraft to include its F-35i Adir variant, likely capable of achieving air superiority and eluding Iranian air defenses. Iran is known to operate some Russian-built air defenses, yet it is by no means clear they would be able to detect and destroy Israeli F-35is.
However, the most critical question regarding IDF-Iranian air power likely pertains to an issue of technological superiority, given that a single 5th-generation F-35 has shown in multiple wargames that it is capable of using long-range, high-fidelity targeting sensors and advanced weapons to destroy a much larger number of 4th-generation aircraft. Any quick analysis of available assets and technologies would suggest that Israel is likely to operate with a distinct advantage over Iran in the air, something which would make it very difficult for Iran to make any lasting progress with a ground invasion.
The question of Israeli air superiority also weighs heavily upon the feasibility of Iran being capable of launching any kind of ground invasion into Israel. In order to access Israel, Iranian ground forces would need to travel through Turkey or Iraq or somehow transit the Persian Gulf, all scenarios wherein approaching Iranian forces would easily be seen and be vulnerable to Israeli air attack. Therefore, apart from the concerning prospect of Iran at some point having nuclear weapons, there do not appear to be a wide sphere of ways Iran might actually be able to attack Israel with any measure of success.
Unless, of course, Iran were to employ terrorist tactics, something by no means beyond the realm of possibility. In fact, small, covert hit and run types of terror attacks may be the kind of thing Hossein was referring to by hinting that several targeted strikes could bring down Israel. Added to this equation is the well known fact that Iran has been, and likely continues to be, a state sponsor of terrorist organizations. However, just as is likely the case with air defenses, Israel is certainly experienced and likely adept at counterterrorism tactics for obvious reasons.
Iranian Ground Army
While Iran does, at least on paper, appear to have a larger ground force, particularly when it comes to tanks and armored vehicles, that does not in any way mean that its land force would in any way be equivalent to Israel. Globalfirepower’s 2023 military assessments for instance, list Iran as having 4,071 tanks compared to Israel’s 2,200 tanks. However, having 2,000 more tanks than Israeli does not by any stretch ensure military overmatch, as sheer numbers of tanks may prove to be much less of an advantage should a smaller tank force be equipped with vastly superior sensors, weapons, computing and targeting. This may well appear to be the case with e
ven a cursory look at how Israel’s well known and highly regarded Merkava tanks would compare against Iranian upgraded Soviet-era T-72s.
An interesting report in “21st Century Asian Arms Race,” states Iran has German-built Leopard tanks as well as Russian T-90s and even some Abrams. Iran’s first widely reported indigenous tank called the Farrar has emerged in recent years, a platform said to be based upon an upgraded Iranian T-72S chassis. The Iranian tank, reported to operate with an electro-optical fire control system, laser rangefinder and ballistic computer, would at least on the surface appear to most likely be vastly inferior to the Israeli Merkava. The Israeli Merkava is among the most advanced armored vehicles in the world. It can carry infantry or injured soldiers, leverage a rear exit hatch for dismounted operations or safety escape and, perhaps of greatest significance, its main gun tube can itself fire anti-tank missiles, according to a report in The National Interest.
The Merkava also has top-attack missiles potentially useful for attacking helicopters and other targets potentially out of range for a standard tank shell. What much of this amounts to is simply that even if it operates as many as 2,000 fewer main battle tanks compared to Iran, Israel may indeed operate a vastly superior land force. During the Gulf War’s famous tank battles, for example, U.S. Abrams advanced thermal sights were able to detect, find and then help destroy Iraqi T-72 before they were in range to even be detected or seen by Iraqi tanks. Therefore, large numbers of Iraqi tanks were disproportionately destroyed by far fewer Abrams armed with long-range, high-fidelity targeting sensors.
Iran operates nearly 400,000 more military personnel than Israel, as Iran’s total force of 1,015,000 is significantly larger than Israel’s reported force of 646,000. This difference, however, is not likely to be much of a factor if Iran cannot get in position to launch a ground invasion and operates a largely inferior ground Army in terms of weapons and technology.
Iranian Arsenal
Iran is reported to operate about 1,000 more armored vehicles than Israel. Iran is listed in the Globalfirepower 2021 assessment as having 8,500 armored vehicles, compared with Israel’s 7,000. Again, any size deficit is likely to be less consequential, unless the technological capacity were in any way comparable. While a lot of details regarding any kind of particular technical comparison may not be available, the advanced technologies built into the Israeli Merkava might make it seem unlikely that Iran has vastly superior infantry carriers and armored vehicles. Furthermore, without superior tanks able to break through the proactive barriers or defensive configurations of an Israeli force, any Iranian advance might be less likely to succeed.
Iran does, however, have much more artillery and Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) when compared to Israel, yet both traditional artillery and 70-to-80km-reaching MLRS would not be in position to strike Israel unless they were moved close to its borders through forward deployment. At the same time, Iran is reported to operate a large number of Short, Medium and Long-Range Ballistic missiles in position to hit Israel. An examination of Iran’s large ballistic missile arsenal with a mind to guidance and range raises a serious threat possibility to Israel, as Iran appears to now operate at least five different long-range ballistic missiles capable of hitting Israel from Iran. Maps of the Middle East show Iranian missiles are easily able to hit Jerusalem and other parts of Israel from locations throughout Iran, as Jerusalem is less than 2,000km from Tehran. This means some ballistic missiles launched from Iran’s capital can hit Israel and an even higher number of long-range weapons can easily hit Israel from other locations within Western Iran.
An interesting and quite significant research paper from Iran Watch shows that indeed Iran does possess a massive arsenal of ballistic missiles, at least five of which can reportedly travel distances of 1,300km or more. The famous Shahab-3, for instance, is listed by Iran Watch as capable of traveling 1,300km with a 1,000kg warhead. The liquid fuel, single stage Shahab-3 rocket is now deployed and exists in large numbers. The longest range ballistic missile listed by Iran Watch is the Khorramshahr 1,2, and 4 .. weapons cited as able to travel as far as 2,000 to 3,000km. This means the missile could hit anywhere in Israel from Tehran or most places throughout Central and Western Iran. Other Iranian Medium Range Ballistic Missiles capable of traveling 1,600km or more are the now-deployed Ghadr, Emad and Paveh missiles, according to Iran Watch. The Iranian Sejjil MRBM can travel 2,000km as well.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
