War Analysis: Israel vs Iran – IDF Advantage in the Air

By Kris Osborn, President, Warrior

The realities of war have for generations contradicted or even fully overturned predictions, yet early assessments of force structure, strategy and weaponry can yield tremendous insights prior to the escalation of a larger-scale conflict.

This question pertains completely and totally to what many expect to be an upcoming Israeli response to the recent large-scale Iranian attack. Will it be a massive air attack campaign? Would such a series of attacks function as a precursor to a large-scale ground incursion? That seems unlikely, yet one might expect that all options are on the table. Moving a large land force to stage and prepare to invade Iran would involve a complex and potentially sensitive task of moving forces through some combination of Jordan, Syria, Turkey and Iraq … something likely to be quite difficult to negotiate in the current geopolitical environment.

Long range precision air-and ground strikes and 5th-generation stealth air attack are most likely to be an initial IDF attack action. The IDF is undoubtedly armed with precision-guided land-fired ballistic missiles likely to penetrate or overwhelm Iranian defenses. The Iranian military is unlikely to have an ability to stop or intercept incoming missiles in any way similar to how that was accomplished by the IDF. Jerusalem to Tehran is 1,845 Km a range reachable by some ballistic missiles and land-launched fighter jets with aerial refueling. However the range of an F-35A, according to specs, is stated to be 1,379 miles, placing the aircraft within range of hitting Iran from Israel. However, some regional refueling will likely be necessary for dwell time and return flight given the distance between Israel and Iran.

Navy a factor?

Neither Iran or Israel have much of a Naval presence, and Israel does not have an aircraft carrier. However, the IDF does operate warships and submarines capable of attacking from the Persian Gulf. Iran is also known for its ability to launch small boat attacks and is reported by GlobalFirepower to operate as many as 19 submarines, compared with Israel’s 5. Therefore, depending upon what kinds of cruise missiles or land attack weapons Iranian submarines are capable of firing, it is conceivable that Iran could hold critical parts of Israel at risk from waters in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The IDF does have a numerical advantage in the air, as GlobalFirepower.com reports that the IDF operates 241 fighter aircraft compared to Iran’s 186. While this is a numerical difference, the largest disparity between the two countries in the air is likely the existence of 5th-generation aircraft. Iran does not appear to operate a 5th-generation aircraft, a circumstance which places the Iranian Air Forces as a substantial deficit. Air Supremacy is almost certain to be quickly established by Israel, should its F-35i Adir be able to operate above Iran. 

Attacking Iran with the F-35