Warrior Maven Thought: Which countries are impossible to conquer? Are you surprised Afghanistan is on the list?
Blake Stilwell,We Are The Mighty
Historically, all empires either fall or morph into some other empire... and then fall. We don't use the term "empire" to describe nation-states that much anymore.
Regardless of what we call some countries, they are still able to project power outside their borders, being it globally (like the United States) or regionally (like Iran).
But when it comes to having to defend their home turf, some countries are just not going to roll over for any reason.
These are those countries:
1. The United States of America
Cpl. Seth Hall, anti-tank missileman, 3rd Battalion, 6th Marine Regiment, mans the rails of USS Bataan in a parade of ships as part of Fleet Week in New York, May 25, 2016. The USS Bataan transported more than 500 Marines and sailors with the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit who will participate in this year’s Fleet Week. Sgt. Rebecca L. Floto/US Marine Corps
We all saw this one coming, so let's get it out of the way early and start with what I know many are thinking: any invader of the United States isn't facing just the U.S. military, they're facing all 330 million Americans. Yes, there are more weapons than people in the U.S. — and that's just considering the guns we know about. Americans are allowed to design and build their own weapons in many states, without ever having to register. This means every American with an arsenal can recruit and train their own band of Wolverines.
Even if an invader managed to take control of the civilian population — and that's a big if — they'd still have to get through the best-trained, best-equipped military in the world, recruited from the very violently pro-America people I was just telling you about.
Then, they have to hold on to that territory without getting killed and without the locals organizing against them. Many major cities are already organized. And armed. And ready to go killing again once the war dies down a bit.
Albuquerque, Houston, Oklahoma City, Detroit, Baltimore, New York City — whether the invasion moves from east to west or west to east, there are a lot of pressure points invaders need to secure before moving on. Which brings up another point: America is huge.
Our four time zones contain seven different climate regions, not to mention everything from high mountains to marshland, swamps to deserts, and in some places, a lot of flat nothing. Just going across the mighty Mississippi River without a bridge is enough to kill off a good chunk of an army while the residents of East St. Louis are using it as target practice.
When the invaders get out of the actual geographical features of the United States (where roving bands of armed American militias are waiting to ambush their enemies), the invader will enter some of the largest cities in the world, three of which are in the top 100 in terms of population, and many are full of the aforementioned gangs and violent extremists groups.
Ever look up at New York City buildings and just imagine what it would be like to have to invade, conquer, and keep a city so populous and so large in size and scale?
Russian servicemen march during the Victory Day parade at Red Square in Moscow, Russia, May 9, 2015 Reuters
This one goes well beyond the myth of "General Winter" (although that would definitely be a factor for most invading countries). Russia projects power regionally, but its armed forces (as I mentioned before in other articles) is not as great as Putin is hyping it up to be lately.
But if invaded, Russia doesn't have to project anything and its legendary toughness can really bloom, even in the middle of the freezing Russian winter. Invading Russia, as any student of history knows, is a terribly difficult thing. When Napoleon invaded in 1812, the Russian people took casualties, to be sure, but what really suffered was Russia's towns, cities, farms, and other infrastructure — all of it destroyed by Russians.
That's right, Russians would rather destroy their own country than leave it for any invader. And if you're thinking that was a long time ago, and modern Russians might have different sensibilities, remember they did that when the Nazis invaded in World War II, and at first many Russians welcomed the Germans. From there, the fighting only got more brutal. So any invader has to remember that they're likely fighting every single Russian - across 11 times zones.
Did you catch that? There are 11 time zones in Russia, the largest country by land mass. If that wasn't bad enough, Russia also contains every single climate type there is (yes, Russia has a rain forest. Look it up). If that wasn't enough, you will likely have to fight every ex-Soviet client state around Russia's borders, too. Many of them are still very loyal to Russia and would take up arms to fight for their Russian friends. This only extends the range and variety of people, climate, and geography to contend with. The deserts of Kazakhstan, the mountains and forests of the Caucasus region, and the frozen shores of the Black and Caspian Seas
The steppes and tundras of Central Asia are not a forgiving place. Just like the Americans who would take up arms against an invader, the Russian and pro-Russian people living in these areas will, too. These are hardy, gun-toting, skilled hunters who have no compulsion about killing an invader, having grown up with their parents' and grandparents' stories about fighting the Great Patriotic War against the Nazis, which included the deadliest fighting in the history of human warfare (which the Russians won) at Stalingrad.
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Two UH-60 Blackhawk helicopters assigned to Task Force Shadow fly over mountainous terrain in eastern Afghanistan en route to Kabul, Afghanistan June 23, 2018. DVIDS
Despite what every successive American general would have you believe for the past 17 years, victory in Afghanistan is not just around the corner.
Every invading empire who thought victory was just around the corner in Afghanistan really just helped contribute to Afghanistan's legacy as "The Graveyard of Empires." This includes, the current sole superpower in the world, the United States, the only other superpower to ever exist, the Soviet Union, and the largest empire ever assembled by any state in the world, the British Empire at its height.
What makes Afghanistan so difficult to capture and keep is first and foremost: the terrain. It's a giant bowl of desert, surrounded by some of the highest peaks in the world. Any army an invader can't destroy could just fade away into the mountains and lick their wounds until the next fighting season came. In modern times, the high peaks negate the advantage of armor and tanks, just as it negated the advantage of heavy cavalry in earlier times. The United States is a viable fighting force in Afghanistan because of its logistical advantage. Where the U.S. can get supplies and troops in and out relatively easily, the attacking British in 1839 had a much less reliable system. That's why only one man of 16,000 troops and camp followers returned.
That's why it's remembered as the "Disaster in Afghanistan."
The most important reason no one can conquer Afghanistan is because any invader has to completely subdue the population. The whole population. And these people are as diverse as it gets. Pashtun, Turkmen, Baloch, Palaw, Tajik, and Uzbek are jut a few of the ethnic groups in the country. Even after 17 years in the country, many Americans wouldn't pick up on the fact that one of those ethnic groups I just mentioned is actually a rice dish.
Put aside Taliban or Mujaheddin loyalty for a moment and imagine the life of a regular Afghan man. Their clan, their tribe, their unit, their sheikh, their ethnicity, their religion, maybe their provincial or central government? And when you do take into account their loyalties to extremist groups, you have to factor in the group, that unit, and the shadow government. That's 12 potential loyalties right there. Imagine trying to subdue 34 million of them, because you have to if you invade Afghanistan.
Defeating those people in pitched battles didn't work, ask the British. Massacring them also didn't work, ask the Soviets. The American nation building strategy isn't coming along either.
People's Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers shout as they practise with knives during a training session on snow-covered ground at a military base in Heihe, Heilongjiang province March 18, 2015. REUTERS/China Daily
Did your invading army plan on fighting one billion people? Because that is what is likely to happen invading China. The most populous country in the world now boasts 1.3 billion-plus people. For the uninitiated or bad at math (or both), that means they have almost the entire population of the United States plus a billion. Having written these wargaming posts for a few years now, I know that many will ask me to consider that this doesn't mean China has a skilled or fearsome force of ground troops and that all they've ever tactically perfected on a modern battlefield is human wave attacks.
While these one billion Chinese people likely don't have a their own arms, it wouldn't take long for the planned central bureaucracy to start handing out weapons to form a unified front against an invader. There's an old U.S. military saying: if it's stupid and it works, it isn't stupid. It may sound like a throwing a few million soldiers at an invader is stupid, but it's quite the human wave and it will likely work. So, even if the numbers of the Battle of the Chosin Reservoir are repeated, and it takes ten Chinese divisions to repel one Marine Division, the Marines will need to send 25 divisions just to establish a beachhead.
The fun doesn't stop just because the invader made it ashore. China is as massive as the United States, with a diverse climate and diverse geographical features. It's surrounded by extreme weather and oceans on all sides, so invaders will have to be prepared for the impassable Gobi Desert and the jungles of Southeast Asia, not to mention the mountainous, snowy Himalayan regions which will make air support difficult.
If invading troops aren't massacred along the way by bands of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, then they still get to contend with a variety of tropical diseases, along with the diseases that come from overpopulation and pollution.
This is just in fighting a conventional war. The Chinese are the masters of ripping off foreign technology, so an invading army would have to assume that the country they're invading will also have all the technological prowess of the United States - and with its 750-million-plus person manpower (assuming they didn't die in a human wave) and strong economy, they're ready to grind on for a long time.
Indian soldiers march during the Republic Day parade in New Delhi. Reuters
This is probably the only entry on the list many readers didn't predict. But on its own, India is a formidable place to invade.
To the north and east lay harsh Himalayan mountain passes. Dry deserts makes up roughly half of India's northwest regions. In the southwest, India is wet and tropical, limiting the best places to land an ocean-born invasion force.
That is, if you ever get to land an invasion force on the subcontinent. Part of India's major naval strategy is to flood her territorial waters with enough submarines to sink both enemy warships and enemy landing craft while strangling sea lanes of enemy shipping. This tactic has been in place for a long time, since before China's foreign policy went from one of "peaceful rise" to "crouching tiger."
Since the British left India in 1947, they've had to deal with Pakistan on a few occasions and even went to war with China once before. Ever since, China and Pakistan have only grown closer, so India's entire defense strategy has to be predicated on the idea of fighting a war on two fronts — and they're ready for it.
Fighting in India is not a small matter, as any Indian general will probably tell you. The height of the Himalayan mountains makes air support very difficult, even impossible at times. India can't rely exclusively on one benefactor, meaning it can't just choose to be closer to the USA or Russia. India cares about Pakistan and China and will accept any tech or gear that helps them win that war. As such, their near-limitless manpower, religious fervor, and billion-plus population would make them a formidable opponent on any front.