By Kris Osborn, Warrior
There are simply far too many unknowns about the emerging “black” B-21 Raider next-generation bomber program to make a determination regarding whether newly arriving technology makes the platform obsolete.
New Stealth Paradigm
There are many key reasons why the B-21 is very unlikely to be obsolete in any respect, simply given what little information is available about the platform. Not only does the B-21 purportedly contain an entirely new generation of stealth technologies, according to credible US Air Force senior leaders, but its mission scope far exceeds that of a traditional bomber.
Historically, stealth bombers have been thought of as ordnance delivering platforms capable of flying undetected above enemy territory to pinpoint high value targets such as air defenses, something designed to create a safer “air corridor” through which 4th and 5th-generation attack aircraft can travel to attacks. Of course platforms like the B-2 do operate with some advanced sensing and command and control, particularly in more recent years given the scope of upgrades to the platform. However, the emerging B-21 is known to include a new generation of computing, sensing and command and control technology, a reality enabling the platform to function as an unprecedented flying sensing “node” in the sky capable of gathering, analyzing and transmitting high volumes of time-sensitive information in combat. In essence, the platform is intended to operate as a flying “command and control” center as well as a bomb-attack aircraft.
B-21 as “sensor”
Senior Air Force and Pentagon leaders have been clear that the B-21 will not only be capable of unmanned missions but, perhaps of greater importance, it will control groups of drones from the air. This means that the Air Force will operate with a stealthy, flying command and control platform capable of gathering, organizing and disseminating highly critical information across multiple domains and platforms in a major combat operation. While there are command and control and sensing aircraft such as an E2-D Hawkeye or P-8 Poseidon sub hunting aircraft, there does not appear to be a comparable “manned,” “stealthy” airborne command and control capability apart from what F-35s, F-22s or drones might offer. Therefore, a stealthy B-21 with advanced computing, data analysis, sensing and networking technology would doubtless introduce a new generation of secure, more-survivable multi-domain combat connectivity than would currently exist in war.
While unmanned systems could potentially be engineered to operate with these kinds of technologies, there is no substitute for having a “manned” platform operate in a multi-domain command and control capacity. Perhaps a high-altitude, undetected B-21 could receive ballistic missile threat information from a US Navy warship’s Aegis radar and be in position to quickly analyze the threat data and transmit critical detail to ground or surface based defenses and interceptors? Perhaps forward operating drones could detect threats to an armored convoy moving to contact with an enemy and quickly relay data to an airborne manned command and control center capable of making quick decisions to intervene.
Need for “humans”
Mathematically determined computer algorithms would seem challenged to replicate the kinds of unique, yet more subjective faculties fundamental to human cognition, therefore a forward operating command and control stealthy “drone” would likely be ill equipped to perform combat decision making in a manner comparable to what human pilots can do. Essentially, human decision making is believed to offer an irreplaceable space in combat decision-making. This is why the most cutting edge Pentagon thinking suggests that the optimal approach or utilization of autonomy and AI in combat requires a combination of humans and machines. Human Machine Interface as its called, remains centerstage in the realm of Pentagon thinking about how best to leverage AI, autonomy and unmanned technology surging into the future. Humans need to perform critical command and control functions which even the most advanced AI-enabled drones might be ill suited to perform. This means a stealthy B-21 able to perform high-altitude command and control with “human” crews would seem to offer a unique and unparalleled advantage. It does not seem that anything similar to this exists, so the idea of a B-21 being obsolete seems unlikely if not entirely inaccurate.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University