China's mysterious H-20 bomber is missing. Developmental challenges or advanced stealth? Its eventual arrival poses a significant nuclear threat, potentially reshaping global security.
By Kris Osborn, Warrior
China’s new H-20 stealth bomber can be understood in terms of a clear paradox, as it is both as concerning as it is mysterious, unclear and simply .. not here yet. Why is the PLA AF taking so long to arrive? There are many potential explanations on either ends of the spectrum, because the delay could signal developmental and technological challenges, or conversely indicate that perhaps the platform is incorporating new generations of complex, highly-advanced stealth technology.
Regardless, the emerging, yet mysterious Chinese H-20 stealth bomber is very much on the Pentagon radar, as it is expected to arrive within a few years as a rival to the US B-21 and bring unprecedented ranges and nuclear-capable, high-altitude broadband stealth to the global threat equation.
Very little is known about the H-20, and there have been few publicly available renderings, and while the platform appears quite stealthy to the observer's eye, top Pentagon weapons experts are potentially concerned about the People’s Liberation Army Air Force production capacity and anticipated fleet size, as it pertains to the H-20.
The Pentagon’s annual military report on China has consistently cited an H-20 threat, stating as far back as 2018 that the H-20’s 8,500km range armed with 2,000 km range CJ-20 ALCMs can “expand long-range offensive bomber capability beyond the second island chain,” placing areas such as Guam, Hawaii and the US at risk.
The risk with the H-20 is not merely the prospect of a single bomber and its potential to elude even the most advanced air defenses, but also connected to the idea of “massing” stealth bombing attack force at scale. A formation of large numbers of networked H-20s could blanket large areas with threat of cruise missile and nuclear attack. If the bomb-carrying capacity of the aircraft is anything like the B-2, it will be capable of traveling with a large, deadly arsenal of weapons, to include nuclear bombs.
Therefore, beyond the mere question of range and global reach, the H-20 could present a very serious “nuclear-mass” threat, according to top Pentagon researchers studying Chinese weapons and production capacity. Publicly available and published Pentagon research assessments suggest that, in less than a decade, China could potentially deploy a fleet of at least 50 H-20 bombers capable of collectively attacking with hundreds of nuclear warheads. There is also the question that the H-20 could deploy with an ability to fire hypersonic weapons from the air, as the PLA AF has already deployed an air-launched variant of its YJ-21 on an H-6K bomber.
H-20 sensing
A key question related to the H-20 therefore, naturally pertains to the extent to which its computing, sensing, fire control and stealth properties can actually rival the US B-21. There may not be a clear answer, yet a stealthy external configuration does not immediately suggest the platform has comparable advanced computing, sensing, thermal management or weapons integration sufficient to present a credible challenge to the US and be able to defeat US air defenses and a comparable strategic threat as the US B-21.
Overall, however, very little is known about the specifics of the B-21, naturally for security reasons, yet it is discussed by Pentagon leaders as a platform capable of operating as a “sky” node command and control system able to receive, analyze and transmit time sensitive combat data from the air across domains while controlling drones from the cockpit. Few specifics are available, yet the now airborne B-21 is understood to incorporate paradigm-changing levels of new stealth technology.
China Construction
Therefore, while the H-20 may appear similar to a stealthy B-2 or B-21 in terms of external configuration based on available public images, there does not seem to be a clear answer regarding the full extent of the threat. Nonetheless, leading researchers explain that the PLA AF’’s civil-military fusion is well known for its high-optempo production capacity and an ability to “mass” an air-nuclear attack is something the Pentagon is likely taking quite seriously.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University