By Kris Osborn, President, Warrior
(Washington DC) For many years now, Russia has made public displays of its emerging hypersonic weapons, and the world has observed Russia attack Ukraine with guided and unguided missiles. These are circumstances which raise the question as to the extent of the threat Russia's arsenal presents to Europe.
There is a continued nuclear dimension to this, as Russia has for quite some time operate an arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons. This threat has been greatly expanded in more recent years given that Russia has quite publicly stated that its new hypersonic weapons such as Avangard are indeed "dual-capable," meaning they can be configured to travel with tactical nuclear weapons as well.
Since the height of the Cold War in the 1980s and its more recent cancellation of the INF Treaty, Russia has presented a significant threat to the West with its arsenal of tactical nuclear missiles.
In recent years, the threat has been so significant that the Pentagon has built its own growing arsenal of low-yield nuclear weapons options.
US Low Yield Weapons
Years ago, former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told Congress that the intent with the move to add low-yield weapons was not designed to lower the threshold to nuclear war but rather give commanders in charge of deterrence a wider range of options with which to deter Russia. This discussion was following the release and implementation of the former Trump administration's Nuclear Posture Review in 2018 which called for the creation of low-yield nuclear weapons to include new variants of the Trident II D5 and a submarine-launched nuclear-armed cruise missile. The SLCM, as it was called, was cancelled during the Biden administration and has since been resurrected. Years ago, the Pentagon succeeded in developing and deploying a low-yield variant of the Trident II D5, a strategic move to assure Russia that the US would have a wide range of options with which to respond in the event of a nuclear attack.
This US deterrence strategy, however, has not fully deterred Russia from expanding its own nuclear arsenal, something which has heightened Western concerns in recent years. Of particular concern, Russia has engineered several “dual-mode” hypersonic weapons said to be capable of nuclear attack as well as conventional strikes. One such weapon of concern is called the Avangard, a hypersonic, nuclear-capable boost-glide vehicle described by Putin as one of six “next-generation” weapons during a speech in 2018.
Russian Arsenal
Russia’s stockpile of low-yield or tactical nuclear weapons is quite extensive and concerning to the West, as it incorporates small 15-to-20 kilotons bombs, short-range missiles with nuclear warheads and even artillery capable of delivering low-yield nuclear weapons. Overall, an interesting essay in the US Naval Institute as far back as 2018 says Russia operates as many as 2,000 deployable tactical nuclear weapons
“Although exact information about Russia’s and China’s warhead numbers remains unavailable, Russia’s conventional weakness is reflected in the fact that it has the world’s largest inventory of TNWs,” the USNI essay says.
Not Enough Missiles
The challenge with Russia’s arsenal and hypersonic weapons in particular, relates to sheer numbers. Essentially, while the country may have extremely advanced, long-range precise ballistic and hypersonic missiles, it may not have enough of them to have the needed impact in a large-scale conflict. This has already been seen in Ukraine with their short and medium range ballistic and cruise missiles; Russia has been experiencing inventory problems with its arsenal of precision-guided missiles.
Russian Hypersonic Attack
This is likely particularly true of Russia’s hypersonic weapons, such as the Zircon hypersonic cruise missile and the Avangard nuclear-capable hypersonic boost-glide vehicle. However effective or technologically advanced these weapons may be, Russia has had long-standing production and economic problems likely to imperil the country’s ability to “scale” production and manufacture them in the kinds of numbers needed to truly make an impact in a great power warfare situation.
Should Russia succeed in addressing this challenge, its Yasen-M ballistic missile submarines might be able to operate with Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles in sufficient numbers, something which would greatly impact the threat equation. In theory, this means that Russia could launch a nuclear hypersonic strike from the ocean in a larger scale manner designed to generate a “salvo” of nuclear weapons to overwhelm an enemy with high-speed attack. Nuclear-armed hypersonic missiles may simply travel too fast from one radar aperture to another, making them nearly impossible to “track” in a continuous fashion. This is one key reason why the US is fast-tracking a large number of technologies designed to counter hypersonic weapons.
Oreshnik
Most recently, Putin fired a new “Oreshnik” non-nuclear hypersonic ballistic missile in March 2024 at a target in Dnipro. An essay in newsweek said the Oreshnik traveled at massive speeds of 8,400 miles per hour or 2.3 miles per second.
Putin described the weapon, which he called the “Oreshnik,” as a nonnuclear hypersonic ballistic missile which hit a Ukrainian arms factory. He said the attack was a response to President Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to launch US-made ATACMS (ARMY Tactical Missile Systems) missiles at targets inside Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was quoted in last-years Newsweek article as saying the Oreshnik simply cannot be stopped.
“No countermeasures currently exist against such weapons,” Putin said, following the first use of the Oreshnik on November 21. “These missiles strike targets at a speed of Mach 10—2.5 to 3 kilometers per second.”
Kris Osborn is thePresident of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University