by Kris Osborn, Warrior
An observer’s eye look at the sheer “size” of Russia, and this history of its military, might lead one to instantly assume their land Army massively out-numbers the Ukrainian military … yet the difference is not as stark or alarming as one might initially suspect.
Russia operates roughly 1.3 million active duty soldiers, and Ukraine operates with a sizeable 900,000, according to GlobalFirepower.com. Ukraine, however, is stated to operate as many as 1.2 million reserves, a number much less than Russia’s 2 million reserves. A look at the numbers does show that Russia outnumbers Ukraine, but Ukraine also operates a sizable force much larger than some may have anticipated. There are also intangibles related to this equation such as a “will to fight,” something the Ukrainians have demonstrated intensely. This may not be similar on the Russian side, as their force has battled morale problems going back to the start of the war.
With the war now in its third year, many are likely to wonder how much longer each side can continue to sustain casualties and fight? Many independent public estimates report that as many as 800,000 Russians have been killed or severely wounded during the war in Ukraine. This is simply a massive number, and it suggests that more than one-half of its active duty force has been destroyed in the Ukraine war. The impact upon Russian morale as well its population and economy are likely heavily impacted already.
The question this raises is … is there a limit or a breaking point at which Russia would have no choice but to “stop” fighting? Putin seems to have a strong grip on power, yet thousands of continued casualties without victory or resolution in the war is likely to potentially challenge or threaten the status quo to some extent. Also, added to this complexity is the reality that, despite the massive Russian sacrifice in terms of lives, the war essentially remains a “stalemate” with no clear victor emerging.
Morale problem
The Russian Army likely still suffers from a morale problem as well, meaning many Russian soldiers may be reluctant to fight and simply have no interest in killing Ukrainians, most of whom share common ethnic ties with Russians. Early in the war, there were countless anecdotal reports of Russians simply “taking off” and abandoning their military vehicles or fighting positions and refusing to fight. It is likely that Russian morale problems have not only continued but worsened as the war has continued and casualty figures continue to mount. Will there be a point at which Putin can no longer recruit and send young soldiers to die in Ukraine?
Could there come a point at which Russian public opinion and opposition to the war grows to a point such that Putin feels less secure in his hold on power? The free flow of information is greatly compromised in Russia, so it is not clear what Russians know or understand about the war and the extent of the casualties, yet doubts have to start emerging when hundreds of thousands of young Russians keep dying and the war continues.
Has Russia already gone through massive amounts of its 2-million strong reserve force? With Russian casualties hitting 800,000 it would seem quite likely. It is even possible Putin has had to reach well beyond his reserves to require young men to fight as the war continues.
What the casualty rate does is not only take an indescribable human toll, but it also puts pressure on Putin to resolve the conflict in some way or at least agree to a ceasefire. Unless, of course, Putin believes Russia will ultimately prevail and prefers eventual victory to any other alternative regardless of the cost to Russians.
Kris Osborn is President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University