By Kris Osborn, Warrior

The US Navy plans to acquire only 273 F-35Cs spread across a large carrier fleet and the F/A-18 Super Hornet has already flown thousands of flight hours beyond its expected service life. Therefore, not funding, building and acquiring a sizable fleet of F/A-XX 6th-gen carrier-launched stealth fighters could imperil the US Navy’s ability to deter China in the Pacific for a number of key reasons. 

Industry powerhouse vendors Northrop & Boeing are competing and poised to build the new jet, Congress is deliberating the funding for the aircraft and the Pentagon is hoping to surge into the future with a new generation of carrier-launched stealthy 6th-gen fighter jets. Many key variables are hanging in the balance of the F/A-XX future such as questions of stealth, range, fleet size, service life and, perhaps of greatest significance, the threat equation.  

Chinese J-20 Threat

One initial question can simply be understood in terms of the question of “mass,” meaning the US Navy would likely be at a large fleet-size deficit compared with China in the event of a conflict in the Pacific. China is now believed to operate as many as 300 J-20 5th-generation fighters, a sizable available force in position to defend China’s coastal waters up to several hundred miles off shore. Although China cannot launch the J-20 from the ocean as it is a land-launched fighter, it could certainly reach the waters around Taiwan and extend several hundred miles off the shore toward the first island chain. Hundreds of J-20s could form a perimeter formation in a semi-circle off the Chinese coast, positioned to defend a sphere of PLA influence and security. 

F/A-18 Future

The question of “mass” also greatly pertains to the F/A-18 because the classic Hornet and Super Hornet aircraft have already flown thousands of miles beyond their expected service life. A special US Navy Service Life Extension Plan reinforced the F/A-18 airframe, added new sensing and avionics, conformal fuel tanks, digital cockpit displays and specially engineered carrier-landing software called “magic carpet.”  The F/A-18s have also been armed with Infrared Search & Track targeting technology built for high-fidelity imaging and an ability to operate in an EW “jamming” environment.  Despite these many innovations and successful upgrades, the F/A-18 has “maxed” to capacity and simply cannot fly much longer. 

The Chinese threat equation extends far beyond the J-20 as well, given the fast emergence of the now operational carrier-launched J-35 stealthy 5th-gen aircraft. Previously the J-31, the carrier-launched J-35 5th-gen stealth jet is already flying from PLA Navy carriers, and given that China is well known for its civil-military fusion as it pertains to weapons and platform production capacity, a sizeable fleet of J-35s is expected to arrive in coming years. The J-35 looks like the F-35C and may rival its capabilities, depending upon the performance of its computing, sensing, fire control, weapons and agility. 

Chinese 6th-Gen

 Perhaps of even greater concern to the Pentagon, the PLA appears to be accelerating two new, previously unseen 6th-generation aircraft, the Shenyang J-50 and triple engine stealth fighter-bomber hybrid Shenyang J-36. Many details and specifics related to these 6th-gen aircraft are not yet available, however it is entirely conceivable that one or both of them could be carrier-launched. 

Range Deficit

Early speculation and some reporting related to the F-47 and F/A-XX indicate that the Pentagon’s emerging 6th-generation stealth fighters are being built with the ability to fly much longer ranges than existing 5th-gen aircraft. This is of great tactical relevance in the huge expanse of the Pacific, as the Pentagon has indicated that the F-47 will likely operate with a range of 2,000 miles. Should the F/A-XX operate with a similar range, it would introduce new tactical and strategic considerations as it is considerably longer than an F-35C’s overall combat range of 1,300 nautical miles. This means the F/A-XX could strike from greater distances, operate with more dwell time and attack from carriers further off shore without needing a refueler. 

Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University