by Kris Osborn, President, Warrior
((Washington DC)
The highly lethal Russian Iskander missile has been used in recent years to attack and destroy civilians in Ukraine, and Russia is now revving up production of a new, longer-range variant called the Iskander-M able to double the distance at which the weapon can attack.
Russia has essentially doubled the range of its high-speed Iskander missile and surged into a mass production effort of the weapon, a move which multiple reports say could alter the balance of power on the European continent.
This claim may or may not be accurate, and it appears as something to be viewed with a measure of hesitation or skepticism, yet a significant essay from Defence Security Asia reports that the Russians are building a new variant of its Iskander-M ballistic missile able to hit targets as far as 1,000km away, double the range of its existing Iskander-M’s 500km range. While Defense Security Asia cites unnamed “sources” regarding the range extension for the new Iskander 1000, the weapon is certain to be taken seriously by NATO and the West.
The tone of the Defence Security Asia essay seems to indicate that some of its claims may be exaggerated, yet the upgraded missile is stated to be engineered with new countermeasures, passive and active decoys and a next-generation guidance system. The essay adds further specifics, suggesting that the weapon is built with advanced, satellite networking and advanced guidance and precision. Some of its attributes, as written by Defence Asia, say the Iskander 1000 has Autonomous Inertial Navigation Systems, Terrain Contour Matching and an extremely precise Circular Error Probable of 16 feet.
Army Report on Iskander
Even if some of the characterization of the upgraded Iskander missile’s impact upon the threat circumstance confronting NATO are exaggerated, the weapon appears to be taken quite seriously by the Pentagon. A very significant write up on the Iskander-M by the US Army’s Training and Doctrine Command describes the weapon as capable of massive and dangerous speeds of Mach 6-7, stealth and nuclear-capable.
The TRADOC report further describes the Iskander as “quasi ballistic missiles with a published range of 415km, speeds of Mach 607, flight altitude up to 6-50km and nuclear capable stealth missile. Immediately after the launch and upon approach to the target, the missile performs intensive maneuvering to evade anti-ballistic missiles. The missile constantly maneuvers during flight as well.”
The most immediate and concerning element of this missile likely pertains to its hypersonic speeds, as the Pentagon consistently acknowledges the many challenges associated with defending against missiles traveling more than five-times the speed of sound. The US and its allies are working intensely to pioneer a number of cutting-edge hypersonic weapons technologies, yet the reported range of the upgraded Iskander, should it be accurate, could definitely introduce new threats to the European continent.
NATO Counterstrike
There are other variables to consider, however, which may mitigate or offset some of the threat posed by the Iskander 1000, such as the countermeasures or “counter-strike” weapons capable of holding Russia at risk from similar distances. The US Army is now breaking through with its Precision Strike Missile, a high-speed, maneuvering, dual-shot weapon capable of traveling at least 500km if not much farther.
Added to this equation, the US has also now deployed a new, mid-range land-fired missile system called Typhon, an integrated technology capable of launching Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles from ground-based locations. These weapons incorporate range and guidance technologies likely to function as an extremely credible deterrent against Russian efforts to “threaten” Europe with its Iskander 1000. Russia may not be inclined to fire its Iskander 1000 toward NATO, given the clear assurance that NATO could respond with a massive, overwhelming amount of ground-fired intermediate range weapons with advanced guidance and explosives. While the Typhon system does not, at the moment, incorporate hypersonic speeds equivalent to the Iskander 1000, it does present an ability to respond to any mid-range missile attack with large-scale precision missile capability. Also, the US Army’s Long Range Hypersonic Weapon is surging toward operational status and is precisely the kind of weapon in position to counterbalance Russia’s Iskander 1000.
Nonetheless, the speed of the Iskander 1000 could at the moment appear to present substantial challenges to NATO in a variety of respects. Yet as is often the case with Russia, they regularly lack an ability to “mass-produce” or “scale” Its exquisite, next-generation of weapons. While several Iskander 1000s do present a threat, at the moment it would appear Russia would be at a loss to fire a “salvo” or “overwhelming” number of the missiles. This would greatly marginalize their impact as the weapon would be unable to “blanket” or “mitigate” NATO’s expansive missile defense apparatus which includes Aegis Ashore, Patriot Systems and other countermeasures. These defenses, coupled with the assurance of a counter strike ability, might give Putin “pause” to actually use the weapon. This dynamic will also be greatly altered if, as the reports indicate, Russia is now somehow able to “mass-produce” these weapons to present a “massed” or “scaled” threat.
Kris Osborn is President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
