By Kris Osborn, President, Warrior
(Washington DC) I
The US Air Force’s 6th-Gen Next Generation Air Dominance effort has exploded onto the scene as the new, ultra high speed, stealthy F-47, yet there is a concurrent and equally substantial F/A-XX program to engineer a stealthy, carrier launched F/A-18 Super Hornet replacement capable of bringing new dimensions of stealth, speed and maritime power projection capability to the US Navy. A fast, stealthy, sea-launched companion to the current stealthy F-35C could prove quite impactful as it would greatly increase the scale at which Navy carriers could operate stealth 5th and 6th-gen aircraft from the ocean
In a surprising and somewhat unexpected development, Lockheed Martin is officially “out” of the US Navy’s cutting edge F/A-XX Next Generation Air Dominance competition due to what reports say was a government determination that they did not meet requirements.
This development leaves only Northrop Grumman and Boeing as primary competitors for the 6th-gen effort, which seeks to engineer a new, stealthy, high-speed, next generation carrier-launched fighter. The effort brings great promise, as it will bring an ultra-high-speed paradigm-changing air attack ability to the US Navy’s evolving Carrier Air Wing. In concept, the arrival of F/A-XX is quite substantial, as it could bring an F-22-like, high-speed maneuverable fighter to the realm of carrier launched attack. The Navy’s NGAD could generate a platform potentially superior to the F-22 in terms of speed, agility, maneuverability and sensing, given current advances in the realm of AI, targeting and stealth.
An essay in the Aviationist, which cites sources from Breaking Defense familiar with the program, further indicates that Lockheed does not plan to “rejoin” the effort, a significant development which considerably narrows the field for the competition. The implications of this development are as significant as they are surprising, given Lockheed’s well-established F-35 and F-22 expertise. Certainly Lockheed’s departure invites a new generation of speculation surrounding Lockheed’s future ambitions, as it may be progressing with the Air Force’s NGAD effort, unmanned stealth fighters, upgrades to extend, upgrade and improve F-35 and F-22 operational success or other yet-to-be known priorities. This also potentially opens the door to F/A-18-maker Boeing and F-14 Tomcat maker Northrop Grumman, either one of which could establish a massive and long-term foothold into a new era of maritime air war.
F-35 & F-22 Future
One thing to potentially consider with this development is the continued large-scale emphasis the Pentagon is placing upon F-22 and F-35 modernization and upgrade efforts, an indication that these 5th-generation platforms could be propelled into the future in a manner that sustains and improves combat effectiveness. There is potentially an underlying element of all this related to a broader picture of technological advancement, as both the F-35 and F-22 can become almost entirely different, more capable aircraft without needing major changes in their external configuration. Certainly renderings of 6th-generation aircraft suggest that next-generation air agility prowess may be achieved with new “tail-less” and “fin-less” external configurations, yet advances in sensing, targeting, weaponry and AI-enabled computing will continually enable F-22 and F-35 aircraft to surge into new realms of capability. This has already been shown to be the case, as computing, software and sensing upgrades have already massively enhanced F-22 and F-35 performance parameters.
Incremental software “drops” with the F-35 are quickly expanding its weapons capacity and will continue to do so in the future. Software enhancements have already enabled the F-35 to improve weapons integration, fire-control interface and accommodate new weapons such as the Stormbreaker. The Raytheon-built Stormbreaker is a new generation of all-weather air attack technology which can track targets to distances of 40-nautical miles and leverage RF, laser or millimeter wave targeting. Moving forward, the technical infrastructure of the F-35 will likely allow the fighter to integrate new generations of yet-to-exist weapons. AI-enabled computing and advances in sensing technology are likely to further extend the range of the F-35s sensing, targeting and attack capability. Data processing enhancements will also improve the aircraft’s Mission Data Files threat library and ability to aggregate, process and analyze fast-arriving information. There will also likely be future enhancements in the realm of stealth, such as new radar absorbent materials and thermal management enhancements. Perhaps most of all, fast-emerging new applications of AI will quite-likely vastly improve the aircraft’s overall attack capability for decades into the future. What this means is that emerging technologies will allow the F-35 to continuously adapt and become an almost entirely new aircraft without needing to change or greatly alter its basic configuration. All of these factors are a critical part of the Pentagon’s F-35 strategy which has, for many years now, been focused on “continuous improvement” for the purpose of flying the F-35 all the way into the 2070s.
Circumstances with the F-22 are quite similar, as the aircraft has been significantly changed and improved in recent years through technological upgrades and is now at the early stages of acquiring new sensing technology likely to successfully catapult the aircraft into a future threat environment. For instance, the entire fleet of F-22s have been upgraded with a software enhancement called 3.2b which greatly improved the effectiveness of its weapons systems. Air launched weapons such as the AIM-120D and AIM-9X have received new hardening, guidance and range capabilities due to the 3.2b software upgrade. Lockheed has also worked with the Air Force to preserve and reinforce its stealth coating, and new, yet-to-be discovered composite materials might also enhance its stealth properties.
Lockheed Future
What all of this suggests is that, quite clearly, the F-22 and F-35 are not going anywhere. Maintaining and improving these two aircraft for decades into the future, along with potential Air Force NGAD involvement and other massive projects, will likely keep Locheed successfully engaged and quite busy for decades surging into the future. Technological breakthroughs and incremental upgrades could ensure that the F-22 and F-35 could operate in close synergy with NGAD and remain relevant if not superior against new adversary threats surging into the future.
Kris Osborn is President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
