By Kris Osborn, President, Warrior
The Pentagon’s emerging 6th-generation stealth fighter, now called the F-47, could prove essential in any effort to contain or defeat China in the air in the Pacific for a number of key reasons; it seems conceivable that the Pentagon might engineer a Pacific-specific F-47 variant designed to prevail in the extensive ranges or “tyranny of distance” known to characterize the region. A Pacific F-47 could be configured with larger fuel tanks for a massively expanded range, something potentially of great significance in a large-scale air war with China.
While the growing, multi-service and multi-national fleet of F-35s continues to present a formidable deterrent in the Pacific theater, some might wonder if the current deterrence posture in the air needs the F-47 to meet a fast-evolving Chinese threat in future years.
The concept of a specially configured long-range F-47 for the Pacific makes a lot of sense.
Does the US Air Force need a new long-range, stealthy high-tech 6th-generation fighter to confront the growing mixture of threats presented by China in the Pacific theater? This may have been part of the thinking driving President Trump’s decision to build the F-47.
Research Supporting F-47
A research essay by the Dept. of the Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI) from October, 2024, as cited in an essay in Warrior Maven, sheds light on the question of a possible 6th-Gen as part of a broader analysis of the kind of Pacific strategy best pursued by the US Air Force.
The paper, called “Charting the Course: How the PLA’s Regional and Global Strategies Should Influence the US Air Force’s Lines of Effort,” draws upon research to make some key recommendations. Specifically, 5th-generation aircraft were not necessarily built with a China threat in mind, a critical point the CASI paper makes.
“Aircraft like the F-22 and F-35 were built to penetrate enemy IADS and dominate the Su-series aircraft, predominant in the European theater. Informing the design of these aircraft was a mostly contiguous geographic region that provided short distances and a plethora of viable airfields where the “tyranny of distance” was not a factor. Furthermore, the requirements for the F-35 were developed during a time when the Air Force had many more fighter squadrons than today,” the CASI essay writes, as quoted in Warrior.
The CASI research paper points out potential limitations central to the current US Air Force posture, yet does not specifically say a certain kind of manned NGAD must exist. However, the CASI paper does seem to align with the kind of thinking which likely informed the decision to build the F-47, because clearly something beyond the F-22 and F-35 might be needed in a confrontation with China. The expanse of the Pacific, as suggested by the essay, seems to call for the corresponding need to develop assets, weapons and platforms optimized for dispersed, multi-domain, long-range ground-sea-air warfare across a massive ocean, land & island expanse.
Long-Range 6th-Gen for Pacific
The Pacific of course includes vast distances of ocean separating islands, large land masses and ocean stretching thousands of miles from Northern Japan and the Korean Peninsula South to Australia. There are tactically relevant distances within the Pacific which, depending upon a given contingency, will need to be considered, as Taiwan is a very “reachable” 100 miles from the Chinese mainland. This Chinese proximity advantage, however, can be greatly mitigated or offset by forward-operating US Navy carriers and F-35B-armed amphibs within a few hundred miles of Taiwan.
F-35 Limitations in Asia
A map shows that the distance between the Northern-most parts of the Philippines and Southern Taiwan is only 155 miles, a circumstance which would seem to enable US allied 5th-generation aircraft to defend Taiwan from land-bases in the Philippines. An F-35A, for instance, operates with a range of 1,380 miles with a full weapons load could reach air-space over Taiwan and operate with some dwell time without needing to refuel with a risky and highly vulnerable tanker aircraft. This defensive posture would require the US to base F-35As in the Philippines, a deterrence concept which seems to make strategic sense.
Despite this possibility, the CASI essay points out that even an F-35A would be confronted with clear range challenges in the expansive Pacific, an area well known for its “tyranny of distance.”
“Platforms like the F-35 were designed for a European theater focused on a Russian threat. Although a versatile fighter platform, the F-35A lacks long-range and heavy payload capacity,” the report states. A longer-range, yet stealthy and highly advanced F-47 6th-generation aircraft, however, might be able to address this deficiency and position the US to prevail in an engagement with China.
Portions of this essay first appeared in 1945
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
