Does The US Air Force Need a Pacific 6th-Gen Stealth Fighter Variant?

By Kris Osborn, President, Warrior

Does the US Air Force need a new long-range, stealthy high-tech 6th-generation fighter to confront the growing mixture of threats presented by China in the Pacific theater? While the growing, multi-service and multi-national fleet of F-35s continues to present a formidable deterrent in the region, some might wonder if the current deterrence posture in the air is insufficient to meet a fast-evolving Chinese threat in future years.

The size of the US, Korean and Japanese fleet of F-35s is expanding exponentially, and the recently added US military bases in the Philippines and Japan could present new opportunities for the US to “forward-position” more F-35s in the Pacific. While the PLA operates a growing fleet of 5th-gen J-20 aircraft, it is land-launched and may not rival larger numbers of F-35s or an air-dominant F-22 in the Pacific.  At the moment and in the near future, the US and its allies may be well-positioned to achieve air-superiority in any major engagement with China, particularly if greater numbers of F-35s continue to arrive throughout the region.  This is particularly true should the US Navy continue forward positioning F-35-armed carriers and amphibs in the Pacific. At the moment, the growing fleet of US and allied F-35s seem well position to counter any PLA threat in the air.

However, surging into future years, will a force of F-22s and F-35s be sufficient to counter a fast-modernizing People’s Liberation Army Air Force? The PLA has already revealed a “rendering” of its 6th-gen aircraft, and US 5th-generation aircraft might face substantial range challenges in the Pacific theater.  A just published Oct. 14 research essay by the Dept. of the Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI) sheds light on this question as part of a broader analysis of the kind of Pacific strategy best pursued by the US Air Force. The paper, called “Charting the Course: How the PLA’s Regional and Global Strategies Should Influence the US Air Force’s Lines of Effort,” delivers a host of recommendations regarding what might constitute an optimal US Air Force Pacific strategy. 

“Aircraft like the F-22 and F-35 were built to penetrate enemy IADS and dominate the Su-series aircraft, predominant in the European theater. Informing the design of these aircraft was a mostly contiguous geographic region that provided short distances and a plethora of viable airfields where the “tyranny of distance”xxi was not a factor. Furthermore, the requirements for the F-35 were developed during a time when the Air Force had many more fighter squadrons than today,” the CASI essay writes. 

NGAD for the Pacific? 

When Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Charles Brown was the Chief of Staff of the Air Force several years ago, he said the service was considering two different variants for an NGAD fighter, to include a longer-range aircraft for the Pacific and a smaller, shorter range 6th-gen fighter for Europe.  It is not clear if this thinking still exists, as the current approach seems quite different.  The very existence of an advanced, manned 6th-generation stealth fighter jet is now being re-evaluated, according to Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall.  Speaking recently at the Air Force Association Symposium, Kendall confirmed that NGAD selection has been “paused” and that the effort was being “re-evaluated” 

“We’re looking at a range of alternatives, and crewed versus uncrewed is one of the things we’re thinking about. … I believe that we’re probably going to do one more version of a crewed, more traditional aircraft. I don’t know exactly what that aircraft will look like yet,” Kendall said, as quoted in DefenseScoop. “It’s design to make it able to control CCAs effectively and fight with CCAs — I think is a question mark. Whether there’ll be variants that might be crewed or uncrewed is another question mark.”