by Kris Osborn, Warrior
(Washington DC) Pentagon weapons developers, Combatant Commanders and budget decision-makers have spent many years regretting and lamenting the decision to stop F-22 production years ago, as the performance of the aircraft and its perceived air combat “value” has driven demand for the Raptor far beyond available supply. The Air Force suffers from an F-22 shortage, resulting from a decision to truncate manufacturing in 2009 when the US military was immersed in the war on terror. The service has 186 F-22s, a fraction of the 750-airframe fleet size envisioned at the beginning of the program.
F-22 Sidelined in War on Terror
Emerging at the end of the Cold War, the F-22 was likely viewed as an answer to modernized Russian air defenses and advanced Russian and Chinese 4th-generation aircraft. During the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the threat of great power war was sidelined to a degree in large measure due to the pressing focus on counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency. At this time, weapons developers and decision makers may have suffered from “short-term” thinking and made decisions without fully realizing the growing anticipated threat of great power rivals.
The result of this “lack of vision,” one might say, is that the Air Force was left with far too few F-22s, a reality made more difficult by the successful performance and upgradeability of the aircraft. Since taking to the sky in 2005, the Raptor has become an almost entirely new aircraft due to software upgrades, weapons improvements, electronics advances and stealth coating maintenance. One fleet-wide software upgrade in particular, called 3.2b, improved range, precision and durability for several critical air-to-air weapons such as the AIM-9X and AIM-120D. The Raptor has also had its stealth coating and radar absorbent materials maintained and upgraded over the years through numerous deals between Lockheed and the Air Force. The Air Force has also massively reworked its communications technology for the F-22 and, for instance, enabled two-way LINK 16 connectivity with the F-35 and hardened data exchange with 4th-generation aircraft.
Interestingly, the F-22’s Concepts of Operation have also evolved, as its combat debut against ISIS in 2014 showed it was quite capable as a Close-Air-Support platform. While not surprising per se, this mission expansion seems quite significant in light of the reality that the F-22 was originally intended as an air-dominance, air-to-air superiority platform. It very much is that, yet throughout the course of its service life its mission envelope and technologies have expanded into the realm of sensing, communications and CAS, among other things.
Block 20 F-22
There are many factors to consider for the Air Force as it entertains the question of how to address this F-22 shortage predicament; there simply are not F-22s to support a major great power air war contingency, particularly when one considers the vast expanse of the Pacific. The Air Force lists the F-22 as having an overall range of roughly 1,600 nautical miles if it carries two external fuel tanks. Not only would large external fuel tanks decrease the F-22s stealth effectiveness, but an 800 mile combat radius could present challenges for the aircraft in the Pacific theater. Unless, of course, large numbers of F-22s were based in the Philippines, South Korea and Southern Japan. However, even in this case the F-22 would likely encounter operational limitations in a large-scale conflict in China, in large measure due to there simply being too few of them.
Solve the F-22 Problem?
When it comes to addressing or solving the Air Force’s F-22 shortage problem, there are several possibilities likely to be under consideration by decision makers. One answer would simply be to massively fast-track an extremely large fleet of F-47s, yet that will take years to materialize. There is yet another option now getting traction which might make great sense for the Air Force, given how upgradeable the platform has shown to be. An essay in The War Zone says Air Force is currently talking to Lockheed Martin about modernizing its entire group of 35 Block 20 F-22s, the oldest aircraft in the fleet. In recent years, they have been used as training aircraft and some have considered plans to scrap them to the boneyard, given that they are now decades old and have not had the same upgrades as the majority of the fleet. Essentially, older Block 20 F-22s could be upgraded to modern capability standards as a way to enlarge the overall fleet. This makes great sense, particularly in light of the F-22's history of successful upgrades. The F-22 airframes are likely still viable and capable of being strengthened and reinforced with structural materials, electronics and stealth coating technologies.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University