By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization (Washington D.C.) Abrams tanks are on the way to Ukraine, a massive and potentially paradigm-changing move in support of the ongoing Ukrainian efforts to reclaim and advance through Russian held territory with heavily armored, mechanized force-on-force Combined Arms Maneuver. …. However the operative questions are..can they get there fast enough? Will Ukraine get enough of them? Of equal significance, will Ukrainian fighters know how to use them and, given that the Abrams is known to operate with logistical challenges and complexities, can they be maintained? ABRAMS TANKS Clearly the Abrams tank [https://warriormaven.com/land/army-abrams-tanks]could be quite impactful in Ukraine, yet only 31 have thus far been authorized to be sent. Is that enough? Certainly the Ukrainians have some Soviet-era T-72s [https://warriormaven.com/russia-ukraine/heavy-armor-us-abrams-german-leopard-2-tanks-ukraine] and are of course receiving Bradleys, yet it seems the Ukrainians will need to “mass” in larger formations to truly “hold” large areas of territory. Bradleys [https://warriormaven.com/russia-ukraine/heavy-armor-us-abrams-german-leopard-2-tanks-ukraine], Abrams and other armored vehicles may help Ukrainians breach a Russian perimeter and “close with an enemy” using heavily armored attack formations, yet fully reclaiming Ukraine may require more Wide Area Maneuvers wherein greater numbers of tanks and armored vehicles expand across a more dispersed area in disaggregated, yet networked formations preserving the necessary “range of fire.” The new AbramsX, recently unveiled by General Dynamics Land Systems at the Association of the United States Army Annual Symposium, blends key elements of combat-tested heavy armor with new, potentially paradigm-changing innovations designed to propel tactical and combat capabilities for the Abrams tank decades into the future. Video Above: New AbramsX -- AI-Enabled, Fuel-Efficient, Unmanned Turret & "Silent" Attack This will be critical, as Ukraine's long term success may depend largely upon an ability to truly "pivot" from its successful more defensively oriented hit-and-run, ambush-style anti-armor fight which stopped Russia's initial advance into more mechanized offensive operations designed to retake and hold territory. The Pentagon, NATO [https://warriormaven.com/russia-ukraine/russia-air-superiority-ukraine-russia-ukraine-war] and the 50-nation-strong Ukraine Contact Group have all supported this, which is why many more tactical trucks, support vehicles and logistical equipment have been sent to Ukraine in recent months, as advancing forces claiming territory need sustainment, troop transport, supplies and protection to secure their advances The Pentagon says larger numbers of tanks will arrive over time as they are built for and sent to Ukraine through a special Ukraine contracting vehicle established to enable US weapons builders to produce new platforms for Ukraine. “Our intent is to procure new Abrams tanks and a more modern variant (M1A2 [https://warriormaven.com/land/the-top-10-tanks-in-the-world]) through Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funding, although we will consider other potential options during this process,” Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon spokesman, told reporters in a written statement. Should sufficient numbers of US provided Abrams tanks be spread apart, yet still operate close enough to sustain firing range so as not to leave vulnerabilities or gaps, the Ukrainians might be in position to hold large swaths of territory. Unlike penetrating and potentially holding a more localized or smaller area with a few tanks and Bradleys, these kinds of Wide Area Maneuvers might be necessary for Ukraine to ultimately prevail. Certainly in the short term, the arrival of more heavy armor will slow down, stop or potentially destroy Russian efforts to seize new areas, yet an ultimate Ukrainian victory will likely require much greater amounts of heavy armor. A key reason for this is that, despite the Russian military’s tactical failures, morale problems and poor Combined Arms Maneuver, they do have simple numbers. Global Firepower’s 2022 Ukraine-Russia [https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-comparison-detail.php?country1=ukraine&country2=russia]military comparison says Russia operates 12,566 tanks, as compared to Ukraine’s 1,890 tanks. Certainly many of Russia’s Soviet-era tanks are not likely maintained well or effectively modernized, this numbers discrepancy is massive. What comes after the Abrams? Video Above: What comes after the Abrams? Assistant Secretary of Army Acquisition, Logistics and Technology Talks Future of Tanks Simply put, this amount of available Russian hardware, combined with the expansive geography, seems to suggest that Ukraine will need hundreds if not thousands more tanks to ultimately prevail. The exact technological capacity of the Ukrainian export variants may not be known, yet their ultimate success will likely depend upon the range and fidelity of their targeting sensors and thermal sights. For example, the now very famous Gulf War tank battles were won by US Army Abrams tanks in large measure due to the effectiveness, range and resolution of their thermal sights. US Army tank crews were seeing and destroying Iraqi T-72 [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-72] at standoff ranges from where they were themselves not being seen. With this example in mind, the effectiveness of the arriving Abrams may, to a large extent, depend upon which upgrades and technologies the Ukrainian tanks have. Today’s upgraded US Army Abrams [https://warriormaven.com/russia-ukraine/ukraine-tanks-counteroffensive-pentagon-abrams], for instance, is an entirely different weapons system than the tanks which first emerged in the 1980's, as they have new computing, electronics, on-board power, ammunition, armor materials and, perhaps most of all, high-resolution, long range Forward Looking Infrared targeting sights. Export variants of the Abrams tanks have been in development for Poland for more than a year now, and the Center for Military Modernization suggested last year that perhaps some of them could be routed to Ukraine, as the Ukrainians have had this need for quite some time. Nevertheless, new and upgraded Abrams will be built for Ukraine, in part because there simply is not a large enough existing US inventory. Many options have yet to be considered, however at this moment the Pentagon does not plan to send any of the US Marine Corps tanks that were recently divested from the force. Pentagon officials say it will take months to get these tanks to Ukraine. Robots Destroy Tanks, Army Tests & Accelerates Armed Robots for War Video Above: Robots Destroy Tanks, Army Tests & Accelerates Armed Robots for War “We just don't have these tanks available in excess in our U.S. stocks, which is why it is going to take months to transfer these M1A2 Abrams [https://warriormaven.com/land/abrams-m1a2-sepv3] to Ukraine. And I think that you have to remember, I mean, as you probably know, these tanks are going to require training, maintenance, and sustainment that is going to take a very long time to also train the Ukrainians on,” Sabrina Singh, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary, told reporters in a recent Pentagon discussion with reporters. Singh’s point here seems quite significant, as Abrams tanks are known for presenting logistical complexities. They need large amounts of fuel to be transported and require substantial maintenance and sustainment. Also, as Singh mentions, Ukrainians are not trained on Abrams tanks. Forward operating tanks will need to be supported by logistical equipment, tactical trucks and supplies to sustain an advancing offensive force. Food, ammunition, supplies and force protection equipment, including organic air surveillance in the form of small drones or other kinds of supportive ISR. However, if large enough numbers of Abrams tanks can get to their forces, soon enough..Ukrainians might be positioned to ultimately prevail. How might larger numbers be used? This is something of great importance given the vast, expansive amounts of territory in Ukraine and in Russia along its border with Ukraine. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army - Acquisition, Logistics& Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has a Masters in Comparative Literature from Columbia University. Kris Osborn, Center for Military Modernization [https://warriormaven.com/.image/c_fit,h_600,w_600/MTk0NzQ0NTgxNzMwODcwNDM0/afrl-stockbrige-1227.jpg] Kris Osborn, Center for Military Modernization
