Red Sea By Kris Osborn, President, Warrior A surprise attack on Taiwan, unexpected incursions into the South China Sea, violations of Japanese airspace or continued provocations and aggression against the Philippines are merely a few of the fast-evolving Chinese threats likely being watched closely by the Pentagon. Certainly, efforts to mobilize and strengthen a US-allied deterrence posture in the Pacific are rapidly expanding to include new US-Japan and US-Philippine military alliances, basing, cooperation and training exercises. The US is opening new military bases in the Philippines, expanding its military headquarters in Japan and further solidifying multi-national training and war-preparation exercises. Given this, the security threats presented by China continue to receive considerable amounts of attention for reasons and are both known and largely self-evident, as the PRC is massively fast tracking its military modernization and rapidly expanding its force size. This includes a staggering increase in its nuclear arsenal which includes the addition of ground-based ICBM silos throughout mainland China and well documented expansion of nuclear warheads with multiple re-entry vehicles. These developments continue to be analyzed in the Pentagon’s annual public China report Volumes of analysis continue to be written on the growing scope of the Chinese threat, Congress has launched a special bipartisan “select” committee dedicated to tracking the PRC threat and of course the US and its allies are continuing a large military buildup in the Pacific. Chinese Threat to US Homeland There is, however, an extremely significant yet perhaps lesser recognized growing Chinese threat cited in recently published US Army intel analysis related to threats to the US homeland. There has been much writing in Pentagon and private analyses about the growing “nuclear” threat to the continental US presented by the PLA Navy’s new long-range JL-3 submarine-launched nuclear missile launched from Jin-class submarines, a weapon reportedly able to travel 4,000 miles to targets. As an upgrade to the current JL-2, the JL-3 is recognized in Pentagon reports as a weapon which can hold Hawaii and even mainland US cities at risk from closer-in areas of the Pacific Ocean. These annual Pentagon reports, called Military and Security Developments Regarding the People’s Republic of China [https://media.defense.gov/2023/Oct/19/2003323409/-1/-1/1/2023-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA.PDF], have over the years cited the JL-3 and documented the size, scope and range of China’s growing arsenal of nuclear and conventional weapons. Beyond these known threats, however, it appears there also may be other long-range precision conventional missile Chinese threats fast emerging as well, according to the Army’s intel analysis called “The Operational Environment 2024-2034 Large-Scale Combat Operations.” [https://oe.tradoc.army.mil/2024/07/31/the-operational-environment-2024-2034-large-scale-combat-operations/] (US Army Training and Doctrine Command, G2) “The Homeland is likely to no longer be a sanctuary during a future LSCO (Large-Scale Combat Operations) conflict. China, Russia, and other adversaries are investing heavily in hybrid and irregular capabilities, such as information and cyber operations, to attack soft targets and systems within the territory of the United States and its Allies,” the text of the report writes. The analysis makes the point that these kinds of aggressive, yet-non kinetic and non-attributable kinds of attacks can create an “outsized effect” at a low cost and a lower risk of escalation. Following this discussion, the Army analysis goes yet another step further, citing the risk of follow-on “attributable” (kinetic) long-range precision attacks with conventional weapons, drone swarms and other emerging weapons able to threaten the continental US in unprecedented ways. “At the onset of LSCO, adversaries will probably shift from non attributable cyber and information operations toward more destructive, physical effects. Adversaries are likely to escalate their actions using ultra-long-range systems with conventional payloads, asymmetric platforms, commercial-off the-shelf UAS, and sabotage to threaten key infrastructure and operations,” the text of the report writes. Chinese Long-Range Missile Threat What kinds of emerging PLA long-range precision conventional weapons might hold the continental US at risk? Certainly ship and submarine-launched weapons can present new threats, depending upon how closely they are able to operate from US shores, however there may be newer long-range conventional weapons expected to emerge from the PLA in coming months-years. The Army report does not mention a specific long-range conventional PLA weapon but does discuss the threat of long-range Chinese conventional missile attack. The TRADOC analysis publishes a chart showing ranges of the PRC’s short and intermediate range ballistic missiles, such as the DF-27 capable of traveling 200km. The PLA’s existing arsenal of Short and Intermediate range ballistic missiles cited in the Army graphic demonstrates that China can easily hold Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines and parts of the South China Sea at risk of conventional missile attack. The longest range cited by the Army graphic of IRBM and SRBMs includes a mention of an PLA Air Force H-6 bomber’s ability to fire an air-launched cruise missile to attack targets as far as 550km. China is also live-fire testing a surface warship and air bomber launched hypersonic weapon known as the YJ-21, however this new weapon maxes out at a 1,000-mile range. Could China possess a long-range conventional weapon capable of traveling from mainland China to the US? While most ICBMs are built specifically to carry nuclear weapons, the prospect of conventionally armed ICBMs is by no means impossible. The Pentagon has explored this possibility over the years, through a weapons program formerly known as the Conventional Strike Missile, yet weapons developers have wanted to ensure a conventional attack is never mistaken for a nuclear strike. It is possible the PRC does not have similar ethical concerns. The US air-launched nuclear-capable cruise missile, the Long-Range Stand Off weapon is developing US Air Force weapon configured for both conventional and military attacks as needed. The threat and the possibility that China is developing an intercontinental conventional long-range ballistic missile seems quite realistic, given the pace at which China is modernizing and expanding its arsenal. Naturally details or speculation regarding the possibility of new long-range PLA ballistic missiles is not something likely to be discussed in a public report for obvious security reasons, yet text of the report is quite clear and specific about the realistic possibility of a long-range Chinese conventional missile attack,, if in a general way. The emergence of such a Chinese weapon would make tactical and strategic sense for the PLA, as there does appear to be a “gap” in the realm of its long-range missile attack capability. An interesting public analysis called “Missile Threat” [https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/china/]from the CSIS Missile Defense Project lists nuclear-armed ICBMs as PLA weapons, such as the DF-41, capable of traveling across continents up to ranges of 15,000km. The shortest distance between the mainland US and Chinese coastline is listed at 7,058 miles, a range therefore within reach of the PLA DF-41, an ICBM listed as having a 15,000 km maximum range, a distance which is roughly 9,000 miles. The DF-41 can therefore threaten many parts of the continental US from ICBM silos on mainland China. Certainly the Pentagon has been aware of this, as there continue to be massive upgrades to US nuclear missiles defenses such as modernized Ground-Based Interceptors and the emerging Next-Generation Interceptor. However, what about equally long-range PLA conventional weapons? The “Missile Threat” research paper does list the DF-4 missile as capable of both conventional and nuclear attack at ranges out to 5,500km, a range not quite long enough to travel from mainland China to the continental US. Therefore, it seems entirely feasible that indeed China is likely to be developing even longer-range conventional land, air and surface-fired ballistic missiles, a reality suggested in the Army report. A look at the Chinese arsenal as detailed in “Missile Threat” would suggest that the PLA may have a gap in its ability to fire long-range conventional ballistic missiles from mainland China to the continental US. Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven - Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
