By Kris Osborn, President, Warrior Maven The pace at which the People’s Republic of China is building and adding Navy ships and aircraft carriers is not likely to be overlooked at Pentagon and throughout the world. China is fast expanding its global power projection ability, and perhaps even more concerning to the Pentagon is the very visible extent to which China’s third “Fujian” aircraft carrier appears to “replicate” or simply copy elements of the US Navy’s Ford-class carriers. The PLA-Navy’s “Fujian” third carrier is now on the ocean for sea trials, a development which introduces a number of critical threat variables , the most pertinent of which may be questions of presence, reach and construction speed. The PRC has added a second large shipyard, blended civil and military construction and is fast adding a new class of carriers. China has already deployed “dual carrier” war preparations similar to the US and had also sent its second carrier, the Shandong, on deployments near Taiwan and the South China Sea, With the Fujian, China has abandoned a ski-jump kind of formation and instead migrated toward a large, flat-deck design similar to the US Navy’s Ford class. How dangerous is the PLA-N’s carrier fleet at the moment? Certainly in a clear initial sense, more carriers for China means their Navy can project power many more places throughout the globe to establish presence, exert influence and even hold areas at risk of sea-launched air attack. This aligns with the well-known Chinese strategy to become a dominant global power and expand far beyond its Pacific influence. While three aircraft carriers are far less than the US Navy’s 11 carriers, the civil-military fusion and production capacity generates concern about the pace at which the PLA may be closing the gap. Chinese Carrier Carrier Air Wing? Upon closer examination, however, China’s third carrier seems challenged to present a real threat to the US Navy due to its Carrier Air Wing. A carrier can only maximize combat input to the extent enabled by its Carrier Air Wing, and at the moment China has no sea-launched 5th-generation stealth aircraft. The PLA-N does have several prototypes of an F-35C look alike called the J-31, yet it is not yet operational or available in impactful numbers. China’s 5th-gen J-20 is confined to land runway take-off and would need refueling and forward basing to maximize impact, so the PLAN would be operating with a very large 5th-generation air attack deficit should it engage in combat at sea with the US Navy. The US Navy can already travel with and deploy more than 40 F-35Cs on a carrier, but has also deployed as many as 20 F-35Bs on its America-class amphibs. Therefore, the US Navy would operate with an extremely significant margin of air superiority should there be a blue-water naval war between the US and China. JR_Mcdonald Lockheed F-35 This Chinese deficit, however, may not last long and it is certainly conceivable that the PLA-N could present sea-launched 5th-generation air threats in impactful numbers in a matter of a few years. However, they will need to produce massive amounts of 5th-generation aircraft to present any kind of credible air threat to the US and its Japanese and South Korean allies. PLA leaders likely know this, and it is likely the possibility of attacking Taiwan may still be a few years away. At the moment, any Chinese naval force would be extremely vulnerable to forward-positioned US F-35s and growing numbers of F-35s in Japan and South Korea. Japan, for example, has already shown it can deploy F-35Bs in warships in the Pacific, so China seems well overmatched in the realm of air power. For this reason, the arrival of the Fujian does not introduce a pressing or immediate threat to the Taiwan and the West, provided the US and its alludes can forward operate sufficient numbers of F-35s. US Navy Electromagnetic Air Launch Systems (EMALs), not only allow for smoother, more efficient launches but also greatly reduce stress or wear and tear on airframes, something which extends service life, power projection and sustained aircraft performance. The exact extent of the technological sophistication being built into electromagnetic propulsion for China’s Fujian may not be known, yet it is likely getting attention at the Pentagon as an area of concern. Chinese Navy Type 075 amphibs and Type 055 destroyers. While there are likely many unanswered questions regarding capabilities, the PLA’s fast-growing Navy seems to closely “mirror” US Navy platforms and concepts of operation. The PLA-Navy Type 055 new destroyers look like a hybrid blending of stealthy-type Zumwalt-like features and a helicopter-launching, armed DDG 51 US Navy attack warship. China’s new Type 075 amphibious assault ships closely resemble the US Ford-class carriers, and China’s “Fujian” not only has a flat, larger, Ford-like deck space but also uses a similar electromagnetic catapult. China’s growing amphibious assault capability is also a likely source of concern, as it greatly increases any threat to Taiwan from the sea. Any such attempt, however, would likely have trouble being successful without any kind of sea-launched 5th-generation aircraft or ability to respond to US Navy surface and air counterattack should the US have sufficiently “forward positioned” naval platforms. These factors are likely why the US Navy is persistent in ongoing efforts to operate in the Pacific and conduct war preparation drills An interesting 2022 essay from the Naval War College called “China Maritime Report” [https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1022&context=cmsi-maritime-reports]specifies the threats presented by the PLA-N’s fast-growing amphibious attack capability introduced by the arrival of its Type 075 amphibious assault ships. “For the first time, the PLAN had an amphibious warship capable of hosting significant rotary wing forces while acting as the flagship for an amphibious task force. Now with three Type 075 class ships either in or soon to be in service, the PLAN has expanded its amphibious capability even further,” the Naval War College essay writes. Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven - Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
