By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization The Iranian attack on Israel using hundreds of ballistic missiles raises significant new questions about the evolution of missile defense, the condition and effectiveness of Iran's arsenal and the possibility of new concepts of operation aimed at leveraging new technologies capable of sensing, tracking and destroying incoming missile threats at stand-off ranges from the air. What part of Iran's ballistic missile arsenal may have been used for the recent massive "bolt out of the blue" kind of attack on Israel? Which defensive systems are likely responsible for such a successful defense? By all public reports, the Israeli Defense Forces have said that they were able to destroy about 99-percent of Iran's incoming missiles. How? Israel's successful defense introduces significant tactical implications, because while precision interceptors such as Iron Dome and the Patriot missile recently provided by the US can certainly track and destroy individual attacks or even several attacking missiles at one time, even the most advanced or precise interceptors might be challenged to defend against a salvo of incoming Iranian missiles. However, while IDF defenses such as Patriot and Iron Dome are increasing capable of destroying multiple incoming targets simultaneously, it appears the IDF may have supplemented its air defense with fighter jets operating in a missile defense mode. IDF video released to CNN reportedly showed Israeli fighter jets intercepting or "knocking down" Iranian ballistic missiles, something which while not surprising, suggests new tactical uses of advanced fighter jet sensors and weapons. "Photos released by the Israeli Air Force early Sunday showed F-35 and F-15 fighter jets returning to their bases in Israel after what were called successful “interceptions” and “aerial defense missions,” a CNN essay writes [https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/14/middleeast/israel-air-missile-defense-iran-attack-intl-hnk-ml/index.html]. F-35 Adir It appears the Israeli Defense Forces may have not only made successful use of Iron Dome and Patriot, but also appears to have used fighter jets to track and "knock out" incoming ballistic missiles. It is likely that the IDF may have used its F-35I Adir variant, its own specialized Joint Strike Fighter supplemented with some indigenous Israeli technologies, electronics and avionics. The range and fidelity of F-35 sensors might be well positioned to identify and "destroy" Iranian ballistic missiles in flight at safer standoff ranges before they could land on Israeli territory. The F-35 is armed with drone-like air-to-air and air-to-ground sensing sufficient to see, track and destroy ballistic missiles from operationally advantageous locations in the sky. Sensing is the key, as in US Air Force wargames such as Red Flag, the F-35 has shown an ability to track and destroy large numbers of 4th-generation aircraft from standoff ranges where it is itself not detected. Such a technological attribute, made possible by the F-35s Distributed Aperture System 360-degree sensors and Electro-Optical Targeting System, likely enabled the F-35 to track and intercept Iranian missiles from safe stand-off distances in the air. What weapons might an F-35 have used? The F-35 is armed with a wide range of air-to-air weapons potentially sufficient to destroy an Iranian ballistic missile, such as an AIM-9X Sidewinder or AIM-120D. It is also possible that non-kinetic solutions such as EW were used to "jam" Iranian missiles and throw them off course, effectively blinding them. The F-35A now operates with a BAE-built AN/ASQ-239 EW [http://baesystems.com/en-us/product/an-asq-239-f-35-ew-countermeasure-system] system, which its developers say introduces 360-degree detection, greater ranges and signal fidelity, and advanced countermeasures. Advanced EW systems are able to simultaneously operate on or even jam a number of different frequencies, accurately discern threats and signals, and enable key countermeasures such as frequency hopping. The Iranian strategy may have been an effort to simply “overwhelm” and destroy Israeli air defenses, equipment storage facilities and command and control with a massive surprise “bolt-out-of-the-blue” ballistic missile attack. F-35 Warrior Recently Visited F-35 Flight Line To Talk to Pilots Iranian Ballistic Missile Arsenal However, it appears the Israeli Defense Forces may have not only made successful use of Iron Dome and Patriot, but also appears to have used F-35I Adir fighter jets to track and "knock out" incoming ballistic missiles. An examination of Iran’s large ballistic missile arsenal with a mind to guidance and range can help illuminate the nature of the threat Israel, as Iran appears to now operate at least five different long-range ballistic missiles capable of hitting Israel from Iran. It's not surprising that Iran's missiles were able to reach Israel. Maps of the Middle East show Iranian missiles are easily able to hit Jerusalem and other parts of Israel from locations throughout Iran, as Jerusalem is less than 2,000km from Tehran. This means some ballistic missiles launched from Iran’s capital can hit Israel and an even higher number of long-range weapons can easily hit Israel from other locations within Western Iran. An interesting and quite significant research paper from Iran Watch shows that indeed Iran does possess a massive arsenal of ballistic missiles, at least five of which can reportedly travel distances of 1,300km or more. The famous Shahab-3, for instance, is listed by Iran Watch as capable of traveling 1,300km with a 1,000kg warhead. The liquid fuel, single stage Shahab-3 rocket is now deployed and exists in large numbers. The longest range ballistic missile listed by Iran Watch is the Khorramshahr 1,2, and 4 .. weapons cited as able to travel as far as 2,000 to 3,000km. This means the missile could hit anywhere in Israel from Tehran or most places throughout Central and Western Iran. Other Iranian Medium Range Ballistic Missiles capable of traveling 1,600km or more are the now-deployed Ghadr, Emad and Paveh missiles, according to Iran Watch. The Iranian Sejjil MRBM can travel 2,000km as well. By any estimation, this means Iranian ballistic missiles are capable of some kind of massive conventional “bolt-out-of-the-blue” attack. This seems to be what Iran appears to have attempted, meaning it fired a massive salvo of ballistic missiles intended overload Israel's missile defense systems such as its Iron Dome and Patriot. The Iranian strategy, therefore, may have been an effort to simply “overwhelm” and destroy Israeli air defenses, equipment storage facilities and command and control with a massive surprise “bolt-out-of-the-blue” ballistic missile attack. IDF F-35I Adir Unlike all of the other F-35 allied nations [https://www.forces.net/news/f-35-which-countries-use-aircraft] who now operate or are acquiring F-35As, Israel has made special efforts to engineer its own indigenously-produced weapons and technology into its F-35s. Israel’s Adir, for example, flies with domestically-produced guided bombs and air-to-air missiles in the internal weapons bays, according to a report from Aviation Week [https://aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=defense&id=news/awst/2010/08/23/AW_08_23_2010_p32-249396.xml], as far back as 2010. SPECIAL F-35 VARIANT There are several possible reasons for this, as the U.S. and allied-produced F-35 is certainly engineered with a cutting-edge, capable suite of EW weaponry. Perhaps there are some proprietary Israeli-based EW technologies that inspired the Israeli Air Force to integrate its own system and weaponry.A tailored EW system might make sense for Israel, given the nature of the threats it might be likely to face. For example, many of Israel’s regional threats such as Iran or militant groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah would of course not present an air threat to Israel in terms of aircraft. An F-35-armed [https://warriormaven.com/air/5th-gen-air-war-f-35-vs-chinese-j-20-j-31-and-russian-su-57] Israeli Air Force would not need to fight for air supremacy against regional threats, however, it would likely benefit greatly from advanced EW sufficient to jam the electronics and guidance systems of any ground-fired anti-aircraft weapons. Frequency hopping is an interesting technology wherein an EW system is engineered to essentially “counter” a countermeasure. For instance, perhaps an EW signal or RF-reliant weapons guidance system is jammed or attacked by an enemy, frequency hopping would enable the offensive EW systems to continue to operate by “hopping” to another frequency to avoid interference. Israel likely has its own adaptations of advanced EW technology tailored to the kinds of threats they expect in the region such as Iranian air defenses or electronic guidance systems used in weapons fired by Israel’s regional adversaries. Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven - Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
