Untitled By Kris Osborn, President, Warrior As Israeli tanks mass along border regions near Lebanon and Israeli Defense Forces fire ground rockets and artillery into Lebanese territory, a larger ground invasion appears imminent. Many are likely to wonder what kind of defenses Hezbollah might present .. and what a ground war might involve? How will IDF heavy armor and Merkava tanks perform against Hezbollah fighters and weapons? Clearly the IDF operates with air superiority, and an air-ground kind of attack using fighter jets and ground artillery are likely to “soften-up” or “prepare” the terrain in Southern Lebanon for an Israeli ground incursion, so it would seem the IDF may have little difficulty occupying territory. Should sufficient areas of Southern Lebanon be “cleared” or determined less risky by advanced ISR, Merkava tanks could very well be used to invade Lebanon. Hezbollah is well known to have large numbers of Anti-Tank-Guided Missiles, RPGs and rockets, an arsenal which has likely been massively upgraded and expanded since previous substantial Israeli-Hamas military confrontations roughly 10-to-15 years ago during the Israeli-Hezbollah 2006 war. Hezbollah is likely now armed with a new generation of longer-range, precision-guided ATGMs, RPGs or other Iranian-provided anti-armor weapons, the kinds of munitions which had some success against Israeli tanks and armored vehicles years ago. Hezbollah is known historically for what, years ago, was referred to as a kind of “cutting-edge” Hybrid type warfare combining historic terrorist tactics with various kinds of conventional attacks and advanced weaponry. Certainly the Israeli Defense Forces are likely to have closely examined the threat equation regarding anti-armor weapons relative to any possible ground invasion, given Ukraine’s success with anti-armor weapons and Hezbollah’s known combat history. However, should advanced IDF Merkava tanks enter Lebanon, what are some of the threats and variables likely to define the experience? Could IDF Merkava tanks survive Hezbollah RPG and ATGM attacks? This is clearly a critical question likely being entertained by IDF commanders at the moment. For many years now, Hezbollah is known to have acquired large numbers of small arms and sniper rifles from Russia and Iran, but also had accumulated a formidable arsenal of anti-armor weapons such as SA-7s and RPG-29s, grenades and anti-tank-guided missiles, according to a 2009 essay called “Back to Basics” written by the US Army Combined Arms Center, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. [https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/Primer-on-Urban-Operation/Documents/Back-to-Basics.pdf] Given the state of commercial technology and weapons proliferation, Hezbollah is now likely to be armed with ATGMs with a higher-level of precision than may have been the case at the time of the study. The most essential variable, it would seem, relates to the extent to which fortified Hezbollah positions have already been found and destroyed from the air. How many dismounted groups of ATGM-armed Hezbollah fighters have been found and killed? How many weapons caches have been attacked by IDF forces? To what extent will newer ISR in the form of drones, longer-range-high-fidelity EO/IR sensors succeed in finding and destroying dug-in, well-armed Hezbollah fighters who have likely been preparing for this kind of IDF attack for years. The answers to these questions, to the extent they can be known, are likely difficult to fully discern and will likely determine the pace, size and character of any larger-scale IDF invasion. Yet another variable is the extent to which Hezbollah fighters are or will be tactically adept? Will they rival Ukrainians with successful ambush-style, dismounted and dispersed anti-armor attacks? Certainly the IDF is likely to perform much better than the invading Russian Army, however the Hezbollah threat is likely being taken seriously by IDF commanders. Perhaps the most impactful variable could be seen in the realm of ISR, as hand-launched, high-tech, drones have massively evolved since 2009, something which could give Hezbollah an increased ability to “see” IDF forces attacking even if they do not have an aerial presence. This reality could also help the IDF as well, as it could help them see “exposed” Hezbollah fighter locations or detect “sudden movement” among Hezbollah fighters giving away their position. Medium altitude IDF ISR, coupled with surveillance planes or even F-35i Adir targeting sensors, would also likely give IDF attackers an advantage. IDF Merkava vs Hezbollah How might a mechanized IDF invasion perform against Hezbollah? The condensed and heavily populated areas of Southern Lebanon are likely to present tactical and logistical challenges for IDF forces looking to advance. The most important attribute of the high-tech Merkava would likely be its Trophy Active Protection system, top-down attack defenses and anti-drone and helicopter weapons. The Israeli Merkava, is reported to operate top-attack missiles not present on most modern tanks. This is extremely critical, given the top-down anti-tank attack success the Ukrainians experienced. Urban areas South of Beruit will unquestionably offer a large number of “elevated” positions from which to attack incoming armored formations. The Merkava functions as both a tank and infantry carrier, equipped with a 120-mm cannon and advanced Trophy Active Protection System. While it may not be clear if Trophy is a hemispheric system able to track and destroy threats coming from above. Regardless, the tank is reported to operate with both APS and an ability to attack elevated targets from above. Much like other APS systems, Trophy likely works with advanced computing, sensor detection and fire-control technology capable of finding, tracking and intercepting or destroying incoming ATGMs and RPGs. Also of significance, the Merkava fires heavier anti-tank missiles from its main gun tube and has a target reach of much longer range than most tanks. As a result, it can outrange or destroy most if not all Soviet-era tanks. While there may not be a mechanized armored threat [https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/f-22s-go-war-against-gulf-war-famous-f-117-nighthawks-wargame-190338]from its immediate surroundings requiring something like the Merkava to be ready for major warfare engagement in larger numbers, there are some significant ways that it can function as a deterrent against a potential aggressor.. The Merkava would likely prove essential to Israel if it needed to seize or acquire territory [https://breakingdefense.com/2021/07/really-big-deal-as-army-awards-bradley-replacement-contracts-ofmv/] in an engagement with Hezbollah. The main battle tank would allow Israel to breach defenses and advance forward as a heavy firepower node, depending upon the anti-armor ATGM threat. Much like an advanced Abrams tank, the Merkava has anti-armor and anti-tank weapons capable of striking enemy armored vehicles at long distances before it is even seen. Also, the Merkava brings a unique anti-personnel of fragmentation possibility to increase lethality in attacks against fast-moving small “groups” of enemy fighters. The Merkava is also armed with a 60-millimeter light mortar that can be fired from within the turret. This allows a Merkava to drop anti-personnel shells on out-of-sight targets behind a wall or on the other side of a hill. Also, the tank provides its crew with additional ways to engage the enemy without resorting to the overwhelming blasts of its main gun, an important consideration in counter-insurgency. By operating as both a heavy tank [https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/pentagon-blitzes-pacific-massive-f-22-deployment-guam-190334]and infantry carrier, the Merkava could potentially achieve an unprecedented speed of attack by breaking enemy defenses and sending infantry forward to advance.Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization and the Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics& Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
