By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization (Washington DC) China’s growing fleet of attack and nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines is shrouded in a haze of mystery to a large extent, given the lack of available detail about their technologies and performance parameters. PLAN OF SUBMARINE ATTACK What is known is that the People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLAN) has been deploying its newest attack submarine around Taiwan [https://news.usni.org/2023/06/07/taiwans-navy-caught-between-two-strategies-to-counter-chinese-threat] for military exercises, the most recent one taking place during U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island [https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-china-beijing-congress-8857910a1e44cefa70bc4dfd184ef880], according to an August, 2022 report in “The Mirror.” [https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/china-patrols-sea-taiwan-newest-27749497] Very little information seems available about China’s new Type-039C Yuan submarines, yet it does seem apparent that the PRC is working intensely to challenge U.S. Navy undersea superiority, according to multiple Pentagon reports in recent years. In 2021, the Pentagon’s annual China military report stated that, at that time, China operated six Jin-class SSBNs [https://navyrecognition.com/index.php/news/defence-news/2020/may-2020/8344-chinese-navy-has-now-six-type-094a-jin-class-nuclear-powered-ballistic-missile-submarines.html], or nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines, armed with JL-2 missiles, yet the People’s Liberation Army is preparing to produce a far more lethal, longer-range JL-3 [https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2023-05/news/china-deploys-new-submarine-launched-ballistic-missiles] nuclear armed ballistic missile variant. “As the PRC fields newer, more capable, and longer ranged SLBMs such as the JL-3, the PLAN will gain the ability to target the continental United States from littoral waters, and thus may consider bastion operations to enhance the survivability of its sea-based deterrent,” DoD’s 2021 “Report on Military and Security Developments involving the People’s Republic of China” [https://media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/2002885874/-1/-1/0/2021-CMPR-FINAL.PDF]states. Unlike the JL-2 which fires at more limited ranges, the now-in-development JL-3 will reportedly operate with an ability to travel as far as 5,600 miles. This means Jin-class submarines will not need to operate closer to shore to hold the continental U.S. at risk. “The current range limitations of the JL-2 will require the JIN to operate in areas north and east of Hawaii if the PRC seeks to target the east coast of the United States,” the Pentagon report states. The JL-3 changes this substantially. The PRC now operates six JIN SSBNs, equipped to carry up to 12 JL-2 missiles, yet the range of these weapons restricts or limits the operational envelope, should the boat seek to hold specific high-value U.S. targets at risk. This means Chinese commanders have less geographical flexibility and might operate with a higher chance of being detected. COMPETITIVE RANGE This range extension with the JL-3 is quite significant because, should its reported range of 5,600 miles be accurate, the newer Chinese submarine-launched nuclear missiles may outrange the U.S. Trident II D5s [https://nuke.fas.org/guide/usa/slbm/d-5.htm], reported to operate at ranges up to 4,000 miles. A quick look at a map shows inland portions of mainland China as being roughly 10,000 km or so from the California coast. Simply looking at the math, the JL-3 missiles will likely bring an ability for Chinese nuclear-armed submarines to attack California or other parts of the U.S. from almost anywhere in the Pacific Ocean. Capt. Scot Searles, Program Manager, Unmanned Maritime Systems, Naval Sea Systems Command Could Chinese submarine-fired nuclear-armed ballistic missiles outgun or outrange their U.S. equivalents? That may likely remain an open question given that the Pentagon’s life extension plan upgrades to the Trident II D5 increase reliability and performance. Furthermore, the U.S. plans to operate as many as 12 new nuclear-missile-armed Columbia-class submarines [https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/07/the-u-s-navys-new-supersized-columbia-class-submarines-are-built-to-make-russia-sweat/]. This clearly expands the geographical scope of where they can quietly and secretly operate to hold major high-interest targets at risk. JIn-class vs. Columbia class While little is known about the exact technological make-up of the emerging Chinese Jin-class SSBN, it might not rival the emerging U.S. Columbia-class submarine. After all, the new, now-in-development Columbia class may be the quietest undersea boat ever to exist. It uses a quiet, efficient electric-drive and a differently configured X-shaped stern, among other technologies. What is known about the Chinese Jin-class is that it will be armed with the extremely lethal, 5,600-mile range nuclear-armed ballistic JL-3 missiles, according to a May 2020 Congressional Research Service Report [https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6927913/China-Naval-Modernization-Implications-for-U-S.pdf] called “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities.” Moreover, a 2018 CSIS report [https://missilethreat.csis.org/china-flight-tests-new-jl-3-slbm/] states the Chinese have already test-fired the weapon which, by any estimation, could easily hold the continental U.S. at great risk. The Columbia class is to be equipped with an electric-drive propulsion train [https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/navys-columbia-class-ballistic-missile-submarine-has-very-special-propulsion-system-33766], as opposed to the mechanical-drive propulsion train used on other Navy submarines.In today’s Ohio-class submarines, a reactor plant generates heat which creates steam, Navy officials explained. The steam then turns the turbines that produce the sub’s electricity and also propels the ship forward. This propulsion is achieved through “reduction gears” which are able to translate the high-speed energy from a turbine into the shaft RPMs needed to move a boat propeller.“The electric-drive system is expected to be quieter (i.e., stealthier) than a mechanical-drive system,” a Congressional Research Service report on Columbia-Class submarines from last year states. The submarines are designed to be 560-feet long and house sixteen Trident II D5 missiles fired from 44-foot-long missile tubes. The “X”-shaped stern will restore maneuverability to submarines; as submarine designs progressed from using a propeller to using a propulsor to improve quieting, submarines lost some surface maneuverability, Navy officials explained. Navy developers explain that electric-drive propulsion technology still relies on a nuclear reactor to generate heat and create steam to power turbines. However, the electricity produced is transferred to an electric motor rather than so-called reduction gears to spin the boat’s propellers. The use of an electric motor brings other advantages as well, according to an MIT essay written years ago when the electric drive was being evaluated for submarine propulsion. Using an electric motor optimizes https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/navys-next-submarine-going-redefine-word-stealth-94896the use of installed reactor power in a more efficient way compared with mechanical drives, making more on-board power available for other uses, according to an essay called “Evaluation and Comparison of Electric Propulsion Motors for Submarines.” Author Joel Harbour says that on mechanical drive submarine, 80-percent of the total reactor power is used exclusively for propulsion. “With an electric drive submarine, the installed reactor power of the submarine is first converted into electrical power and then delivered to an electric propulsion motor. The now available electrical potential not being used for propulsion could easily be tapped into for other uses,” he writes. Research, science and technology work and the initial missile tube construction on Columbia-Class submarines have been underway for several years. One key exercise, called tube-and-hull forging, involves building four-packs of missile tubes to assess welding and construction methods. These structures are intended to load into the boat’s modules as construction advances. The Columbia class also incorporates a number of technologies specifically developed for the Block III Virginia-class attack https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-us-navys-virginia-class-submarines-keep-getting-better-160031submarines, such as a computer-driven joystick navigation system, fly-by-wire technology and fiber-optic periscope technology. The automated navigation enables the submarine to automatically set depth and speed, while allowing a human operator to remain in a command and control role. Trident II D5 The submarine-launched, nuclear armed Trident II D5 ballistic missile will live to fight another day...many days in fact … as the Pentagon [https://defensemaven.io/warriormaven/sea/navy-plans-to-double-number-of-amphibious-assault-ships-by-2050-UY8-tNAVgEWqcBGcw6-HYw] is now finalizing a Life-Extension Program for the weapon which will ensure its reliability and use well into the 2040s. “The W76-1 LEP was completed under budget and ahead of schedule, strengthening the Nation’s safety and security by extending the warhead’s service life from 20 years to 60 years,” The Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration 2021 Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan – Biennial Plan Summary [https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2020/12/f82/FY2021_SSMP.pdf]stated. In service for decades, often tested and repeatedly upgraded, the three-stage Trident II D5 ballistic missile [https://defensemaven.io/warriormaven/sea/massive-surge-navy-plans-increase-in-attack-submarines-from-54-to-72-by-2045-Wwod1IhWqEKVSjP1-mOHvQ] can travel a nominal range of 4,000 nautical miles and carry multiple independently targeted reentry bodies, according to Navy and Lockheed information. In recent years, the Navy has been working with Lockheed on a number of key technical upgrades to both modernize [https://defensemaven.io/warriormaven/sea/new-navy-maritime-strategy-preps-special-ops-for-massive-great-power-warfare-j-RgZmYmyEKIMASRjI85pA] and sustain the nuclear weapon. Some of these are ongoing, and others have made sufficient progress, laying the foundation [https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-russia-arming-submarine-mach-8-tsirkon-missiles-175478] for next-stage sustainment efforts, Navy officials have told The National Interest. These have included work on the weapon’s electronic modules and refinements of the missile’s Mk-6 guidance system. Hans Kristensen, Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, told Warrior as far back as several years ago that the D5LE variant increases precision and targeting by using two stars for navigation - instead of one. “This provides more flexibility with regard to the submarine’s precise position.” At some point in the coming decades, the Trident II D5 will need to be replaced with a new weapon, yet this service extension [https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/odin-computer-system-can-fix-f-35-fighter-175382] program for the existing missile will help afford developers the necessary time and developmental trajectory to explore the question. Certainly the aim is to ensure that a credible, potentially catastrophic, second strike threat [https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russias-tsirkon-missile-hypersonic-monster-america-cant-match-175479]exists to prevent any kind of major nuclear attack on the U.S. U.S. Navy ballistic missile submarines, armed with Tridents, quietly and secretly patrol the dark depths of the undersea to hold potential adversaries at risk, operating within potential striking [https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-lockheed-keeps-building-f-35-stealth-fighters-during-coronavirus-175378] range of high-threat targets such as major cities to guarantee a massively destructive response in the event of nuclear attack. Kris Osborn [https://warriormaven.com/author/krisosborn] is the Military Affairs Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
