By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization (Washington DC) Does America Really Need the B-21 Raider? The Russian state-backed media has for several years been claiming its advanced air defenses [https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/04/a-threat-to-the-u-s-military-will-russia-sell-its-s-400-air-defense-to-iran/] can track and destroy stealth aircraft [https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/the-s-400-myth-why-russias-air-defense-prowess-is-exaggerated/], due to advanced computer processing, digital networking, and high-fidelity, longer-range radar systems [https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/04/russias-s-500-how-putin-plans-to-kill-the-f-22-and-f-35/]. RUSSIAN S-400 AND S-500S The Russian S-400s [https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/02/is-russias-s-400-air-defense-system-really-so-dangerous-afterall/] and S-500s [https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/09/meet-the-s-500-russia-wants-to-make-sure-it-can-kill-f-35-and-f-22-fighters/], for example, reportedly reach longer ranges and detect aircraft on a wider range of frequencies, however, the ability to establish a moving target “track” and succeed in actually “hitting” or destroying a stealth aircraft is quite different than merely detecting that something is “there.” Therefore, if advanced air defenses be able to see “stealth” aircraft such as bombers, does that make new platforms like the B-21 [https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/05/b-21-raider-unveiling-a-message-to-china-and-russia-you-bet-it-was/] obsolete upon arrival? The clear answer to this is likely no, for several reasons. Aircraft like the B-21 are engineered to elude lower frequency surveillance radar which can determine if something is “there” or “in the area” as well as high-frequency engagement or targeting radar able to establish and maintain a target “track” on a stealth aircraft [https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/04/a-world-without-the-f-35-would-be-dangerous/]. Finally, even if some kind of “track” is established, successfully “engaging” or destroying a target is entirely different and much more difficult. Congress Addresses Chinese Theft of US Military Technology & Tactics B-21 As the world prepares to witness the dramatic and much anticipated unveiling of the new Air Force B-21 Raider Stealth bomber, there is indeed a widespread recognition that vast volumes of information and detail on the largely “black” program will remain an unknown mystery. Without fins, tails, and protruding shapes such as externally carried weapons, a smooth, horizontal blended wing-body B-2 or B-21 is engineered [https://warriormaven.com/air/b-2] to elude both surveillance and engagement radar by appearing like a “bird” to enemy radar. Without definable contours for electromagnetic “pings” to bounce off and deliver a rendering or clear return signal to enemy radar, platforms like the B-21 are designed to secretly arrive, target, and attack without an adversary even knowing they are there [https://warriormaven.com/air/russias-new-pak-da-stealth-bomber-trying-to-rival-us-air-force-b-21]. Although details related to the stealth properties [https://warriormaven.com/china/stealth-bomber-war-chinas-new-h-20-vs-us-air-force-b-21] of the B-21 are likely not available for security reasons, senior weapons developers have for quite some time been clear that the B-21 will be able to hold any target, anywhere in the world at any time. There may well be thermal signature management technologies, advanced radar absorbent coating materials, new aerodynamic configurations, and other stealth properties [https://warriormaven.com/air/stealthy-air-force-b-21-bomber-will-control-drones-fly-unmanned] built into the B-21 that change the paradigm of stealth capability in a defining way. Several years ago, former Air Force Materiel Command Commander Gen. Ellen Pawlikowski told me that, in an advanced threat environment, stealth is merely “one arrow in the quiver” of attack capability. This would suggest that other variables such as aircraft speed, altitude, and the use of unmanned systems can also impact the extent to which a stealth bomber is “targetable.” Many years ago, senior Air Force weapons developers made powerful comments about the B-21, saying it will fly with an ability to hold “any target in the world at risk, anywhere at any time.” Developers have also for many years been saying the new B-21 will incorporate paradigm-changing new generations of stealth technology, perhaps sufficient to elude even the most advanced Russian-built S-400 and S-500 air defenses. For many years now, the B-21 program has been praised by Air Force leaders as an extremely successful program that has been both on time and on cost, while surging stealth technology into a new era of low observability. One key reason for this, both Air Force and Northrop Grumman weapons developers explain, is due to the successful use of “digital engineering” techniques. Through digital engineering, weapons developers are able to replicate key weapons performance parameters through computer simulation, making it possible to refine, assess and develop technologies without needing to actually “bend metal” and build platforms. This streamlines the developmental process, improves the supply chain and procurement process and reduces risk in the process of manufacturing the new aircraft. The entire concept of the B-21’ [https://warriormaven.com/air/air-force-buys-145-b-21s]s broadband stealth is aimed at operating with an ability to elude both lower-frequency “surveillance” radar able to discern if an aircraft is “there,” as well as high frequency “engagement” radar able to actually develop a target track and fire upon an aircraft. The B-21 is engineered to appear like a “bird” to enemy radar and prevent an adversary from knowing the aircraft is even there. While most of the production and technological details regarding the B-21 are not available for obvious security reasons, there is widespread discussion among senior Air Force leaders about how the new platform incorporates breakthrough, paradigm-changing levels of stealth technology. This is of critical importance, given the rapid technological advances being made in the area of Russian and Chinese air defenses. Russian media claims its new S-400 and S-500 Surface-to-Air-Missiles are able to track and shoot down even “stealth” platforms, an ambitious claim which does not seem to have been verified or corroborated in any substantial way. What is known, however, is that new Russian-built air defenses are networked to one another with much faster computer processing, able to see or detect targets at much greater ranges and capable of operating on a wider range of frequencies. However, this does not mean that these systems can actually succeed in “hitting” or engaging a stealth bomber, especially an advanced one like the B-21 is reported to be. A given radar or air defense system may succeed in determining that something is “there” or in a general area of operations using low-frequency surveillance radar, however that does not mean the system can actually establish a target track on a moving stealth bomber and actually “destroy” a stealthy platform. This requires a much greater level of precision, track loop fire control and image fidelity to accomplish, and it appears there are likely many “undisclosed” stealth properties built into the B-21. Often referring to the B-21 [https://warriormaven.com/air/b-21-b-2-bombers] in the context of a “family of systems,” senior Air Force leaders have for quite some time discussed the new aircraft as expected to be capable of unmanned missions. This concept of operations could evolve in several ways, as it could involve preparations for having the B-21 [https://warriormaven.com/air/b-1b-b-2-b-52-b-21-us-air-force] fly unmanned missions itself, or operate groups of networked drones from the cockpit of the aircraft. “This initiative, similar to NGAD, identifies all of the components of the B-21 [https://warriormaven.com/air/b-21-pak-da-h-20-stealth-bombers] family of systems, including the potential use of more affordable un-crewed autonomous combat aircraft,” Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said in an Air Force report [https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2953552/kendall-details-seven-operational-imperatives-how-they-forge-the-future-force/] last year. While there is of course no substitute for the unique decision-making attributes of human cognition deemed critical to real-time dynamic adjustments amid a host of fast evolving air warfare variable, there are also unprecedented advantages to using drones in close coordination with the bomber. This kind of “loyal wingman” capability, now progressing quickly through Air Force testing and development, enables a manned crew to control the flight path and sensor payload from the cockpit of the aircraft. This not only allows manned crews to operate at a safer stand-off range but also enables operation of a forward “node” or sensor platform from which to conduct surveillance, test enemy air defenses or even drop weapons when directed by a human. Air Force Breaksthrough with manned-unmanned teaming Through programs such as the Air Force’s Valkyrie drone, the service has already demonstrated the ability of an F-35 [https://warriormaven.com/china/china-j20-us-f35] or F-22 [https://warriormaven.com/air/china-j-20-f-22-f-35] to fly alongside of and operate drones such as the Valkyrie. This greatly reduces latency by avoiding a need to route time-sensitive surveillance and targeting data through a ground station. B-21 [https://warriormaven.com/air/h-20-b-21] manned-unmanned teaming also introduces a wide range of new tactical possibilities, to include an ability to deliver a much larger weapons payload, increase dwell time over target areas and conduct attacks over a wider envelope or engagement area. Armed drones could also be directed to fire upon and “jam” enemy air defenses with EW or even drop weapons when directed by a manned B-21 [https://warriormaven.com/air/b-21-image] operating in the role of command and control. Unmanned systems could also incorporate what Kendall called “attributable,” lower cost mission systems. “They (drones and unmanned systems) could deliver a range of sensors, other mission payloads, and weapons, or other mission equipment and they can also be attributable or even sacrificed if doing so conferred a major operational advantage – something we would never do with a crewed platform,” Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said at an Air Force conference last year. “The technologies are there now to introduce un-crewed platforms in this system-of-systems context, but the most cost effective approach and the operational concepts for this complement to crewed global strike capabilities have to be analyzed and defined.” It is also a reasonable assumption that the B-21 will incorporate a new generation of data processing, sensing, weapons employment and AI-empowered computing. will allow pilots to make faster and more informed combat decisions. Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven - Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
