By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization There is little question that, apart from perhaps leveraging undersea superiority, any sustained deterrence against a rapid Chinese annexation of Taiwan or aggressive actions in the South China Sea likely pertain to the availability and reach of US and allied 5th-generation aircraft. A cursory look at People’s Liberation Army - Air Force aircraft would seem to suggest that the PRC would, at least at the moment, have trouble establishing any kind of air superiority in the Pacific, provided sufficient numbers of F-35 were within striking distance. While there are some options to launch land-based F-35s from Japan, Korea and eventually Singapore, the most decisive or impactful deployment of US and allied 5th-generation air power would most likely come from the sea. The massively increasing US military presence in The Philippines will likely present additional opportunities for the US to station F-35s at newly arriving US bases in the country, yet despite the realistic prospect of large-scale land deployment of F-35s, the collective US and allied ability to operate F-35s from the Sea could prove to be the most decisive element in any conflict with the PRC. Carrier Survivability Video: How Vulnerable are US Carriers to Chinese Anti-Ship Missiles The F-35 is now exploding across the Pacific with Japan’s massive $35 billion buy along with Sinaporean and South Korean F-35s. Japan has already deployed its F-35B aircraft on its warships and the US Navy’s America-class amphibious assault ships can deploy with as many as 20 F-35Bs. Perhaps of greatest impact, the US Navy can easily launch 50 or more F-35Cs from a single carrier, creating a scenario in which the US and its allies could, in effect, blanket the region with 5th-generation air power. Two-Carriers in Pacific to Five These circumstances raise the interesting question that, given the massively increasing tensions in the Pacific between an allied US, Japanese and Philippine Navy and China, it might make sense for the Navy to massively increase its deployment of carriers in the Pacific from the usual two or three all the way up to five. The idea of increasing the number of US Navy carriers deployed in the Pacific to five was suggested recently in an interesting essay from the “Center for China Analysis.” “Recent reporting suggests that the United States is likely to increase the number of its aircraft carriers deployed in the Western Pacific this year from three to five,” Lyle Morris, Senior Fellow, Center for China Analysis, writes. The reason for this seems both clear and simple, as it pertains to volume and any US-led ability to massively project air power from the sea. With 5 aircraft carriers strategically positioned across the region, a combined US and Japanese force of ocean-launched F-35s could in effect generate an aerial “wall” of 5th-Generation support encircling at-risk areas near Taiwan and the South China Sea. This possibility has likely been thrust to the forefront of Pentagon and US Navy thinking following recent large-scale escalations in tensions between an allied US-Philippine force and the PLA Navy. Philippine and U.S. navies recently held large-scale exercises in the South China Sea, a development which seemed to inspire an aggressive PLA reaction. The PLA Southern Theater Command conducted what it referred to as a “routine” patrol in the South China Sea, a development which only served to sharpen the US and Philippine focus on the China threat. Having more carriers in the region bringing an unprecedented ability to project 5th-generation airpower from the sea well within reach of Taiwan and the South China Sea, could dramatically change the deterrence equation. This is the case because, at the moment, China is only operating a few prototype J-31 sea-launched 5th-generation aircraft and has a 100-airplane strong J-20 force which is land-launched. The PRC has no sea-launched F-35B or F-35C equivalent and, although Taiwan is only 100 miles from the coast and well within reach of mainland China, the PLA would likely have a very difficult time establishing any kind of air superiority in support of an amphibious attack on Taiwan. This equation would also be massively impacted should the US choose to deploy as many as 5 carriers in the region at one time. The US Navy now regularly conducts dual-carrier war preparation drills wherein air-attack sorties are coordinated at a massive scale, doubling that kind of air-power projection capability could scale any air attack campaign to unparalleled levels not likely to be matched by any kind of PLA - Air Force formation. Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven - Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
