by Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The Pentagon is working closely with Taiwan to develop deterrence strategies and countermeasures in response to a possible Chinese blockade of the island, wherein the PRC uses its large Navy, hypersonic weapons and ballistic missiles to essentially “block” any allied forces from defending Taiwan.
Such a prospect has been on the minds of Pentagon thinkers for quite some time, and now the US Congress shares the concern and is directing the Pentagon to send a report to several Congressional committees outlining the “risks and implications” of a sustained military blockade of Taiwan by China.
“The report shall include the method China is most likely to use to impose a blockade; an identification of indications and warnings of a potential sustained blockade of Taiwan by China; and the likely timelines associated with such indications and warnings,” a report from Taiwan’s Central News Agency states. “It should also include an assessment of the impact of such a blockade on the ability of Taiwan to sustain its self-defense capabilities, economy, and population.”
Military Dimensions to a Blockade
A large-scaled PLA Navy surface warship formation could present significant obstacles for any force hoping to defend Taiwan, in large measure due to the range and nature of the sensors and weapons it operates. For instance, multiple Chinese and western news reports have discussed the PLA Navy’s successful test-launch of its deck-fired YJ-21 hypersonic weapon. Should the PLA Navy operate with a margin of superiority in the realm of hypersonics, then US Navy surface platforms may indeed be challenged to breakthrough a PRC perimeter. Should China have an advantage in the area of hypersonic weapons, some Pentagon observers have expressed concern that the PRC might wish to move quickly to exploit this deficit while there is one. The US Is quickly closing the gap by developing its own hypersonic missiles and plans to have surface destroyers armed with hypersonic weapons in just the next few years.
The PLA Navy would likely employ its emerging fleet of newer surface warships to include its growing fleet of Type-055 quasi-stealthy, high-tech destroyers, Type-075 amphibious assault ships and aircraft carriers. The PLA-Navy is already making progress with its third carrier and has demonstrated “dual-carrier” operations in the Pacific wherein the PLAN seeks to emulate or copy the well-established US Navy ability to coordinate a massive air-attack campaign from two aircraft carriers networked to one another.
Challenges of a Blockade – Air & Undersea
While the implementation of a blockade essentially “walling” off Taiwan from foreign defenders may seem both feasible and well advised as a strategy to annex the island, the PRC is operating at what might be a lesser recognized, yet critical deficit in the area of air power. Although China may operate a formidable surface Navy and arsenal of ballistic missiles, the PRC has little to no sea-launched 5th-generation air support. Any blockade would be extremely difficult to maintain without air supremacy or an ability to slow down or prevent the US and its allies from contesting and dominating the airspace. The US Navy, for example, can operate as many as 20 F-35Bs in a single America-class amphibious assault ship, and China has no equivalent. A US Navy carrier can launch and operate large numbers of F-35Cs as well, and Japan, South Korea and Singapore are all F-35 partners as well. China operate several prototypes of its J-31 5th-generation carrier-launched stealth fighter, yet they are not operational in any impactful capacity. China does have a land-based force of J-20s, its 5th-generation stealth aircraft, yet without sea-launch ability these aircraft could be challenged to sustain operations in a maritime environment, and there are questions as to the J-20s true ability to rival the F-35 or F-22.
In a simple sense, this amounts to a scenario wherein a massive Chinese naval blockade would likely be extremely vulnerable to US and allied 5th-generation air power, a dynamic which might make a PRC Naval blockade much less capable of thwarting US and allied 5ht-generation capability to penetrate any blockade perimeter in the air. Surface Chinese warships would be extremely vulnerable to US amphib and carrier-launched F-35s.
The other mysterious “x-factor” in this equation pertains to the realm of the undersea as well, because should the US Navy operate with undersea superiority, then quiet, lethal Virginia-class attack submarines could destroy a Chinese warship blockade from beneath the surface. Advanced Block III and beyond Virginia-class submarines are armed with a Large Aperture Bow sonar and a series of quieting technologies designed to make them less detectable. Torpedoes fired from attack submarines could potentially hold Chinese warships at great risk as well.
Kris Osborn is President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
