by Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The Pentagon’s evolving “Replicator” program introduces some interesting concepts of operation intended to add new dimensions to deterrence and combat operations such as area denial, electronic shields and new autonomous aerial maneuvers.
By launching massive amounts of coordinated, yet attributable unmanned systems enabled by breakthrough levels of autonomy, air and ground units can adopt newer maneuver formations, increase speed with AI, introduce new tactics and leverage emerging technology.
A major “intent” for replicator, as confirmed by Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, is to field thousands of new low-cost, attributable drones within two-years.
Pentagon statements on Replicator explain the objective in terms of creating “the ability of U.S. and allied forces to control mass numbers of systems simultaneously. Autonomy allows a single operator to control multiple vehicles and operate at scale.”
Drone swarms can of course build in redundancy to surveillance by blanketing an area with large numbers of sensors, testing or penetrating enemy air defense systems with sheer volume or even operating as jammers or EW screens protecting larger platforms communications systems, guidance and radar. This is potentially quite significant, as any adversary is expected to attempt to “jam” or interfere with radar and communication systems, therefore having an electronic “shield” of some kind generated by sheer “mass” and “volume” could have a critical suppressive impact on enemy jamming efforts.
“Without the need for a control link from operators, the Replicator systems can survive and continue to operate even under heavy jamming, all while U.S. forces deploying them can minimize their vulnerability to detection,” a Pentagon essay states.
Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks explained “Replicator” in terms of “creating dilemmas” for an enemy, according to a Pentagon transcript of her speech in August of 23.
“Our goal here is an operational goal, which is, in addition to the acquisition cycle, and that operational goal is to create dilemmas for China and any other competitor who might look at this approach and try to undermine it,” Hicks stated, according to a Pentagon transcript.
Beyond this, emerging technologies in the areas of AI, networking and “collaborative” operations are bringing new tactics and concepts of operation. For example, the Navy’s “Ghost Fleet” program demonstrates that it is increasingly possible for groups of unmanned systems to operate in coordination with one another, enabling a kind of unmanned-unmanned teaming. For instance, should one node discover a target or item of relevance, it is increasingly able to transmit to other nodes and adjust autonomously to new information during a mission without needing human intervention. Perhaps one Unmanned Surface Vehicle drone could detect a weak point in the perimeter of enemy coastal defenses and transmit critical intelligence to other unmanned systems capable of adjusting course and responding to new information.
This technology has been evolving for many years through various Pentagon science and technology efforts such as “bio-memetics,” described by DoD scientists as efforts to develop algorithms capable of replicating natural swarming behaviors. One senior Pentagon scientist explained to Warrior years ago that computer experts were working to develop algorithms enabling drone swarms to coordinate in ways that a swarm of birds or bees might operate. For instance, one Pentagon scientist asked “how does a flock of birds fly so closely and maneuver without ever colliding into each other?”
The Pentagon is working intensely to support and fast-track production of this high-volume of unmanned systems by encouraging private investment and a two-year manufacturing cycle. The idea with Replicator, as Hicks explained, is to “leverage platforms that are small, smart, cheap, and many.”
Kris Osborn is President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
