By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The question of a possible US military ICBM “missile gap” is beginning to re-emerge amid potential delays in the delivery and deployment of the new Sentinel ICBM.
The principle concern on the part of senior Air Force leaders and weapons developers is that the existing 1960s-era Minuteman III may not remain operations for the remainder of the decade, and the new Sentinel ICBM is slated to arrive at the end of the 2020s. The question is clear, what if the Minuteman III can no longer operate and the Sentinel has not yet arrived? The US strategic nuclear deterrence triad would be operating at a very dangerous deficit, a scenario presenting extreme vulnerability for the US Homeland,
The Pentagon plans to acquire as many as 650 Sentinels to operate alongside of and then ultimately replace the Minuteman III. An Essay in Arms Control Today says the Air Force allocated $3.7 billion for R&D for Sentinel and $539 million for procurement. In April, the Defense Department began to solicit proposals for a new reentry vehicle to carry the nuclear warhead for the Sentinel missiles.
Overall, the Sentinel program has been a fast-tracked success story which not only performed well in testing but massively shortened its developmental timeline through the successful use of digital engineering. The arrival time or deployment plan has been from 2028 to 2030, and leaders weapons developers and members of Congress are worried the arrival could slide even more.
Several years ago, Air Force leaders and weapons developers said the Sentinel was “on-track” for delivery and that the Minuteman III continues to function with extensive upgrades. This Air Force thinking, at least as of several years ago, had been that a “gap” in capability is not anticipated.
Has this changed now? Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall did express concern about the Schedule for Sentinel earlier this year and members of Congress are vocalizing very significant concerns about the faltering performance of the Minuteman III.
Congressional Concern
Following a recent test complication with the Minuteman III, U.S. Representative Mike Rogers (R-AL), Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee published a statement saying the Sentinel must be fast-tracked and stay on course for US National Security.
“Minuteman III was initially designed in the 1960s and deployed in the 1970s, with an expected service life of a decade. It has served our country well and we will continue to depend on it to deter nuclear war until the 2030s, but this week’s test is a stark reminder that nothing lasts forever… Rogers said.
“Further life extension (of the Minuteman III) is simply infeasible, and 50-year-old missiles are not the answer to China and Russia’s expanding nuclear arsenals. We must modernize our aging nuclear deterrent and replace the Minuteman III missile – as well as the rest of our nuclear enterprise – with modern systems.”
Northrop Grumman Progress
The Sentinel maker Northrop Grumman, the industry partner supporting Hunter and the Air Force, told Warrior last year that they were making substantial progress working with the Air Force to develop the weapon. Northrop is planning a “Live-Shot’ fire for the weapon in 2024
“The team has made a lot of progress since we were awarded in September of 2020. A lot of design work is going on. We are about the enter reviews of the critical designs we have been working on over the past two year. We are building hardware we have the first couple stages of the motors cast which means the propellant has been poured into the motor. Eventually we will start firing off motors, first on the ground and then eventually get toward the first flight of the missile in 2024,” Frank Demauro, Vice President of Strategic Deterrence, Northrop Grumman, told Warrior in an interview at the 2022 AFA Symposium “The test launch will be in fiscal year 2024. Ahead of that we actually fire off the different stages on the ground to make sure we are getting the performance out of them before we actually put a missile together.”
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
