By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
There have been no Russian amphibious assaults from the Black Sea since the opening days of the war when Russia launched an amphibious attack on Odessa, and the Russian Navy has largely remained neutralized or rendered ineffective by Ukrainian land-launched missiles.
One interesting and potentially lesser recognized element of this likely relates to some of the unmanned surface vehicles the Pentagon has sent to Ukraine to help deter, target or surveil Russian Naval assets off of the coast. Ukraine’s border with the Black Sea has pretty much been saved from Russian naval bombardment, and one has to think the Pentagon’s effort to send drone boats has been having a large impact. The Pentagon’s recent support package to Ukraine includes drone boats along with manned patrol boats and land-fired coastal defense weapons such as harpoons and anti-ship missiles.
Sure enough, the most recent Ukraine security package contains Unmanned Coastal Defenses Vessels, surface drones likely tasked with a wide range of surveillance and targeting missions. Ukrainian coastal-launched anti-ship missiles have reportedly hit Russian warships and there have not been any follow-on amphibious attacks since the opening days of the war.
It is not clear how many unmanned boats are being sent to Ukraine or what exactly their mission scope might be, however it would indeed make sense given the technological maturity of US Navy Unmanned Surface Vehicles which are increasingly able to conduct surveillance, target enemy ships, search for mines and network with one another in support of a fleet of manned ships. Specifics regarding Ukrainian tactics, weapons technologies and concepts of operation are likely not available for security reasons, yet the existence and arrival of these weapons introduce a number of significant possibilities and the Pentagon has of course discussed and published the platforms it is sending.
It may be that Russian ships simply cannot operate within firing range of Ukrainian coastal weapons given that unmanned systems can easily operate as targeting “nodes” on the ocean locating and destroying Russian warships. Small fast-drone boats could also provide an early warning to a Russian amphibious attack from coastal waters.
Networked Drone Boats Stop Russian Navy
The effectiveness of these drone boats likely pertains to the extent to which they are successfully networked with land-based command and control and other surface, ground or aerial nodes. Should they operate with some level of autonomy and be able to process incoming sensor data and then transmit to air platforms or ground based command and control, they would be positioned to massively reduce latency and fast-track data flow to human decision makers on the coast in position to attack.
Along with the drone boats, the Pentagon is also sending as many as 62 coastal and riverine patrol boats to operate along the Black Sea coastline. This is quite significant as it raises the possibility that extensive and effective manned-unmanned teaming is taking place with the manned patrol boats and unmanned vessels on the black sea. This would massively expand the operational envelope and enable Ukrainian forces to defend their coastline with greater precision, effectiveness and range. As part of this targeting relay, it is also not surprising that the Pentagon is sending anti-ship missiles and Harpoon coastal defense weapons. The combination of these weapons and technologies being sent together seems to suggest that indeed there may be some effective networking going on in terms of Ukraine’s ability to network forward operating drone boats with manned boats and coastal weapons such as anti-ship missiles. Should these nodes be networked in a way that reduces latency and extends targeting reach, Russian warships might have little chance to operate within firing range of the Ukraine’s coastline or contemplate any kind of amphibious attack.
For the US Navy, USVs are at the heart of the service’s multi-domain maritime warfare concept of operations in which surface, air, ground and undersea combat nodes share information in real time, often with an ability to process data at the point of collection and coordinate activities in tandem with other assets. They are critical to submarine-hunting, mine-clearing and coastal surveillance and increasingly autonomous, meaning they can perform some critical functions without needing human intervention and alert surface ships or ground forces of approaching threats.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
