By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
Ukrainian pilots are moving much closer to flying attack missions against Russian air and ground forces from F-16s, as training and preparations continue prior to the expected arrival of the aircraft in Ukraine. In recent weeks, the Pentagon has decided to support Ukraine’s war against Russia by supporting the delivery of Western F-16s. Ukrainian pilot training and preparation is now going on with US allies in key parts of Europe.
“We heard from the co-leads of the F-16 Training Coalition, Denmark and the Netherlands. They continue to make progress on a cohesive training plan and to help some very eager Ukrainian pilots learn to fly fourth-generation aircraft,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters recently at the Pentagon, according to a Pentagon transcript.
Unless decisive air superiority can be established, something which might require 5th-gen stealth or large 4th-generation formations, the presence of F-16s might not have the kind of hoped-for enormous impact. The simple reason for this may simply be that Russia operates and maintains an extensive network of high-tech, advanced air defenses which might prove very difficult for non-stealthy 4th-generation aircraft to overcome.
“Ten F-16s are $2 billion, so the Russians have hundreds of fourth- and fifth-generation airframes. So if they’re going to try to match the Russians one for one, or even, you know, two-to-one, you’re talking about a large number of aircraft. That’s going to take years to train the pilots, years to do the maintenance and sustainment,” Milley said.
Certainly the Pentagon and its Ukraine-supporting allies appear committed for the long haul, and the Pentagon has already set up a contracting mechanism with which to sustain long-term weapons production for Ukraine, yet it is not yet clear if a small number of F-16s will have an immediate and decisive impact.
The answer to this likely depends upon a series of variables such as the range, fidelity and accuracy of the F-16’s radar, sensors, targeting and weapon systems. Russia does have 773 fighter jets, according to Globalfirepower.com, as compared to Ukraine’s 69. Yet, if even somewhat mysteriously, the Russian have been unable to achieve air superiority in any measurable way over any critical areas of Ukraine. Somehow, despite operating at a massive numbers deficit, Ukrainian forces have been able to marshall the resolve, tactical efficiency and mixture of air-and-ground weapons to largely neutralize Russian air attacks.
Milley seemed to recognize this stalemate in the air and explain that ground-based defenses and weapons and armored combined arms maneuver are likely to be more impactful against Russian positions than a small number of aircraft. Milley said that, at the moment, that the best way for Ukrainians to impact the airspace is through ground-to-air air defense systems.
“It’s control of the airspace, and you can do that two ways. You can do that air-to-air or you can do that from the ground to the air. The best way for the Urkainians to do that is through ground to air through air defense systems, and that’s what they’ve been provided from the beginning of this war ’til now. And that’s important, because what you want to do is protect those assault forces from Russian close-air support and/or attack-helicopter support, and they’ve got air defense systems,” Milley said.
Ukraine Counters Russian Air Force
Ukraine’s ability to withstand and even succeed against larger numbers of invading Russian forces would arguably not be possible if Russia did in fact have air superiority. Ukraine has received air defenses from the West, many of which appear to be proving extremely effective at keeping as Milley indicated.
One factor, as described by Senior Pentagon officials briefing reports on the conflict is that Russia has appeared to be “risk-averse” meaning its pilots are showing a reluctance to operate in high threat areas where Ukrainians have air defenses. Perhaps Ukraine’s air-defences are extremely effective or at least quite threatening such that larger formations of Russian aircraft have been hesitant to attack. One possible explanation for this is that Russia has been destroying Ukrainian targets and civilian neighborhoods with long-range, ground fired rockets able to travel 200 to 300 miles in some cases. This is something the Ukrainians previously had trouble stopping due to an inability to target them from the air.
However, the arrival of HIMARS and GMLRS long-range ground rockets have enabled the Ukrainians to attack Russian missile and rocket launch areas deeper within Russia.
Pentagon officials have also said that, at least thus far, Russia has only been using a portion of its aircraft, however the full, operational extent of Russia’s air fleet may be more difficult to determine, as hundreds of their 773 aircraft may not be combat ready, modernized or operational.
Russia operates upgraded 4th-generation Su-35 aircraft as well as Su-30s and Su-35s. Both the Su-34s and Su-35s are cited as “fighter aircraft” emerging as recently as 2014. The Su-34 is listed as a “fighter-bomber” with long-range strike capacity and the Su-35 is reported to be a multi-role heavy combat fighter.
Ukraine, by contrast, is reported to operate mostly 1970s and 1980s-era Soviet-built fighter jets such as the Su-24, listed as having emerged as far back as 1974. An older airframe, however, does not necessarily translate into a fighter jet with little capability.
The US has, for example, massively upgraded its 1980s-era F-15 and F/A-18 fighters with new avionics, targeting technologies, sensors and weapons. The Ukrainians have of course been receiving effective air defenses from the West, and they already have been operating a collection of Cold War era Soviet-built SAM systems, the most recent of which is the SA-15 Gauntlet from 1986. How much have these decades old systems been maintained and upgraded?
However, protecting Ukrainian skies with air defenses does not require a massive amount of actual Surface-to-Air-Missile systems, according to former Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby who told reporters a year ago that a small number of air defenses can protect almost “all of Ukraine.”
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Master’s Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
