By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The Chinese threat along the Indian border is likely sufficient to inspire the fast-growing US-India defense and weapons development collaboration, an evolving relationship which could naturally be extremely well fortified by selling the F-35 to India.
The global expansion of the F-35 community is leading many to regard the Joint Strike Fighter as a 5th-generation multi-role fighter for the “free world,” leading even more unanticipated customers to pursue the jet.
In recent years, there has been nothing short of an explosion of new F-35 customers to include Finland, Switzerland, Poland, Germany and others … So why not India? Certainly the US-Indian collaborative relationship is growing much stronger in many ways, particularly in defense. Recently, India and the US have signed several collaborative defense industry development deals to strengthen Indian compatibility and interoperability with the US and allied forces.
Deterring China
Clearly there is a need to deter China from threatening India from its Western border beyond Tibet is a danger India takes seriously, particularly in recent years given border clashes and contestested regions.
The threat from China’s Western border has only grown more significant in recent years due to China’s intense military modernization efforts. China has regularly written in its government-backed Global Times newspaper that part of its military modernization includes building vehicles, platforms and weapons systems specifically designed to fight in the plateau areas of Western China.
Countering China’s J-20
There is also a need to counter the Chinese J-20, a stealth 5th-gen, land-launched aircraft potentially in position to threaten India. An Indian F-35 might be well positioned to challenge or even destroy the Chinese J-20 in the event there is a war for air supremacy along the border region. Part of this equation would also need to consider the F-35’s sensors as its computing and long-range, high-fidelity sensing could perform critical ISR functions along the Chinese border while being in position to attack if necessary.
China’s military modernization includes the rapid addition new J-20 fifth-generation aircraft. The increasing numbers of J-20s makes it important to discern if the Chinese fighter jet is comparable to the American F-35 Lightning II.
Department of Defense reports have noted that elements of the J-20 appear to mirror or mimic attributes of the F-35 and F-22 Raptor. However, at least in the short term, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force operates far fewer J-20s than the number of F-35s planned for acquisition.
That would seem to indicate an advantage for the United States. But China’s recent production rates and capacities, especially in the area of shipbuilding, may one day extend to aircraft construction as well.
The external configuration of the J-20 appears stealthy as it incorporates a horizontal, blended-wing body exterior with a rounded, gradually sloped structure. This design is intended to generate a much lower and less detectable radar cross section. Vertical structures or protruding formations can generate a stronger return signal in response to electromagnetic pings. Interestingly, the back portion of the plane appears to mirror an F-22 more than the F-35. The plane has dual exhaust suggesting the presence of a dual-engine design. While there are likely internal engines and measures of thermal management technologies, information on coating materials, heat signature management, and engines is likely difficult to come by.
Chinese newspapers have reported that the J-20 is built with a domestically-produced WS-15 engine. More recently, Chinese papers and the Department of Defense’s 2021 report on Chinese military power cited efforts to upgrade the J-20 to rival the F-22 with supercruise ability. However, F-22 supercruise, which enables the jet to sustain supersonic speeds without afterburners, may be difficult to replicate. It is not clear that Chinese engineering can actually match the F-22 in speed and aerial maneuverability. It may not rival the F-35 in these respects either, but the verdict remains unknown
There are other unknowns when comparing the F-35 and J-20. The true difference may reside in a series of unknowns, meaning superiority would likely be determined by mission systems, weapons and targeting, computing, and sensing. Regardless of the extent to which the external configuration of the J-20 appears similar to the F-35, the J-20 may be unable to rival the F-35 in terms of computing and sensor technology. Could a J-20 even see an F-35 before it were found and targeted by an F-35? Does it operate with any kind of high-speed computing able to organize incoming sensor data to present an integrated view to pilots? Does it have AIM-9X-like off-boresight targeting technology or other weapons with advanced guidance systems? Finally, are there built-in technical standards to upgrade the J-20 to match or rival the F-35 in coming years? The F-35, which will soon field unparalleled weapons such as the Stormbreaker, is engineered with an ability to accommodate new weapons, fire control technologies, and guidance systems as they become available in coming years. The Pentagon plans to fly the F-35 for decades into the future.
The answers to many of these questions may be unknown, but it does not seem likely that a J-20 boasts all these technologies. If not, it cannot match the F-35. But if it can, the balance of power in the air may be in danger.
Indian F-35 Advantages
One of the largest advantages presented by an Indian F-35 would also be the potential for multi-domain networking, as a common Multifunction Advanced Data Link (MADL) would instantly and securely connect across a multi-national force of F-35s. Indian F-35s could connect with any ground-based US Air Force F-35As or even amphibs or carrier-launched F-35Cs and F-35Bs operating from the Indian Ocean or Bay of Bengal. This would allow India, the US and other regional allies to establish networked aerial formations across a dispersed operational envelope.
There is already a collaborative industrial effort underway between the Pentagon, Indian defense authorities and Lockheed Martin regarding the construction of a specially configured upgraded F-16 variant referred to as the F-21. Lockheed has in recent years been working to help fortify industrial base capacity in the region, a development which might make it easier to accommodate an Indian F-35. An industrial presence would prove critical when it comes to any F-35 sustainment, maintenance and upgrades which might be needed as well.
Perhaps there is concern similar to what may cause the Pentagon to pause or hesitate about the possibility of exporting the F-35 to Taiwan, as DoD might not want to provoke or challenge Chinese air superiority in the Indo-Pacific and further inflame tensions. However, when it comes to pure deterrence and the reality that China would likely hesitate to engage a formidable force of F-35s and compete for air superiority, there is a strong argument for why it might make sense to bring F-35s to India. F-35s are already present in impactful numbers in Asia due to F-35 partners such as Singapore, Japan, Australia and South Korea. F-35 threats on China’s Western border might prove extremely impactful.
An Indian F-35 would likely be engineered to network with India special F-16 variant called the F-21, a special upgraded F-16 put together specifically for India. India is now
working with Lockheed and the Pentagon to set up the industrial infrastructure to support building the plane. The F-21 incorporates a few technologies unique to India, such as Electronic Warfare weapons and something called Triple Missiles Launcher Adapters, which arm the aircraft with 40 percent more air-to-air weapons when compared with standard or previous F-16s.
The F-21’s new Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, developers explain, not only basically doubles the radar range but also draws upon recent innovations such as the Navy’s Infrared Search and Track (IRST) targeting technology. Engineered first on a Navy F/A-18, IRST is a passive, long-range sensor that can track multiple targets simultaneously in a “jamming” or electronic warfare threat environment and support precise air-to-air targeting.
A massively enhanced, upgraded, and upgunned F-16 variant such as the F-21 could introduce a much more favorable strategic circumstance for India as it seeks to deter and contain China, particularly along its border area. China has for quite some time taken specific measures to further militarize its Western plateau regions along its border with India, a kind of force posturing and strategic maneuver, which could be held at risk by a fleet of F-21s.
Chinese Western Military Build Up
Indian F-35s could prove critical to necessary efforts to defend against China’s rapid military build-up in the Western plateau regions. In what could be seen as a massive modernization push and military build-up, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) continues to plus-up its Western high-altitude plateau regions with new weapons systems.
Following announcements about mobile artillery and new armored vehicles for the region, the PLA is now announcing the deployment of new self-propelled rapid-fire mortars to conduct “mobile, hit-and-run firing positions,” according to the Chinese Global Times.
Due to the parabola-like trajectory of how they fire, mortar weapons can be particularly useful in mountainous regions as they can enable advancing forces to attack otherwise tough to reach enemy positions at higher or significantly lower altitudes. Precision, however, seems to be crucial here as the logistical burden would likely make it very difficult if not impossible to transport large amounts of mortar munitions up to higher altitudes, even if they were air-dropped by helicopters.
The paper says the self-propelled mortar system is based upon a “four-wheeled off-road assault vehicle,” something which seems to indicate a possibility for mountain warfare in the plateau regions. A large-scale combat capability and warfare technology build-up in the plateau regions of Western China continue to receive accelerated attention from the PLA. The arrival of the self-propelled mortars are the fourth new type of weapons systems the PLA is bringing to the region, an effort including the addition of a new 122-millimeter caliber self-propelled howitzer, armored assault vehicles and long-range multiple rocket launcher systems.
The Chinese Global Times notes that “PLA Xinjiang Military Command is forming a complete, modern ground combat system which is particularly of significance to plateau combat.”
Indian-Chinese tensions along the border region are well known given that they have occasionally escalated into minor skirmishes and exchanges of fire. At the same time, a large-scale, high-tech Chinese buildup near its border with India does seem a bit curious in some respects. Of course, any kind of capable land force could function as a deterrent against any kind of incursion India might be contemplating, the region’s plateaus, rigorous, uneven mountain terrain and high altitudes make it a location inhospitable to any kind of land war advance. Any kind of mechanized force or occupying army would be extremely challenged to advance through the territory, a circumstance which could only reduce the credibility of any kind of land war threat.
Given the mountains on either side of the India-China border, it seems very unlikely that either Army could substantially advance into the other country. Perhaps China sees value in mere “presence” despite the likely inability of mechanized ground forces to transit any measurable distance beyond the immediate border vicinity. However, there are numerous disputed border areas and territories spanning the Indian-Chinese border and it could be possible for a large-scale ground force, should it be assembled in the border area, to attack and occupy a disputed area without necessarily seeking to advance further inland.
Kris Osborn is the Military Affairs Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in /lComparative Literature from Columbia University
