By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
(Washington DC) The F-35 and F-15EX are so different in so many respects that comparing them might not make sense.
Yet, the two aircraft have been analyzed in relation to one another for years, given the ongoing debates about whether it makes sense to add a 4th-generation “plus” plane in more significant numbers and reduce the size of the F-35 buy.
Just several years, debate, analysis, and even controversy likely reverberated through the halls at the Pentagon regarding the wisdom of the F-15EX, a 4th-gen ++ aircraft intended as an advanced, multi-role fighter designed to expand lethality, sensing, and targeting beyond previous variants of the aircraft.
F-15EX vs. F-35
Like the F-35, the F-15EX does have cutting edge and highly sensitive Advanced Electronically Scanned Array radar technology as well as advanced high-speed computing, however, the aircraft is extremely different and less capable than an F-35 in a number of key respects.
Perhaps of greatest significance, the F-15EX is not stealthy. Lack of stealth is likely to prove extremely problematic in high-threat enemy territory. The most advanced and rapidly emerging Russian and Chinese-built air defenses are now much more likely to operate with an ability to detect even stealth aircraft to some degree.
This an emerging reality that continues to present something of a predicament for U.S.weapons developers seeking to preserve air supremacy against major power rivals. Russian media claims that its upgraded S-400 and S-500 air defense systems can detect and destroy stealth aircraft, may have yet to be verified in some measurable way, and there is, of course, a massive margin of difference between merely “detecting” something in some capacity and actually being able to shoot it down.
Chinese HQ-9 air defenses, reported to have appeared in areas around the South China Sea, are a fast-growing and serious threat as well.“The HQ-9 is capable of engaging multiple aircraft, including combat aircraft. It resembles the Russian S-300 system but China is assessed to have developed variants of the system with a longer range, potentially up to 230 kilometers,” a DW report writes.
A Jet Without a Mission?
Considering these factors, some are likely to wonder if the F-15EX is an aircraft without a clearly defined mission.
Does the aircraft linger in a certain kind of liminal uncertainty, meaning that it might be overqualified for most uncontested environments yet insufficient to counter the highest threat or most contested environments, such as those containing Russian or Chinese air defenses?
The F-15EX is, at least in terms of its external configuration, modeled upon 1980s engineering, yet it does contain quantum-like improvements in computing, radar range and sensitivity, avionics, sensing and weaponry.
However, it simply is not stealthy – and that fact simply won’t change.
Its construction, configuration, coating, and external shape do not resemble the stealthy exterior of an F-22 or F-35, and it does not appear to have an internal weapons bay. As a 4th-Gen 1980s airframe, the F-15EX is not as flat, sloped, or rounded as a fifth-generation plane and is most likely not built with a mind to seams, bolts, and other attachments specific to procedures needed to construct a stealth aircraft.
The F-15EX also has a protruding cockpit, much like the original variants, and some sharp edges, likely to generate a stronger radar return signal.
Just several years, debate, analysis, and even controversy likely reverberated through the halls at the Pentagon regarding the wisdom of the F-15EX, a 4th-gen ++ aircraft intended as an advanced, multi-role fighter designed to expand lethality, sensing, and targeting beyond previous variants of the aircraft.
F-15EX: Worth the Budget Dollars?
While the F-15EX did incorporate several cutting-edge innovations and expanded air-combat capacity for US Air Force fourth-generation aircraft, some questioned the rationale for the plane for several critical reasons related to today’s threat environment.
Perhaps most of all, the aircraft simply may not be stealthy enough to survive against Russian or Chinese air defenses, many of which have been massively upgraded in recent years.
Russian media, for instance, often writes that its advanced S-500 air defense system can detect some stealth aircraft, a claim which may or may not be true.
What is known is that advanced air defenses operate with next-generation computer processing, digital networking between systems, and an ability to hit aircraft at longer ranges on a greater number of frequencies.
The US Air Force has been upgrading the F-15 for many years, giving it Advanced Electronically Scanned Array radar and new generations of sensing and computing.
Yet, all of its many innovations may prove less relevant if the aircraft cannot operate against sophisticated great power rivals.
However, even if the F-15EX is primarily capable of performing missions in a less-contested environment, it does fly with a large and very lethal payload.
On this point, an essay fr
om several years ago in the EurAsian Times says the F-15EX operates with as many as 12 air-to-air missiles and can carry 13.6 tons of payload.
F-15EX Against Russian & Chinese Air Defenses
At the same time, if the aircraft is not stealthy enough to operate against the most advanced air defenses, is it truly worth the expense?
This is also likely a question that continues to receive attention among weapons developers because if the F-15EX is only capable in permissive environments, it may be somewhat of an advanced aircraft without a clear mission.
Many other less-expensive and upgraded aircraft can function in a “bomb truck” type of capacity, which raises questions about the utility or mission concept for the F-15EX.
The Mass Option
There is yet another key factor which might help explain the rationale for the F-15EX, and it pertains to the question of “mass” or major warfare.
For instance, should there be a massive air-war engagement between the US and Russia or China, there will clearly be a place for a 4th-gen “Plus” type of aircraft able to win against enemy 4th-gen.
The Chinese, for instance, have hundreds of J-10s, and the Russians operate hundreds of Su-27s and Su-30s, aircraft which would likely need to be engaged and destroyed in any kind of massive air war involving large numbers of planes.
Clearly, Russian and Chinese 5th-generation aircraft need to be destroyed, yet a large-scale or protracted engagement would also present the need to eliminate both Russia and China’s large fleet of 4th-generation aircraft. This is a mission for which the F-15EX might be exceptionally well suited.
Does this mean the F-15EX is worth the cost?
Available data suggest the F-15EX costs roughly $80 million per plane. Cost savings advantages associated with the F-15EX, when compared to buying larger numbers of F-35s, may not make sense, given that the price-per-plane of the F-35 is slated to drop to $89 million.
Given all these factors, one might wonder if the F-15EX lingers in a certain kind of liminal uncertainty. It might be overqualified for most uncontested environments yet insufficient to counter the highest threat or most contested environments, such as those containing Russian or Chinese air defenses.
Kris Osborn is the Military Affairs Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
