by Jim Morris, Warrior Vice President, News
It’s been a big story for much of the last year. But now, with the world’s attention focused on Israel and Lebanon, could China use the opportunity to ramp up the pressure on Taiwan?
China now has all three of its aircraft carriers at sea for the first time. Meanwhile, the US has moved naval and air assets to the Middle East, a move which Politico says “comes at a high cost for the Navy. It also leaves the Indo-Pacific shorthanded as ships are pulled into the Middle East to protect American forces and battle Houthi missiles and drones targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea.”
Earlier this week, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III ordered the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and its escort group to stay in the region. A month ago, the carrier was diverted from a planned deployment to Pacific to head to the Middle East.
Another carrier, the Theodore Roosevelt, was deployed to the Middle East over the summer. It left the region September 12th and has now returned to the eastern Pacific Ocean. And the USS George Washington left San Diego this week for its home port in Japan.
The conventional wisdom is that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan wouldn’t happen until 2027. Reportedly, Chinese President Xi Jinping told his military leaders they needed to be ready for an attack by then.
According to Defense News, “2027 has exposed a rift in Washington’s China strategy. The US is more focused on the country it calls its ‘pacing challenge,” but experts disagree on whether it’s running a sprint or a marathon – and if it can prepare for both.”
And of course, there’s no guarantee a Chinese invasion of Taiwan won’t happen before 2027. But while Beijing has ramped up the pressure on Taiwan in the last year, with more and larger military maneuvers near the island, there are signs that the Chinese military is aware of some shortcomings.
Last spring, The Telegraph reported that China was probably analyzing Iran’s failed drone and missile attack on Israel to see what that would mean for an invasion of Taiwan. Israel, the US and other allies shot down most of the projectiles.
“They will be picking apart what transpired, not just in the way in which the Iranians attacked but also how we responded – the Israelis and the coalition that supported them,” the president of the US-Taiwan Business Council, Rupert Hammond-Chambers, told The Telegraph.
“The walk-away for the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) will be that the Americans and their allies have the technology to significantly blunt an attack.”
This week’s Iranian missile attack on Israel – which saw many of the 180 projectiles shot down – is likely to have the Chinese military revisiting the issue. Still, it’s not believed that Taiwan’s anti-missile defenses are up to par with Israel’s.
Meanwhile, last Sunday, President Biden approved $567 million in defense spending for Taiwan. It’s the largest American aid package ever for the island.
China responded predictably, saying that “no matter how many weapons the United States supplies to Taiwan, it will never weaken our firm will in opposing Taiwanese independence…”
