By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
Many observers and Pentagon experts are quick to recognize the fast-growing Chinese Naval threat in terms of fleet size, industrial production capacity and weapons and technology sophistication, as the People’s Liberation Army – Navy is now larger than the US Navy. While this certainly does not mean it is superior by any estimation, there is little question the Pentagon takes the threat quite seriously given the pace at which China is adding new carriers, destroyers and amphibious assault ships.
At the same time, lurking beneath the shadows of China’s Naval threat is the at times “under-recognized” PLA Air Force, a fast-evolving force which is progressing in what is clearly a transparent attempt to rival, catch and eventually “out-match” US power in the skies. Although the PRC is known to operate slightly more than 100 5th-generation J-20 Stealth aircraft, the PLA AF does at the moment not appear capable of rivaling an integrated US and allied force of 5th-generation aircraft. The J-20 is land-launched and arguably less well-equipped for air supremacy when compared to the F-22 and F-35, although its potential ability to rival US 5th-generation aircraft may be unknown as it likely pertains to variables such as the J-20s sensor range, targeting, weapons, mission systems and computing.
China’s nascent carrier-launched stealth J-31C jet, is likely to present much more of a threat to US 5th-generation aircraft, provided it is armed with comparable sensing, weapons targeting, computing and aerial maneuverability. The challenge for the PRC, however, is it is not clear just how far along or advanced the aircraft is. Public Chinese-government backed news reports have for years detailed upgrades, enhancements and capabilities related to the J-31, however there appear to be only a small number of prototypes. Could the J-31 evolve to the point where it could rival or somehow match the US carrier-launched F-35C and amphib-launched F-35B?
5th & 6th-Generation Air Attacks to Continue into 2050
A model of the PLA’s FC-31 was recently on display at the World Defense Show 2024 in Saudi Arabia, and the model looks almost indistinguishable from an F-35, at least in terms of external configuration. Many public reports, including Pentagon essays and Congressional research projects have indicated that indeed it appears Chinese cyberespionage may have resulted in the theft of US weapons specs ….to include the F-35. Replicating the external design features, however, does not mean the J-31 has comparable mission systems, computing, targeting, weaponry or composite, radar absorbing coating materials.
The J-31-F-35 design similarities are not only recognizable to the observers eye, but they are also specifically cited in a Chinese newspaper as far back as 2013. The Chinese-government-backed “People’s Daily Online” essay in 2013 cites specific design similarities, writing “the J-31 and F-35 use the same DSI inlet (non boundary-layer separated land supersonic inlet).”
Also, the J-31 appears to operate with an internal weapons bay, a similarity recognized by AeroCorner, a publication which lists an extensive amount of “specs” a
nd performance parameters of the J-31, also called the Shenyang FC-31.
Regardless, the Pentagon is likely to be taking the J-31 seriously, as a Chinese ability to project 5th-generation air power from the sea would without question present challenges for the Pentagon. “The fifth generation jet fighter Shenyang FC-31 features exceptional maneuverability, stealth design, and an internal weapons bay, as well as upgraded avionics and sensors that provide situational awareness improvements, enhancements in radar tracking and targeting capacities, together with an upgraded electronic warfare system,” Aerocorner writes.
Aerocorner states that the J-31 flies with two RD-93 afterburning turbofan engines and flies at roughly Mach 1.8 with a max cruise speed of 1080 knots. The Aerocorner specs say the J-31 can reach 65,000 feet and, perhaps most surprisingly, operates with a range of 2,160 nautical miles.
This range seems quite significant in terms of combat attack reach, in large measure because available specs list the F-35C as having a range of at least 1,300 nautical miles. The F-35C specs to say “at least,” something which leaves the door open to its range being longer, yet there may indeed be a substantial range disparity.
The Aerocorner specs do say the J-31 operates with AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar, a technology often able to track multiple targets simultaneously. However, US Air Force wargames have shown that the F-35 can “see” and “destroy” 4th-generation enemy aircraft from undetectable stand-off ranges, something which allows a single aircraft to destroy multiple enemy fighters in the air at ranges from which it is itself undetected. This pertains to the range, image fidelity and computing related to its well-known EO/IR high-resolution targeting and 360-degree sensors called the Distributed Aperture System. Also, often called a “flying computer,” the F-35 is known for its sensor fusion, threat data library called Mission Data Files and high-speed computer processing. The operative question therefore is, to what extent can the J-31 replicate this range and fidelity? If not, then it will not likely have much of a chance against an F-35C.
Alongside questions about weapons performance parameters and technological capability, there is the clear, simple matter of numbers. The PLA is believed to operate only a few prototype J-31s, whereas US and allied nations in the Pacific already operate hundreds of F-35s.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
