By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The US Navy, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Singapore are all F-35 countries, a scenario which introduces the possibility that an US-allied coalition of 5th-gen aircraft could potentially “encircle” China in a few years.
It may seem unusual to think of the particular impact of a single platform or weapons system such as the F-35, given that the aircraft is intended to function as part of an integrated, joint, multi-domain war campaign. However, the growing multi-national force of F-35s in the Pacific theater is increasingly positioned to exact a far-reaching and multi-dimensional impact upon the deterrence equation in the region, particularly when operating within a larger multi-domain warfare system.
A full semi-circular defensive F-35 ring around the Pacific might still be several years away as more F-35s arrive in Japan and other areas throughout the region, yet a simple glance at a map of F-35 nations would seem to suggest that indeed an allied US-force could literally “encircle” China throughout the Pacific with a 5th-generation air “wall.” Singapore, Australia, South Korea, Japan and forward operating US F-35s could potentially stretch across the theater functioning as stealthy, networked 5th-generation ISR, targeting and attack aircraft. Also, a lesser recognized and yet-to-exist possibility for this equation would be the optimally positioned Philippines. With an expanded US military presence in the Philippines, why not base US F-35s there?
The expansion of the F-35 across the Pacific could accurately be described as explosive, due to a number of key variables. Within recent years, Japan has solidified a massive, $35 billion F-35 acquisition, bringing a large ocean and land-launched 5th-generation JSFs to a growing network across the Pacific. Australia and South Korea are also F-35 countries and the lesser recognized but critical country of Singapore is increasing its F-35 buy as well. These countries, particularly when combined with sea-based US-Navy F-35s operating from carriers and amphibs, can literally “encircle” the Pacific in a ring of networked F-35 aircraft. This prospect is immeasurably strengthened by the F-35’s Multi-Function Data Link (MADL) which enables F-35s from all the countries to securely and seamlessly share data across the entire Pacific theater. This means Japanese and South Korean F-35s could seek air superiority along the Sea of Japan and Korean peninsula, stretching down below Japan’s Southern Island Chain. Should Japanese F-35s take off from Japan’s Southernmost points, they could help secure air zones North of Taiwan and, with refueling, reach Taiwanese airspace. Forward positioned US carriers and amphibs could occupy a critical central position West of Taiwan, placing 5th-generation aircraft within striking range of Taiwan or parts of the South China Sea depending upon where they operate in the central and SouthEast areas of the Pacific. Should Singapore be inclined to support a China deterrence F-35 coalition, its Air Force could protect the South Western Pacific air space from Chinese air attack. Singapore just increased it number of purchased F-35s up to 12, and its F-35s could connect with SouthEastern Pacific Australian F-35s to complete the air-dominance circle throughout the Pacific.
It may take several years before large numbers of Japanese F-35s arrive, yet the Japanese Self-Defense Maritime Force is acquiring ocean-based F-35Bs capable of transiting South of Japan to skies above Taiwan traveling on Japanese mini-carriers.
Philippine F-35s?
Alongside the growing F-35 presence throughout the Pacific, the massively stepped-up cooperation between the US and Philippines could be among the most decisive elements in any China-deterrence cooperation. The Philippines has recently expanded its Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) with the United States and, as discussed by Warrior Editorial Fellow Johnny Franks, added four new locations enabling US military access. Strategically and geographically speaking, the Philippines are arguably the most critically positioned land-area within reach of Taiwan. Franks writes that “Four new locations for US military access have been identified: Camilo Osias Naval Base in Sta Ana, Lal-lo Airport in Cagayan Province, Camp Melchor Dela Cruz in Gamu, Isabela Province, and the Island of Balabac near Palawan.”
The Northern Philippines are merely a few hundred miles or, at most, roughly 400-to-600 nautical miles from airspace over Taiwan, distances well within the attack range of land-launched F-35As. US F-35s have trained with Philippine forces, yet perhaps larger numbers of the aircraft could permanently be based in some of the new US military bases there. The tactical significance of this cannot be overstated, as the US Air Force now operates more than 300 F-35s, and placing a large force of F-35s within range to defend Taiwan without needing refueling introduces unprecedented air power projection in the Pacific. This is particularly true when it comes to a simple numbers equation, as the PLA Air Force is believed to operate roughly 120 J-20s or so. Assuming the J-20s can rival an F-35, a possibility which has not been verified and lends itself to considerable questioning, the J-20 is land-based and larger and arguably less maneuverable than an F-35. The unknown factor in this kind of match up, it seems clear, would be the extent to which J-20 sensors, mission systems, computing, weapons and targeting were comparable to an F-35. This seems to be the most operative question, however even if it were comparable, a PRC J-20 force would be well-outnumbered by a US-Japan-South Korea-Singaporean multinational F-35 force fortified by Philippine-based US F-35s. The US territory of Guam is more than 1,700 km East of Taiwan, making access difficult but not impossible with aerial refueling. An observer’s conclusion would therefore seem quite clear … with the expanded US military presence in the Philippines, why not base US F-35s and F-22s in the Philippines?
What this suggests is that, in terms of simply observation and geographical reality throughout the vast Pacific, the US would be extremely well advised to place impactful numbers of F-35s in the Philippines, as it would fill a middle gap in an F-35 semi-circle spanning from well-South of the South China Sea to North of the Korean Peninsula and Sea of Japan. From Singapore to Northern Japan, a multi-national semicircle of F-35s could provide a protective air-supremacy sphere of great consequence to defending Taiwan and deterring or defeating any Chinese attack throughout the entire Pacific.
The most critical reinforcing element of this semicircle would arguably be the forward positioning of US Navy 5th-generation air power, given that US Carriers can launch as many as 50 or more F-35Cs, and America-class amphibs can operate with 20 F-35s. This places ocean-launched 5th-generation air power in position to complete a robust and potentially impenetrable “wall” of networked allied F-35s across the Pacific.
F-35 as Multi-Domain Sensor
Perhaps now more than ever and increasingly moving into the future, the F-35 will operate as an attack platform, sensor node, ISR platform, flying computer system, aerial gateway and mothership aircraft operating small groups of nearby drones. The F-35 has already operated in a critical missile de
fense capacity, operating as an aerial sensor within the Army’s Integrated Battle Command System and the Navy’s anti-ship cruise missile defense system known as Naval Integrated Fire Control-Counter Air (NIFC-CA). In each of these instances, the F-35 operated as a critical targeting and aerial sensor node able to identify threat specifics and “relay” time-sensitive information back to ship-and-land-based fire control systems, giving commanders a much longer time window through which to determine an optimal response, defense or counterattack. The F-35 has specifically demonstrated an ability to operate as an aerial gateway in both NIFC-CA and IBCS, meaning it can serve as a critical link between ground-based radar, surface ships, aerial drones, satellites and numerous command and control hubs positioned throughout the theater. This means F-35s can perform drone-like functions, transit target data between ground, air and surface nodes or even use weapons to intercept or destroy an enemy ballistic missile from the air or on the ground before launch. Air-ground connectivity in support of land-attack missions is also critical to F-35 operational capability, as in 2020 at the Army’s Project Convergence, US Marine Corps F-35Bs demonstrated an ability to share real-time targeting data with dismounted, ground-based soldiers.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
