By Logan Williams, Warrior Editorial Fellow
The Center for Security and International Studies (CSIS) conducted a survey of the opinions of various defense and foreign relations experts, from the United States and Taiwan, alike, which it published on January 22nd, 2024.
CSIS asked these experts to provide their expert analysis on a number of crucial questions, in regards to the boiling tensions in the Indo-Pacific. These scholars’ answers paint an interesting picture of the potential for future conflict with China.
First, it is important to note that over 70-percent of these scholars stated that China did not possess the military might to pull off a successful amphibious assault upon Taiwan, and the Taiwanese experts were even more confident of the PRC’s weakness, than those from the United States.
Secondly, in all instances, less than half of these experts described themselves as “completely confident” that the United States would intervene on Taiwan’s behalf, in the face of Chinese aggression.
Furthermore, in all instances of varying degrees of Chinese aggression, confidence remained exceptionally low that the United States’ partners and allies would step up, to assist the United States in defense of Taiwan.
Importantly, close to two-thirds of both the United States’ and Taiwanese experts stated that it was “likely” or “very likely” that the Taiwan Strait would conflagrate into a crisis, within this year — 2024. It is also important to note that these experts were in agreement, that the United States’ diplomatic efforts and attempts to salvage U.S.–PRC relations, would be ineffective and could do nothing to prevent conflict.
Terrifyingly, approximately 40-percent of these experts stated that Taiwan would not be able to last a month without direct and robust U.S. military intervention. About another 40-percent stated – perhaps, more like hoped – that Taiwan could hold out for one to three months. Very few experts believed that it was possible for Taiwan to survive any longer than that. This should end any Western fantasies about Taiwan carrying on like the courageous freedom fighters in Ukraine, who have held the beastly Russian invader at bay, for nearly two years.
Equally concerning is the fact that approximately 40-percent of these experts believed that China could sustain a high-intensity conflict, or a war of attrition, for more than a year — with over a third of U.S. experts stating that China could do so, indefinitely.
The United States must ensure that it communicates the gravity with which it views its promises to the Taiwanese people, thereby adopting a strategy of strategic clarity, and contributing to the more effective deterrence of Chinese aggression. The United States must also insist that its allies clarify their intended role in a future Indo-Pacific conflcit, to provide China with the credible threat of a unified Western response to any aggression.
Logan Williams currently studies at the University of Connecticut. He is an International Affairs Researcher; Work Published in Newspapers, Magazines, and Journals, Such As: Geopolitics Magazine, Modern Diplomacy, Tufts University’s The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Democracy Paradox, Diario Las Américas, International Affairs Forum, Fair Observer, History Is Now Magazine, UNC at Chapel Hill’s American Diplomacy, The Center for Military Modernization’s Warrior Maven Magazine,
