by Olawale Abaire, Warrior Editorial Fellow
Air Force Commits $3.7 Billion to Sentinel ICBM in 2025
The United States Air Force has allocated a significant amount of its budget for the development of the Sentinel Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) program.
For fiscal year 2025, the Air Force has earmarked $3.7 billion specifically for the Sentinel program. This is part of the Department of the Air Force’s larger $217.5 billion budget for the same fiscal year.
Interestingly, the Sentinel Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) program is a major part of the United States’ nuclear deterrence strategy, which has been a significant focus of the Air Force’s budgetary considerations.
The ICBM is intended to replace the aging LGM-30 Minuteman III missiles, designed and managed by Northrop Grumman that have been in service since the 1970s. However, funding for the Sentinel ICBM comes at a time when the Air Force is facing broader budgetary pressures, including potential cuts that could impact modernization efforts across the service.
But, the Sentinel program has been seen as too critical to national defense to be delayed or scaled back, underscoring the priority it holds within the Air Force’s strategic planning.
The initial cost estimate for the Sentinel ICBM program was around $96 billion. Now, the recent reports indicate that the cost has increased to over $131 billion, representing an increase of at least 37% over the pre-pandemic cost estimate. This cost overrun has triggered a Nunn-McCurdy breach, a provision that requires the Department of Defense (DoD) to notify Congress when a program incurs a cost or schedule overrun of more than 15%.
The budget for the Sentinel program is split into different parts: $61.6 billion is for buying the equipment, $25.5 billion is for research and making sure everything works properly, and $8.7 billion is for building the necessary facilities. For the year 2024, the Pentagon has asked for $4.3 billion to be spent on researching, developing, and buying Sentinel equipment. This is $700 million more than what was given for these purposes in the previous year’s budget.
Despite the cost overrun and delay, the Sentinel ICBM program remains a top priority for the department of defence (DoD). The program is considered critical due to the rapid modernization of China’s nuclear arsenal. The US Strategic Command revealed that China now has more ICBM launchers than the US military, although not as many actual missiles or warheads/
Furthermore, the Air Force is currently exploring various options to cover the $35 billion gap between the Sentinel ICBM’s projected cost and the recently revised estimate. All options are on the table, and the trade-offs may not be direct. The Air Force may have to fund the overrun out of expected budgets, which would limit the amount of money available for other programs.
In conclusion, the Sentinel ICBM program represents a significant portion of the Air Force’s budget. Despite the cost overrun and delay, the program remains a top priority due to its strategic importance. The Air Force and the DoD are actively working to address the challenges and ensure the program remains on track.
OLAWALE ABAIRE is a researcher, writer and analyst who has written over 75 nonfiction books, He has master’s degree in Biochemistry from Adekunle Ajasin University, Nigeria. He also works as a web content writer with the revered International Lean Six Sigma Institute, UK
