A tighter military-industrial relationship between Beijing and Moscow could open the door to accelerated vertical take-off fighter development for both powers.
As China’s Navy continues its rapid progress, teething problems are inevitable, and recent reports suggest that there have been issues with its first carrier-borne fighter, the J-15. Indeed, the PLA Navy’s aircraft carrier force has suffered its first pilot casualties in carrier training and testing operations. To be sure, carrier operations are inherently dangerous, so such setbacks are not at all surprising. Yet, they do prompt questions about the future of Chinese naval aviation, more generally.
The Chinese military press has been rife with speculation for years about whether either J-20 or J-31 could form the basis for the next generation PLA Navy carrier-borne combat aircraft. There have been very substantial hints, moreover, of a Chinese combat drone (similar to the U.S. Navy X-47) that could be launched from carriers. In this Dragon Eye column, I have frequently noted that PLA Navy helicopter aviation, notably the Z-18 and the Z-20 models, coming online in the next decade will have an equally important role in the evolving military balance in the Asia-Pacific region. These new helicopters will operate off many PLAN vessels, including the much-anticipated Type 075 helicopter carrier that is now perhaps being built. But an interesting question remains—will Beijing’s naval planners opt for vertically launched (STOVL) fighters as well? In other words, does China want its own F-35B?
In this column a couple of years ago, I broached that same question and presented some evidence, including a Chinese source claiming that Beijing had imported a Russian Yak-141 STOVL prototype back in 1994 to study. Here, the plot thickens just slightly as a late 2017 issue of the Chinese naval magazine Naval and Merchant Ships [舰船知识] featured a lengthy and detailed translation of an interview with one of the Soviet Union’s top STOVL test pilots, Andrei Sinitsyn [Андрей Синицын]. The tantalizing Chinese headline reads: “Surpassing the F35-B? [超越F-35B?]”