Pentagon 6th-Gen Budget: What’s The Cost in Lives & Dollars if its Not Built?

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

(Washington DC) What is the potential cost in lives if the Pentagon decides to cancel the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program to develop a sixth-generation stealth fighter jet?

Whatever it may be, this incalculable quantity cannot be associated with any dollar value. Human lives are priceless, and more American servicemembers will likely risk injury or death in combat in a future without a sixth-generation U.S. aircraft. Adversaries such as China and Russia are not only producing fifth-generation aircraft already — the Su-57 and J-31 — but they are also stewarding their own sixth-generation efforts. That means we have to ponder the consequences of an enemy able to establish air supremacy over the United States in a war.

Decision-makers need to be aware of those consequences when they consider concerns that the NGAD program simply costs too much. Should an adversary have reason to believe they could quickly achieve air supremacy in an engagement, the U.S. loses the ability to deter a war.

An actual combat engagement in which the U.S. loses air superiority, or perhaps never even establishes it, is unthinkable right now. If it became a reality, it could be catastrophic in terms of lives lost and damaged technologies, platforms, and systems.

The Pentagon and military services should of course make every effort to reduce costs by solidifying requirements and streamlining supply chain complexities. The U.S. Air Force plans to spend as much as $2.3 billion on NGAD in 2024, and costs are likely to increase as production and prototyping ramp up more fully.

As is often the case with new, paradigm-breaking technologies, up-front costs tend to be much higher than regular production costs, in large measure due to what is called non-recurring developmental costs. This was the case with the highly visible U.S. Navy Ford-class aircraft carrier program, which received consistent criticisms for delays and cost overruns. By contrast, the B-21 program has largely been on time and on budget, suggesting that large program development can vary considerably depending on the technologies involved and the overall maturity of the design.

Yet another factor to consider with the NGAD is the value-added of digital engineering, which is a big reason why early prototypes are already airborne, years ahead of what was anticipated. By using advanced computer simulations to replicate parameters for weapons performance, designers and engineers can assess multiple options without needing to first “bend metal.”