Should the Pentagon Move More F-35s & F-22s to Pacific to Deter China?

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

(Washington D.C.) It would make a lot of sense and greatly reinforce the Pentagon’s deterrence posture in the Pacific if there were immediate moves to forward position as many 5th-generation aircraft as possible such as F-22s and F-35s.

Why? For the same reason the Pentagon needed to send more F-35s to Eastern Europe right away following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. At the moment, it seem unlikely that either Russia or China could truly challenge the US and NATO in the air.

China is likely aware of this, as its smaller number of J-20s can only launch from land-runways and its carrier-launched J-31 is just arriving. The US Air Force alone, however, has more than 300 F-35s. Even if a J-20 could rival an F-35 in the air, and there are few if any indications that it could, there simply are not enough of them to counter multiple squadrons of networked US F-35s. “Mass matters,” to quote the famous Sun Tzu. Should the US achieve air superiority quickly in some kind of war over Taiwan with China, Chinese amphibious attacks could rapidly be destroyed from the air.

The challenge with this is simply finding a way to get enough of them forward positioned to present a credible and available deterrent against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. An ability to get there fast enough in large enough numbers would seem to be the challenge, as 5th-generation US and allied aircraft would need to be within striking distance of a Chinese amphibious attack on the surface. Taiwan is only 100 miles from mainland China and could quickly be reached by land-launched J-20s or amphibious warfare formations on the surface. On top of this, China has a sizable arsenal of ballistic missiles capable of reaching Taiwan.

The challenge for the US, then, would seem to reside in finding a way to get enough forward positioned F35s such that China would be forced to pause or simply hold off on an invasion. How might US F-35s get there? Well, Japan has recently launched a very large, multi billion F-35 buy, but the timing of their arrival in large numbers may not yet be known. However, the key part of the Southern Japanese islands are within 500-to-600 miles of Taiwan. There is also the US territory of Guam which is within striking distance of Taiwan, however Australia and most parts of South East Asia may be too far away for F-35s to arrive in time to destroy a Chinese amphibious landing.