US F-35s Deploy to Poland

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

The Pentagon is moving 5th-generation stealth airpower Eastward in what appears to be an effort to send a “deterrence” message to Russia regarding the Baltics and Eastern Europe increasingly believed to be at risk of Russian attack. Four US F-35s have replaced existing 4th-generation aircraft and ushered in a new phase of 5th-generation stealth deterrence along the Eastern European border with Russia. The arriving F-35 Lightning IIs have begun operations at Lask Air Base, Poland, a service statement explained.

“The aircraft replaced four F-16 Fighting Falcons from the 52nd Fighter Wing, based at Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, to continue integration with NATO Allies,” a statement from US Air Forces in Europe said. “This capability is critical for a timely and coordinated response, if and when called upon.” Operating from forward locations allows U.S. Air Force Airmen to live, train, and operate alongside European counterparts while enabling NATO’s collective defense capabilities.”

Looking at NATO’s defensive posture, and the growing multinational force of F-35s, the arrival of additional F-35s seems to make strategic sense, particularly in light of increasing Russian threats related to its Ukraine campaign, nuclear threats and inflammatory anti-NATO rhetoric.

The number of countries now acquiring, developing and deploying F-35s has doubled in recent years, and NATO’s ability to field a collective, networked, multinational force of 5th-generation aircraft cannot be underestimated. The reason for this seems as clear as it is self-evident, because NATO air supremacy does appear to be a distinct and recognizable NATO advantage in the event of a conflict with Russia. Certainly Russia is known for a large armored ground force, as GlobalFirepower.com lists the Russian military as operating 14, 777 tanks. However, placing the question of air supremacy aside, Russia’s ground force would not seem to be well positioned for any ground attack on a NATO country. Russia’s tanks have been decimated by Ukrainian defenders and many of its vehicles have likely not been modernized.

However, apart from of any land comparison, it does appear NATO and the West operate with a large and decisive air power advantage. Aside from capability, the US and Europe would appear to have a massive 5th-generation numbers advantage. Russia’s Ministry of Defense currently lists that its military operates 22 Su-57s with at least 76 more on order, according to an interesting essay from Bulgarianmilitary.com. Looking at simple math, NATO operates close to six-times the number of 5th-generation aircraft.

“Today, there are approximately 120 F-35s in Europe across six countries. By the 2030, we expect more than 500 F-35s will integrate from more than 10 European countries, including two full U.S. F-35 squadrons at RAF Lakenheath in the UK,” a Lockheed Martin essay on the F-35 states.